Bitcoin price near 2026 lows after crash

by June 30, 2026 drops to 0%8%

Bitcoin plunged below $62,000, reaching near February 2026 lows, with year-to-date decline of 30% after 13 days of ETF outflows.

Order book data indicates potential Bitcoin rally toward $70K

by December 31, 2026 dips to 6%1%

Market structure analysis revealed buy-side dominance and a key liquidity cluster, suggesting bullish momentum and possible price recovery. This supported renewed optimism for Bitcoin's price growth later in 2026, reinforcing the possibility of reaching $150k by December 31, 2026.

Bitcoin price prediction sentiment turns bearish

by December 31, 2026 drops to 6%5%

Multiple price prediction models updated to bearish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, citing technical indicators and market conditions.

Bitcoin price rebounds 3.4% after Trump claims war has ended

Following President Trump's statement about a possible end to conflict, Bitcoin prices rebounded by 3.4%, reflecting improved risk sentiment and temporary relief in the market, though not enough to significantly alter mid-year price forecasts.

Standard Chartered declares crypto winter over, cycle low likely at $59K

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%3%

Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research declared that Bitcoin likely found its cycle low at $59,000, marking a major sentiment shift. This announcement provided some bullish sentiment but did not significantly revive the prediction market prices for $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin price surges 3% after Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran

Following news that President Trump canceled planned military strikes on Iran, Bitcoin's price surged 3% on June 11, 2026, from $61,100 to over $63,400. This geopolitical development temporarily boosted market sentiment but did not significantly alter the overall downward trend in probabilities for hitting $150k by June 30, 2026.

Bitcoin price surges 3% after Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran

by June 30, 2026 rises to 3%2%

Following news that President Trump canceled planned military strikes on Iran and a potential peace deal, Bitcoin surged 3% from $61,100 to over $63,400. This geopolitical de-escalation improved risk sentiment but was insufficient to sustain a strong rally toward $150K by mid-2026.

Nasdaq-listed firm Fold sells $45M in Bitcoin to clear debt

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Fold, a Nasdaq-listed company, sold $45 million worth of Bitcoin at around $71,000 to repay loans and fund expansion. This institutional selling contributed to market caution and price consolidation, negatively impacting short-term price outlooks.

Bitcoin price falls below $60,000 amid bearish market sentiment

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Bitcoin's price dropped below $60,000 in early June 2026, reflecting bearish technical indicators such as oversold RSI and negative MACD. This decline further reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by June 30, 2026, pushing the probability to 0%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record third consecutive day of outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 9, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows totaling $77.44 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund. This outflow reflected waning investor confidence and contributed to a decline in Bitcoin price probabilities for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Third Consecutive Day of Outflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $77.44 million in net outflows on June 9, extending a 10-day streak of nearly $3 billion in redemptions that severely reduced buying pressure and dragged Bitcoin prices down.

Strategy's Bitcoin Sale and ETF Outflows Weigh on Market Sentiment

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

The disclosure of Bitcoin sales by Strategy and continued ETF outflows in early June 2026 contributed to bearish sentiment, pushing Bitcoin prices near 2026 lows and reducing confidence in near-term price rallies.

Bitcoin price hits lowest level since November 2024, erasing post-Trump rally gains

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Bitcoin dropped below $74,000 in June 2026, marking a new low for the year and erasing gains from the January rally, reflecting ongoing market weakness and skepticism about reaching $150k by mid-2026.

Bernstein reaffirms bullish $150,000 Bitcoin forecast despite mid-year correction

Despite recent price declines and institutional selling, Bernstein maintained a bullish outlook for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, citing institutional depth and potential for renewed rallies, supporting the year-end $150k target probabilities.

Bitcoin shows buying pressure, surging toward $63,000 amid accumulation

By June 7, 2026, Bitcoin faced buying pressure and minor accumulation after prior declines, with price surging toward $63,000. This suggested potential for recovery and renewed optimism for longer-term price targets including $150k by year-end.

Launch of ESG-focused Bitcoin ETF offers bullish counter-narrative amid sell-off

The new ESG Bitcoin ETF launched on the NYSE provided some support to Bitcoin prices during a broader market sell-off, helping to stabilize sentiment slightly despite ongoing downward pressure.

Bitcoin Plunges Below $62,000 Triggering Massive Long Liquidations

Bitcoin breached the critical $62,000 support level, leading to $1.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations amid accelerating ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions.

Massive $2.7 billion outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs pressures price

by June 30, 2026 drops to 0%8%

In early June 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a loss of $2.7 billion in one week, contributing to Bitcoin's price decline below $62,000. This outflow intensified selling pressure and shifted investor interest toward other sectors, further reducing confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid or end 2026.

Bitcoin Plunges Toward $60,000 as AI Boom Drains Capital from Crypto Markets

Analysts and prominent maximalists noted that massive capital rotation into artificial intelligence infrastructure and tech equities drained vital liquidity from Bitcoin, driving its price down.

Bitcoin trades near $62,000 amid mixed market sentiment and regulatory progress

By early June 2026, Bitcoin traded around $62,000 with mixed market sentiment. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption continued to influence price, but bearish technical indicators and macro uncertainties kept probabilities for $150k low.

Bitcoin price plunges below $60,000, lowest since October 2024

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 5, 2026, Bitcoin price dropped below $60,000, marking its lowest level since October 2024, reflecting intensified bearish sentiment and confirming the market's rejection of the $150k target within the timeframe.

Bitcoin price drops below $64,000 amid inflation and Fed uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%

Bitcoin fell from an intraweek high of $72,840 to around $64,100 due to sticky inflation concerns and uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts, triggering bearish sentiment and price decline.

Bitcoin price falls below $65,000 amid ETF outflows and macroeconomic concerns

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 4, 2026, Bitcoin traded around $64,100 after failing to hold support near $74,000, driven by ETF outflows, profit-taking, and macroeconomic uncertainty, further depressing the 'by June 30, 2026' outcome probability.

Bitcoin ETFs face 13-day outflow streak

by June 30, 2026 drops to 0%7%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with nearly $2.3 billion in net outflows, dragging Bitcoin price down sharply.

Bitcoin market slumps amid continued ETF outflows and broader crypto sell-off

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 4, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin fell sharply amid ongoing ETF outflows and market-wide declines, pushing Bitcoin prices toward key support levels and dampening short-term bullish momentum.

Bitcoin price falls below $62,000 amid ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty

Bitcoin breached the critical $62,000 support level, triggering $1.5 billion in long liquidations and signaling a broad risk-off sentiment. This intensified selling pressure further diminished the likelihood of reaching $150k by mid-2026 and pressured year-end expectations.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience record 13-day outflow streak totaling $4.4 billion

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This unprecedented outflow coincided with a nearly 20% Bitcoin price decline since mid-May, exerting significant downward pressure on the market.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs see 13 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $4.4 billion

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

By early June 2026, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13-day streak of net outflows totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This sustained selling pressure contributed to Bitcoin's price decline and dampened short-term bullish expectations.

Bitcoin Plunges Below $63,000 Following Hotter Inflation Data and Liquidations

A hotter-than-expected May CPI report showing 4.2% inflation dashed hopes of Fed rate cuts, triggering over $3 billion in leveraged liquidations and pushing Bitcoin to near $61,300.

Bitcoin Plunges to $64,100 Amid Sticky Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty

Bitcoin fell over 12% in a week, dropping to $64,100 as traders reacted to persistent inflation concerns and fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Michael Saylor Confirms MicroStrategy Sold Bitcoin to Pay Dividend

Michael Saylor confirmed that MicroStrategy offloaded 32 bitcoin to pay a dividend, sending shockwaves through the market and driving the crypto fear and greed index into extreme fear.

Bitcoin price plunges below $64,000 amid ETF outflows and liquidations

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $64,000 on June 3, 2026, triggering $1.1 billion in liquidations. This was driven by large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and waning investor confidence, pushing the probability of hitting $150k by mid-2026 to near zero.

Bitcoin faces sharp correction amid $900 million derivative liquidations

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%

Bitcoin dropped below $75,000 on June 3, 2026, triggering over $900 million in derivative liquidations and a surge in volatility, which dampened short-term market sentiment and reduced the likelihood of hitting $150k by mid-year.

Bitcoin RSI momentum gauge hints at recovery but experts remain cautious

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 3, 2026, technical indicators such as the RSI suggested Bitcoin might be oversold and poised for a recovery, but experts remained cautious due to prevailing bearish market conditions and recent sharp declines.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale and ETF Outflows Trigger Price Drop

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%

On June 3, 2026, Bitcoin's price dropped below $66,000, its lowest since early April, due to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale and $2.7 billion in ETF outflows within a week. This caused significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, reducing the likelihood of hitting $150K by June 30, 2026.

Sudden $2 trillion crypto price crash sparks Bitcoin panic and extreme fear

by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%1%

A steep selloff in early June 2026 pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, intensifying market fear and volatility. This crash was exacerbated by large institutional sell-offs and ETF redemptions, further reducing confidence in a near-term $150k price target and lowering the probability of reaching it by June 30.

Bitcoin prices slump after Strategy sells bitcoin holdings amid ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%

Cryptocurrency treasury company Strategy's sale of Bitcoin holdings triggered a selloff, coinciding with significant ETF outflows and causing Bitcoin prices to fall to their lowest levels since early April, dampening short-term prospects for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

MicroStrategy Sells Bitcoin Sparking Market Correction Fears

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy surprised the market by offloading a portion of its Bitcoin holdings, triggering fears of deeper corrections and driving down high-end price targets.

Mt. Gox Moves 10,422 BTC Raising Supply Pressure Concerns

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

The movement of a large amount of Bitcoin from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange on June 2, 2026, raised fears of imminent creditor distribution and near-term supply pressure, negatively impacting market sentiment.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy fund sells Bitcoin, triggering market sell-off

by June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%

On June 2, 2026, Michael Saylor’s Strategy fund announced a $2.5 million Bitcoin sale, its first in over three years, triggering $320 million in leveraged-long liquidations and a sharp price drop below $70,000, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.

Google Sets $80 Billion Capital Raise as AI Boom Draws Capital Away From Crypto

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Google announced a massive $80 billion capital raise, highlighting a major shift of market liquidity into the booming AI sector and away from digital assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price peaks above $71,000 driven by institutional ETF approvals

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%

Bitcoin surged to over $71,000 in early June 2026, fueled by institutional ETF approvals and growing adoption, temporarily lifting market confidence and increasing optimism for higher price targets later in the year.

Bitcoin Slumps Below $70,000 Following Strategy's Token Sale and ETF Outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%

Bitcoin fell below the key $70,000 threshold for the first time since April as the market reacted to Strategy's divestment and accelerating institutional outflows.

Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 as Massive May ETF Outflows and Saylor Selling Rumors Spook Traders

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Bitcoin fell to its lowest open since April as institutions closed May with the largest monthly ETF outflows of the year, combined with social media panic over MicroStrategy selling.

Long-term funds quietly accumulate Bitcoin at $72K

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

On June 2, 2026, reports indicated that long-term funds were accumulating Bitcoin via OTC trades around $72,000, viewing current prices as strategic for an 18-month horizon. This accumulation suggested some confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term prospects despite short-term bearish trends.

Bitcoin crashes below $62,000 triggering $1.5B in long liquidations

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%

On June 2, 2026, Bitcoin experienced a violent crash below $62,000, causing over $1.5 billion in long liquidations within hours, marking one of the largest liquidation events of 2026 and signaling a broad risk-off shift in the market.

Strategy sells Bitcoin holdings, triggering market sell-off

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%

In early June 2026, cryptocurrency treasury company Strategy sold a small amount of its Bitcoin holdings as part of a dividend plan, intensifying the market sell-off and contributing to Bitcoin prices falling below $66,000, negatively impacting the 'by June 30, 2026' outcome.

Bitcoin price crashes amid $2 trillion crypto market selloff, volatility spikes

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

On June 2, Bitcoin faced a steep selloff amid a $2 trillion crypto market crash, with volatility surging nearly 20%, causing a sharp drop in price and a collapse in probabilities for hitting $150k by mid-year.

Crypto treasury company Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time in over three years

by June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%

Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, sold 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.47 million, marking its first sale in over three years. This move intensified market sell-off pressure and contributed to declining Bitcoin prices and bearish sentiment in early June.

Strategy Discloses First Publicized Bitcoin Sale, Sparking Market Sell-Off

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Corporate treasury giant Strategy revealed it sold a small portion of its Bitcoin holdings, triggering a massive wave of liquidations and driving Bitcoin prices down.

Michael Saylor's Strategy Discloses First Net Bitcoin Sale in Four Years to Fund Dividends

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Strategy filed an 8-K showing it sold 32 bitcoins for $2.5 million to fund dividend payments, triggering a psychological shock and a sharp sell-off across the crypto market.

Clarity Act Reported to Full Senate, Entering Critical Phase for Crypto Regulation

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was officially reported to the Senate by Senator Tim Scott, marking a major milestone for establishing a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the US.

Rumors of MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin Trigger Massive ETF Outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

Market rumors that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in years exacerbated capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence.

MicroStrategy Sells Bitcoin for First Time in Years Amid Massive ETF Outflows

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Rumors and subsequent confirmation of MicroStrategy selling a portion of its Bitcoin holdings triggered a massive market sell-off and accelerated capital outflows from U.S. spot ETFs.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience largest monthly outflow of 2026

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%

Bitcoin spot ETFs closed May with $2.30 billion in net outflows, the steepest since November 2025, contributing to price pressure and a decline in market confidence heading into June.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Close May with Record $2.3 Billion in Net Outflows

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Institutional investors pulled a record $2.30 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs in May, marking the largest monthly outflow of 2026 and signaling a massive institutional retreat.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2 billion outflows, pressuring sentiment

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%

By late May 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $2 billion in combined withdrawals, reflecting institutional selling pressure. This outflow contributed to bearish market sentiment and reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin price falls below $73,000 triggering heavy liquidations

by June 30, 2026 drops to 1%8%

On May 28, 2026, Bitcoin broke below the $73,000 support level, causing nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations, with Bitcoin leading at about $386 million. This liquidation cascade intensified selling pressure and contributed to a sharp price decline into early June.

Bitcoin Funds Suffer Record $1.47 Billion Weekly Outflow

A dramatic weekly exodus of $1.47 billion from digital asset funds severely damaged investor confidence, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin price forecasts.

Bitcoin Long Liquidations Spike as Price Drops Below $73,000

Bitcoin suffered heavy long liquidations as its price broke below key support levels, signaling internal market stress and initiating a downward trend in prediction market odds.

Analyst consensus projects Bitcoin trading between $80K-$100K by year-end 2026 with potential bull case at $170K

On May 23, 2026, analysts highlighted a realistic Bitcoin price range of $80,000 to $100,000 by the end of 2026, with JPMorgan projecting a bull case of $170,000 if Bitcoin solidifies its status as digital gold. This tempered optimism reflects ongoing structural ETF inflows and macroeconomic uncertainties.

SEC Approves Nasdaq Proposal to List Cash-Settled Bitcoin Index Options

The SEC granted accelerated approval for Nasdaq to list European-style, cash-settled Bitcoin index options (QBTC), providing institutional traders with a direct hedging tool tied directly to Bitcoin's price index.

US-Iran Geopolitical Tensions and Massive ETF Outflows Trigger Bitcoin Sell-Off

by December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%

Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran fueled a risk-off sentiment, pushing Bitcoin below critical support levels and triggering over $600 million in liquidations alongside massive spot ETF exits.

Bitcoin price reaches $77,347 amid cautious optimism and regulatory progress

Bitcoin's price at $77,347 on May 18, 2026, reflects cautious market optimism fueled by regulatory progress and institutional demand, though the price remains below the $150k target. This price level indicates ongoing volatility and tempered expectations for the $150k milestone within the year.

Polymarket Traders Slash Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $150,000

by December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%

Prediction market traders sharply reduced the probability of Bitcoin hitting $150,000, pricing in just a 1% chance by June 30 and a 7% chance by the end of 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

Bitcoin crashes below $77K triggering major liquidation and ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%

Bitcoin's price fell below the critical $77,000 support level on May 18, 2026, causing a $657 million liquidation event and significant ETF outflows, reflecting waning institutional demand and increased market volatility, which dampened short-term prospects for hitting $150k by June 30.

Bitcoin hits two-week low amid Middle East turmoil and demand pullback

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%

Bitcoin price dropped to its lowest level in over two weeks due to reduced demand amid geopolitical tensions, causing a temporary decline in market confidence for near-term price gains.

VerifiedX launches Bitcoin sidechain for programmable DeFi transactions

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%3%

VerifiedX introduced a Bitcoin sidechain enabling programmable, privacy-preserving DeFi transactions without synthetic wrappers. This innovation addresses rising institutional demand for native DeFi on Bitcoin, potentially enhancing Bitcoin's utility and long-term value proposition.

Institutional Exodus Triggers Over $4 Billion in Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%3%

A massive wave of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs began in mid-May, signaling a major shift in institutional interest away from crypto and toward AI and tech equities.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experience significant outflows amid market uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous outflows totaling nearly $2.3 billion year-to-date, with over $4 billion rushing out since mid-May. This outflow pressured Bitcoin prices downward, reducing the likelihood of hitting $150k by June 30, 2026, and dampening short-term bullish sentiment.

US Senate Banking Committee advances the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill

by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%

The Senate Banking Committee's advancement of the Clarity Act marked a major regulatory milestone, promising clearer rules for the crypto sector. This legislative progress boosted market optimism about institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, positively influencing Bitcoin's price outlook for the end of 2026.

Clarity Act Regulation Bill Clears Crucial US Senate Hurdle

The US Senate advanced the Clarity Act, a major legislative milestone aimed at establishing federal oversight and unlocking large-scale institutional and pension fund demand.

Clarity Act clears major Senate Banking Committee hurdle

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

The Clarity Act, aiming to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, passed a key Senate committee vote, lifting market sentiment and temporarily boosting the probability of Bitcoin hitting $150k by year-end.

Crypto industry wins as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle

by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%

On May 14, 2026, the Clarity Act regulation bill passed a Senate hurdle, signaling progress in establishing a federal regulatory framework for crypto assets including Bitcoin. This development was seen as a positive step for investor protection but added regulatory clarity that influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory.

U.S. Senate Committee Advances Landmark Clarity Act Crypto Regulation Bill

The Republican-led Senate Banking Committee voted to advance the Clarity Act, which aims to establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets. This legislative progress temporarily supported market sentiment and stabilized the longer-term outlook.

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries hit record $15.35 billion amid rising Fed rate hike concerns

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%

On May 13, 2026, the value locked in tokenized U.S. Treasuries surged to a record $15.35 billion as investors sought yield amid increasing chances of Federal Reserve rate hikes. This shift indicated capital moving away from Bitcoin, contributing to price resistance near $80,000.

Senate Banking Committee Passes Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in Bipartisan Vote

The Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, advancing key regulatory frameworks that could pave the way for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin price dips after hotter-than-expected US CPI report amid Iran war tensions

by December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%

Following a US Consumer Price Index report showing a 3.8% annual rise in April and ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran war, Bitcoin's price declined over 1%, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Analysts predict Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by end of 2026 amid institutional ETF inflows

by December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%

Analyst consensus and institutional ETF inflows suggest Bitcoin has a realistic path to $150,000 by year-end 2026, supported by growing mainstream adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Analyst predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before end of 2026

An influential analyst publicly predicted Bitcoin would reach $150,000 before the end of 2026, requiring a near doubling from current prices. This forecast highlighted optimism but also underscored the need for sustained institutional interest and favorable macro conditions, which were uncertain at the time.

US Senate Prepares to Confirm Kevin Warsh as Next Federal Reserve Chair

The full Senate moved forward with procedural votes to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair before Jerome Powell's term officially expired on May 15, 2026.

Bitcoin price shows minor recovery but remains below key resistance levels

by June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%

By May 2026, Bitcoin showed some recovery attempts around $70,000 but faced resistance near $80,000, with market sentiment cautious and prediction market prices for hitting $150k by mid-2026 near zero.

Bitcoin's 4-year cycle and ETF inflows support $150K target by year-end 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein reaffirmed a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, citing strong ETF inflows and institutional adoption as key drivers, despite some views that 2026 may be a dormant year following the 2025 peak.

Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle predicts $150K target by year-end 2026

Analysts highlighted Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle as a key driver for a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, reinforcing market expectations despite recent volatility and price corrections. This cyclical view supported the longer-term December 31, 2026 outcome over the nearer June 30 target.

U.S. Senate committee to consider long-awaited crypto regulatory bill

by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

The U.S. Senate scheduled consideration of the Clarity Act, a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, potentially resolving legislative deadlock and influencing market confidence in Bitcoin's future price trajectory.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pull in $358 million in net inflows

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $358 million net inflow on May 9, the strongest in over five weeks. The influx of fresh capital pushed the price upward from 10 % on May 6 to 11 % on May 9 in the “by December 31 2026” series, supporting a modest bullish bias.

Tom Lee declares crypto winter over if Bitcoin closes May above $76,000

by December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%

Tom Lee of Fundstrat stated that if Bitcoin closes May 2026 above $76,000, it would confirm the end of the crypto bear market and the start of a new bull cycle. This statement boosted market confidence and supported price stability around $76,000 to $80,000.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says Bitcoin above $76k would confirm bull market

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said Bitcoin would confirm a new bull market if it closed May above $76 k. The comment, delivered at Consensus 2026, coincided with a brief price rise from 11 % on May 6 to 11 % on May 9, reinforcing optimism in the “by December 31 2026” series.

Bitcoin Wallet Count Declines at Fastest Rate in Nearly Two Years

by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%

On-chain data revealed that retail traders rapidly took profits as Bitcoin hovered around $79,000, leading to a loss of 245,000 active wallets in just five days.

Bitcoin rallies 30% from recent lows amid positive market sentiment and macro factors

In early May 2026, Bitcoin surged 30% from recent lows near $60,000, boosted by improving stock markets, positive macroeconomic data, and growing investor optimism about Bitcoin’s long-term potential despite earlier corrections.

Consensus 2026 conference held in Miami with strong institutional participation

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

The large-scale crypto industry event attracted tens of thousands of participants, boosting institutional interest and market optimism, which supported Bitcoin's price recovery attempts in early May.

Bitcoin price loses momentum near $80K–$82K resistance, triggering sharp rejection

by June 30, 2026 drops to 1%10%

In May 2026, Bitcoin's price lost momentum near the $80,000 resistance zone, triggering a sharp rejection that dragged the price back toward critical support levels around $69,000–$71,000, rattling short-term sentiment and signaling a potential deeper cooldown phase.

Sudden Bitcoin price surge fuels $16 trillion crypto market supercycle prediction

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

Bitcoin's price rally alongside stock markets and reports of China secretly stockpiling Bitcoin sparked predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market supercycle, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's growth potential and supporting the $150,000 target by year-end.

Bitcoin price surges 30% since recent lows amid broader market optimism

by December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%

Bitcoin rallied about 30% from recent lows of $60,000, supported by positive stock market performance and strong ETF inflows. This surge fueled bullish predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market by 2030 and reinforced expectations for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by year-end 2026.

Bitcoin surges 30% since recent lows amid tokenization supercycle prediction

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%

Bitcoin rallied 30% from recent lows around $60,000, fueled by growing institutional interest and a predicted tokenization supercycle, boosting market optimism for a price surge toward $150,000 by year-end.

Bitcoin reclaims Bull Market Support Band for the first time in six months

Bitcoin's technical reclaim of the Bull Market Support Band in early May 2026 indicated a potential end to the bear phase and a structural shift toward recovery, boosting market optimism for the year-end price targets.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see $532 million inflow in a single day, signaling strong institutional demand

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

On May 4, 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $532 million in new investments, reflecting significant institutional capital deployment and creating direct buying pressure on Bitcoin, supporting price stability and rally potential.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorb $532 million in inflows amid rising institutional demand

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

On May 4, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant inflow of $532 million, driven mainly by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC funds. This surge in institutional demand supported Bitcoin's price near $79,000 and indicated strong structural demand despite broader market volatility.

Bitcoin spot ETFs record $2.44 billion inflows, fueling price rally to $76,688

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

Strong inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in April and early May signaled renewed institutional interest, pushing Bitcoin prices higher and supporting bullish forecasts for reaching $150k by the end of 2026.

Elon Musk tweets spark increased market activity and speculation

Elon Musk's tweets during early May 2026 generated significant market interest and speculation, contributing to short-term volatility and influencing Bitcoin price expectations in prediction markets.

Bitcoin ETF inflows surge $630 million, boosting price toward $81,000

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%

A strong recovery period capped by $630 million in net spot ETF inflows on May 1 pushed Bitcoin's price toward $81,000, briefly lifting market confidence and probabilities for a $150k year-end target.

Senate Panel Advances Kevin Warsh's Nomination for Federal Reserve Chair

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

The Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, clearing a key procedural hurdle and signaling potential shifts toward rate cuts.

Bitcoin price reaches $76,342 amid bullish momentum and institutional interest

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

Bitcoin's price surged to $76,342 on April 28, 2026, fueled by positive market sentiment and growing institutional adoption, supporting optimism for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. This surge reflected confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite ongoing market volatility.

Trump administration finalizes design for U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

In late April 2026, the Trump administration confirmed plans to finalize a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within two months. This initiative to accumulate Bitcoin through seized assets or agency fees was seen as a potential bullish catalyst but had limited immediate impact on short-term price probabilities.

Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas highlights institutional adoption and regulatory clarity

The Bitcoin 2026 conference held from April 27-29 in Las Vegas gathered over 20,000 attendees including investors, organizations, and regulators to discuss Bitcoin's role in the global economy, reinforcing institutional interest and regulatory progress that underpin bullish market expectations.

Bitcoin rallies above $79,000 supported by Michael Saylor's buying strategy

Bitcoin's price climbed about 15% in April 2026, crossing above $79,000, partly fueled by Michael Saylor's firm Strategy's Bitcoin acquisitions funded by preferred share sales, temporarily boosting market optimism.

DOJ Reassures Software Developers at Bitcoin 2026 Conference

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%5%

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that software developers would not be prosecuted for crimes committed by third parties using their products, boosting regulatory confidence.

Bitcoin trades near $78,000 ahead of major Fed meeting and peace talks

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

Bitcoin held steady near $78,000 as investors awaited key Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical developments, indicating cautious optimism but no immediate breakout toward $150K.

Bitcoin price rallies above $79,000 fueled by Strategy’s continued accumulation

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%

By late April 2026, Bitcoin’s price climbed roughly 15% over the past month, crossing above $79,000, supported by Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases and improving investor sentiment amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Bitcoin price recovery fueled by ETF inflows and institutional accumulation

Bitcoin's price climbed back above $78,000 in late April 2026, driven by sustained ETF inflows and large purchases by institutional players like Strategy Inc., indicating a potential bullish shift despite macro uncertainties.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Record Strong Inflows as Institutional Demand Returns

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive weeks of net inflows, helping Bitcoin's price rebound toward $80,000 and stabilizing the long-term outlook.

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull Record $2.44 Billion in April Inflows Led by BlackRock

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

An eight-day consecutive inflow streak from April 14 to April 23 brought $2.1 billion into spot ETFs, marking the strongest month of inflows in 2026 and temporarily supporting bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin climbs above $77,000 on Trump ceasefire extension and Strategy's $2.5 billion buy

by December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%

Bitcoin's price rose over 13% in April, supported by a ceasefire extension announced by Trump and a large $2.5 billion Bitcoin purchase by Strategy, signaling strong institutional demand and boosting market confidence temporarily.

Strategy buys 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion, signaling strong institutional demand

On April 20, 2026, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased a large amount of Bitcoin, financed through preferred equity and share sales, demonstrating significant institutional confidence and adding structural demand to the market. This purchase contributed to market optimism about Bitcoin's potential to reach $150,000 by year-end.

Kelp DAO Exploit Drains $292 Million in Record Month for Crypto Hacks

by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%

A massive $292 million exploit of Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge contributed to April 2026 becoming one of the worst months for crypto security, dampening retail and DeFi sentiment.

Iran Rejects Second Round of Peace Talks and US Navy Seizes Cargo Ship

Geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran rejected scheduled peace talks in Islamabad and the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, reversing a brief market rally and causing Bitcoin to slip.

Iran Reasserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Contradicting Trump and Whipsawing Markets

by June 30, 2026 rises to 2%1%

Iran's military re-imposed controls on the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, reversing the previous day's market optimism and causing Bitcoin to pull back from its brief high above $78,000.

Bitcoin surges near $74,400 amid geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin rallied 5.2% to around $74,400 on April 14, 2026, as traders focused on prospects for a peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts, boosting short-term market optimism and price momentum.

U.S. lawmakers revise crypto tax policy referencing GENIUS Act

On April 14, 2026, U.S. lawmakers updated crypto tax policy discussions, specifically referencing the GENIUS Act which regulates stablecoins but does not extend exemptions to Bitcoin. This highlighted ongoing regulatory scrutiny, contributing to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin's short-term price targets.

Senate Banking Committee starts markup of the CLARITY Act

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%

The Senate Banking Committee began mark‑up of the CLARITY Act, signalling a possible passage. The prospect of clearer market‑structure rules lifted sentiment, coinciding with a price rise from 10 % on Apr 12 to 12 % on Apr 26 in the “by December 31 2026” series.

President Trump orders blockade of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions

The blockade order escalated geopolitical tensions, causing a brief dip in Bitcoin prices followed by a recovery. This event increased market volatility but underscored Bitcoin's role as a high-beta risk asset, influencing investor behavior and price dynamics in April 2026.

US CPI data triggers volatility in Bitcoin prices

The release of US Consumer Price Index data caused significant intraday volatility in Bitcoin prices, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and influencing short-term market sentiment.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses Oil Prices and Triggers Crypto Short Squeeze

A temporary two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran crashed crude oil prices, shifting interest rate expectations and triggering a massive $427 million liquidation of crypto short positions.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Massive Crypto Short Squeeze and Spot Demand

A fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East collapsed crude oil prices and triggered $427 million in crypto short liquidations, driving capital back into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin rallies 4.5% as U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapse triggers $427M crypto short squeeze

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire led to a drop in crude oil prices and forced liquidation of $427 million in crypto short positions, boosting Bitcoin's price by approximately 4.5%. This event sparked a short-term bullish momentum, positively impacting the market's outlook for Bitcoin hitting $150k by year-end.

Morgan Stanley Launches Spot Bitcoin ETF to Wealth Advisor Network

Morgan Stanley introduced its spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) to its network of 16,000 wealth advisors, establishing a direct channel for institutional capital and structural demand.

U.S. and Iran Announce Two-Week Ceasefire, Boosting Global Financial and Crypto Markets

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased geopolitical tensions, triggering a risk-on rally that pushed Bitcoin's spot price up to $72,750.

Bitcoin surges past $72,000 as oil prices crash on U.S.-Iran ceasefire

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

Bitcoin's price jumped to $72,700 following a collapse in crude oil prices triggered by the breakdown of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The event caused a powerful short squeeze in crypto futures, driving a strong rally and attracting institutional interest, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's potential to reach $150k by year-end.

Bitcoin ETFs record $471 million inflows, signaling renewed institutional demand

On April 6, 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw their strongest single-day inflows since February, with $471 million entering the market, supporting a price recovery and renewed optimism among institutional investors.

Miner firms dump billions in Bitcoin, triggering sell‑off

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%23%

Major miner‑related companies announced large Bitcoin sell‑offs (MARA 15,133 BTC, Bitdeer entire treasury, Bitfarms exiting the Bitcoin business). The news accelerated the market’s shift toward the “by‑December‑31 2026” outcome, dropping its probability from 33 % to 10 % by early April.

Bitcoin $150k Prediction Market Odds Collapse as Spot Price Weakens

Traders drastically repriced the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 in 2026, with near-term contract probabilities plunging as the spot price consolidated below $67,000.

Bitcoin $150k Timeline Pushed Out as 2026 Odds Collapse

Traders drastically lowered expectations for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 in 2026, aligning with a spot market downtrend to around $67,000 and fading conviction in bullish catalysts.

Bitcoin Core v31 upgrade released with improved transaction privacy

The major node software upgrade improved fee efficiency and transaction privacy, signaling ongoing technological progress and community commitment to Bitcoin's long-term security, which positively influenced market sentiment.

Bitcoin ETFs record $2.5B inflows in March, signaling institutional return

In March 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $2.5 billion in capital inflows, marking a significant return of institutional interest after months of outflows. This inflow helped stabilize Bitcoin prices around $71,000 and supported the market's confidence in the $150,000 by December 31, 2026 outcome.

Senators Reach Bipartisan Deal on Stablecoin Yield to Unblock CLARITY Act

by June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%

Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks reached a tentative agreement in principle on stablecoin yield, resolving a major dispute that had stalled the comprehensive crypto market structure bill since January.

Bitcoin Slipped to $69,000 as Middle East Conflict Hits Energy Infrastructure

Escalating geopolitical tensions and attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure drove oil prices back toward $100, stoking inflation fears and dragging down risk assets including Bitcoin.

Middle East Tensions Weigh on Sentiment as Bitcoin Drops to $71,000

by June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a risk-off mood, reversing Bitcoin's brief rally toward $75,000 and causing prediction markets to scale back bullish odds.

Bitcoin falls back near $71,000 amid Iran tensions and hot U.S. inflation data

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

On March 18, Bitcoin quickly pulled back to near $71,000 following reports of intensified attacks against Iran's energy resources and an unexpectedly hot February Producer Price Index report, which raised concerns about inflation and potential Federal Reserve policy tightening. This caused a short-term price decline, tempering bullish expectations for the $150,000 target by year-end.

SEC and CFTC Classify Staking Rewards as Non-Securities in Joint Release

The SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretive release classifying staking rewards as non-securities across 16 digital commodities, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for Ethereum ETFs but highlighting a yield advantage that passive Bitcoin ETFs structurally cannot offer.

SEC and CFTC issue joint interpretive release clarifying crypto securities laws

The SEC and CFTC jointly released a comprehensive interpretation clarifying how federal securities laws apply to cryptoassets, reducing regulatory uncertainty. This milestone increased market optimism about regulatory clarity, supporting higher price targets for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.

Citigroup cuts 12‑month Bitcoin target as U.S. crypto legislation stalls

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%

Citigroup downgraded its 12‑month Bitcoin price target, citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation. The negative outlook contributed to a pull‑back (price fell from 4 % on Mar 26 to 2 % on Mar 29) in the “by June 30 2026” series, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

SEC and CFTC jointly classify Bitcoin as a digital commodity

by June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%

The SEC and CFTC issued a joint 68‑page interpretation naming Bitcoin and 15 other tokens as digital commodities, removing securities‑law uncertainty. The clarification sparked a modest rally (price rose from 3 % on Mar 13 to 4 % on Mar 26) before the market settled, marking the first noticeable uptick in the “by June 30 2026” series.

SEC and CFTC issue joint interpretation clarifying crypto asset regulation

On March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC jointly clarified the regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing much-needed clarity to market participants and fostering a more stable environment for digital asset trading and investment.

Bitcoin Price Tests $74,500, Highest Since Early February 2026

by June 30, 2026 rises to 13%3%

On March 16, 2026, Bitcoin tested $74,500, marking the highest price since early February and breaking technical resistance levels. This rally was the most constructive technical development of 2026 so far but did not significantly alter the low odds for $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin breaks six-week range, hitting $74,500 on short liquidations and geopolitical tensions

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

On March 16, Bitcoin surged to $74,500, its strongest price since early February, fueled by a sharp $1,800 intraday rise triggering $113 million in short liquidations and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. This price action reinforced moderate optimism for the 'by December 31, 2026' outcome.

Bitcoin price tests $74,500, highest since early February, signaling technical strength

On March 16, 2026, Bitcoin tested $74,500, its highest price since February 4, breaking above consolidation and the 50-day EMA, marking the most constructive technical development of 2026 so far and potentially supporting longer-term $150k price targets.

Bitcoin price nears $75,000 after 25% bounce from February bottom

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

By March 16, Bitcoin had recovered nearly 25% from its February lows, trading near $75,000. This recovery was driven by improved market sentiment and institutional inflows, reinforcing the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin nears $75,000 level, highest since early February amid easing Middle East tensions

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%

Bitcoin rose nearly 4% to just shy of $75,000, its highest level in six weeks, as optimism grew that market turmoil related to the Middle East conflict was easing, boosting sentiment and risk appetite in crypto markets.

Bitcoin climbs near six-week high amid easing Middle East tensions

by June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%

Bitcoin rose about 4% to nearly $74,512 as investors returned to riskier assets on optimism that market turmoil related to the Middle East conflict was easing. This geopolitical optimism supported a modest recovery in Bitcoin price expectations but was insufficient to significantly raise the $150k by June 30, 2026 market price.

Bitcoin breaks 2021 all-time high reaching $73,750

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Bitcoin surged to a new high of $73,750 on March 14, 2026, signaling strong market momentum and briefly boosting confidence in reaching higher price targets such as $150k. This peak was followed by a price drop below $60,000 in April, reflecting volatility.

Bitcoin rallies above $72,000 amid increased futures open interest and institutional inflows

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

On March 13, Bitcoin rose nearly 5% to around $73,800, driven by increased futures open interest and steady institutional inflows, signaling renewed market confidence. This rally supported a moderate recovery in the 'by December 31, 2026' outcome price, stabilizing near 11%.

Bitcoin price rebounds to near one-month high around $74,000

By mid-March 2026, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, rising to about $74,000, helped by falling oil prices and improved sentiment, but still well below $150,000, keeping probabilities low for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by end of 2026 with institutional adoption

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

JPMorgan analysts and other experts forecast Bitcoin might hit $150,000 by the end of 2026 if institutional adoption accelerates and regulatory clarity improves, highlighting a potential bullish scenario despite current market skepticism.

SEC and CFTC Sign MOU for Crypto Coordination

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

The agreement ended regulatory uncertainty between the SEC and CFTC, signaling a more structured approach to crypto regulation and boosting investor confidence in Bitcoin's price potential.

SEC and CFTC sign Memorandum of Understanding to clarify crypto regulation

by December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%

The SEC and CFTC signed an MOU establishing a framework for coordination on shared regulatory concerns, providing clearer guidance for crypto assets. This regulatory clarity boosted market optimism about Bitcoin's prospects, supporting higher price targets for the year.

February CPI meets forecasts, keeping Fed rate‑cut hopes low

by June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%

February CPI matched forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged. The data helped stabilize the market briefly, with odds moving from 3 % (Mar 2) to 3 % (Mar 14) — a flattening after the February dip.

20 millionth Bitcoin mined, marking a key supply milestone

The mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin highlighted Bitcoin's programmed scarcity, reinforcing bullish long-term price expectations and supporting the outlook for hitting $150K by year-end. This event underscored the supply-side catalyst amid fiscal uncertainty.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs post $311 million inflows, nearly offsetting prior outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

A rebound in ETF inflows in early March 2026 suggested a tactical pause in selling and potential stabilization, though overall market sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing macro risks.

Investment Firm Warns of Further 30% Bitcoin Crash Amid Iran War

by June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%

Analysts warned that the outbreak of war in Iran and the traditional four-year halving cycle would continue to exert heavy downward pressure on Bitcoin, threatening a deeper bear market.

Bitcoin price stabilizes near $70,000 amid ETF outflows and market volatility

By early March 2026, Bitcoin's price stabilized around $70,000 after a volatile period marked by ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty. This consolidation reflected cautious market sentiment and low probabilities for hitting $150k by mid-2026, while some optimism remained for the end of 2026.

Bitcoin suffers $110 billion wipeout despite positive crypto industry news

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%

Despite positive developments like BNY Mellon acting as an ETF custodian and Kraken gaining Fed payment access, Bitcoin fell sharply due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties, reflecting cautious short-term holder selling and thin liquidity.

Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future

by June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%

Negotiations on landmark U.S. crypto legislation stalled after banks withdrew support for a White House-backed compromise, casting doubt on the bill's passage in 2026. This regulatory uncertainty contributed to bearish sentiment and declining confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin Price Nears $69,000 Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin traded around $68,770 on March 3, 2026, reflecting ongoing volatility and a significant decline from its October 2025 all-time high. The price level underscored the market's cautious stance and uncertainty about reaching $150k in the near term.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin surges above $116,000

by June 30, 2026 surges to 23%19%

The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years lowered borrowing costs and boosted liquidity, triggering a sharp Bitcoin price surge above $116,000 and renewed optimism about crypto market upside amid easing monetary policy.

Analyst suggests Bitcoin market bottom may be near, but downturn could extend

A report from a major crypto exchange analyst indicated that Bitcoin's bear market could last into late 2026 if measured in USD, but a bottom might be near when priced against gold, signaling potential stabilization ahead.

Analyst signals Bitcoin market bottom may be near, with recovery possible in March

Analysts noted that Bitcoin's bear market might be nearing a bottom around February 2026, with a potential recovery starting in March. This tentative optimism slightly stabilized prediction market probabilities but did not reverse the overall bearish trend for $150K by mid-2026.

Bitcoin market bottom may be nearing as price weakness aligns with gold-denominated trends

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Analysts noted that Bitcoin's price bottom could be near in early March 2026, based on historical patterns when priced against gold. Despite this, ETF outflows and macroeconomic pressures kept market confidence low for hitting $150k by mid-2026 within the analyzed window.

Bernstein maintains $150K Bitcoin forecast despite early 2026 correction

Despite a significant drawdown in early 2026, Bernstein analysts maintained their forecast that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing on-chain metrics and institutional flows signaling a potential rebound.

Analyst predicts Bitcoin market bottom around Feb 2026

Analyst warned a potential market bottom in February 2026, reinforcing bearish sentiment that kept the June‑30 probability low (3 %) despite a brief rally in early March.

Large investors accumulate Bitcoin amid market bottom signals

by December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%

By March 1, reports indicated that while reactive capital fled Bitcoin, large-scale investors and whales were accumulating, treating the downturn as an accumulation zone. This institutional buying supported a price rebound and stabilized the 'by December 31, 2026' outcome around 11-12%.

Bitcoin rebounds to $68,000 after Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei reported killed

by June 30, 2026 rises to 12%2%

Following Iranian state media reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in U.S. airstrikes, Bitcoin sharply rebounded to about $68,000, erasing most war-driven losses. This leadership turmoil increased hopes for de-escalation, triggering a rally in Bitcoin amid thin liquidity.

Bitcoin price falls amid inflation fears and macro risks ahead of US economic data

by June 30, 2026 drops to 2%5%

On February 27, Bitcoin dropped 2.46% to around $66,000 as inflation concerns and upcoming US Producer Price Index data dampened bullish sentiment. This risk-off mood capped Bitcoin's upside and pressured short-term price expectations, reflected in the decline of the 'by June 30, 2026' outcome from 7% to 2%.

Bitcoin price hits low near $68,000 amid market correction

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%

Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction into early 2026, with prices dropping near $68,000, reflecting market uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally.

Bitcoin price hits low near $67,000 amid market selloff

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%

Bitcoin's price dropped below $67,000 in late February 2026, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the near collapse of odds for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026 in prediction markets.

Bitcoin hits lowest level since early 2025 amid market uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%

Bitcoin prices dropped to their lowest level since early 2025 by late February 2026, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty, liquidity challenges, and cautious investor sentiment, reducing the likelihood of a $150k hit by mid-2026.

JPMorgan sees crypto boost if U.S. market-structure bill passes

JPMorgan analysts indicated that passing sweeping market-structure legislation would provide regulatory clarity, end enforcement uncertainty, and promote institutional participation, potentially lifting crypto markets. This anticipation influenced market sentiment but uncertainty about the bill's passage limited bullish momentum.

Bitcoin rebounds over 6% to about $68,500 triggering crypto relief rally

by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%

On February 25, Bitcoin rebounded more than 6% to about $68,500, sparking a broad relief rally across major altcoins and signaling tentative return of U.S. buyers and risk appetite. This positive institutional activity slightly supported the market's outlook for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by December 31, 2026.

Bernstein maintains $150k Bitcoin forecast for 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Bernstein reaffirmed its 2026 $150k target, counter‑balancing the recent price drop and nudging the “by December 31 2026” probability up from 12 % to 11 % on Mar 7, a modest but notable shift.

Bitcoin Pullback Attributed to Geopolitical Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty

Blockstream CEO Adam Back noted that Bitcoin's recent price decline occurred despite a favorable U.S. regulatory backdrop, pointing instead to broader macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin falls below $63,000 amid escalating tariff tensions and geopolitical risks

by June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%

Bitcoin's price dropped below $63,000 on February 24 as investors reacted to President Trump's announcement of new 15% global tariffs and rising Middle East tensions, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across crypto and equity markets. This contributed to a decline in the market's confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by June 30, 2026.

Trump unveils 15% global tariffs, Bitcoin slides 5% below $65k

by June 30, 2026 drops to 34%7%

Trump announced a 15 % global tariff increase, triggering a risk‑off wave. Bitcoin fell over 5 % to below $65k, and the prediction‑market price for hitting $150k by June 2026 dropped sharply from 41 % to 34 %, reflecting heightened short‑term doubt.

Bitcoin market bottom may be nearing, analyst says

An analyst from Mercado Bitcoin suggested Bitcoin's market bottom could be approaching based on gold-denominated price metrics, indicating a potential end to the downturn extending into late 2026. This insight provided some cautious optimism but did not significantly reverse the declining market prices for the $150k targets.

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

by June 30, 2026 drops to 27%7%

The Supreme Court ruled that the previous “Liberation Day” tariff was unlawful, intensifying uncertainty about future trade policy. Bitcoin dropped below $80k and the market price for the June 2026 target fell from 34 % to 27 %.

Swan Bitcoin CEO predicts market rebound in early 2026

by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%

In a CNBC interview, Swan Bitcoin’s CEO suggested that the current pullback may be over and a rebound is likely, providing a modest bullish nudge that helped the probability for the by‑December‑31 outcome rise from 11 % to 12 % by early March.

Whale Bitcoin Holdings Increase Amid Brief Price Rebound

by June 30, 2026 rises to 7%2%

In late February 2026, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC increased their holdings, signaling accumulation by large investors during a short 4% price rebound, indicating cautious optimism despite overall bearish market conditions.

Whale Bitcoin holders increase holdings amid brief price rebound

Around February 19–20, 2026, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC increased their holdings from 676,540 to 690,000 BTC during a brief 4.06% price rebound. This indicated growing institutional accumulation, providing some support to the market and slightly improving outlook for the $150k year-end target.

Bitcoin Lightning Network hits all-time high monthly volume, signaling network growth

The Bitcoin Lightning Network processed an estimated $1.17 billion in volume in November 2025, a 400% year-over-year increase, indicating growing network adoption which could support longer-term bullish fundamentals despite short-term price weakness.

Bitcoin ETFs record four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling over $3.4 billion

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%

Prolonged ETF outflows indicated sustained institutional risk aversion amid macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory concerns, pressuring Bitcoin prices downward during early 2026.

Bernstein and other analysts maintain $150K Bitcoin target for 2026

Despite recent price weakness, Bernstein and other analysts reaffirmed a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by end-2026, citing institutional flows and whale accumulation, supporting a moderate bullish outlook.

Bitcoin recovers to $70,000 after $8.7 billion market wipeout

Following a significant market correction, Bitcoin clawed back to $70,000, signaling potential stabilization despite ongoing market fear and uncertainty.

Bitcoin price recovers above $70,000 after softer U.S. inflation data

by June 30, 2026 rises to 7%3%

Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000 following a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reading, which eased market concerns and renewed risk appetite. This recovery briefly boosted confidence in Bitcoin's price potential, causing a temporary rise in the $150k by June 30, 2026 prediction market price.

Bitcoin recovers above $70,000 on cooler U.S. inflation data amid market anxiety

Bitcoin clawed back above $70,000 following a sharp drop, driven by cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data and renewed risk appetite. Despite the recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in extreme fear, indicating ongoing market anxiety and cautious investor sentiment.

Bitcoin recovers to $70,000 amid cooling inflation and market stabilization

by December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%

By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin clawed back to around $70,000 as inflation concerns eased and market conditions stabilized, though overall sentiment remained cautious. This recovery slightly improved confidence in longer-term $150,000 targets.

Standard Chartered Warns of Potential Bitcoin Slide to $50,000

Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin price projection to $150,000 and warned of a potential bottom of $50,000, fueling extreme fear and driving down prediction market odds.

Bitcoin suffers 50% correction from October 2025 peak, recovery timeline uncertain

by June 30, 2026 drops to 11%7%

Bitcoin declined roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to about $66,000 by February 2026, marking one of the steepest corrections since the FTX collapse. This sharp pullback shifted market sentiment from euphoria to fear, lowering short-term expectations for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein maintain $150K Bitcoin year-end target amid market volatility

On February 13, 2026, Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin forecast down but still expected a $150,000 price by year-end, supported by Bernstein analysts' similar targets. This institutional outlook provided a bullish long-term anchor despite ongoing market corrections, influencing the 'by December 31, 2026' outcome price near 12%.

Feb 2026 sees $410 million of Bitcoin‑ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%

Standard Chartered’s revision of its Bitcoin forecast (cut from $150 k to $100 k) was paired with reports of $410 million in Bitcoin‑ETF outflows in February 2026, reinforcing a bearish narrative and pressuring the price toward the 4 % low by June 30 2026.

Standard Chartered slashes 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 4%67%

Standard Chartered publicly cut its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150 k to $100 k and analyst Geoff Kendrick warned of a possible drop to $50 k. The downgrade intensified bearish sentiment, contributing to the sharp decline from 71 % to 4 % (by June 30 2026).

Bernstein reports institutional flows and whale accumulation supporting $150,000 Bitcoin target by end-2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Despite recent price weakness, Bernstein reaffirmed a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, citing ongoing institutional accumulation and ETF inflows as bullish fundamentals for the longer term.

Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 on Speculation of US Strategic Reserve

Bitcoin's spot price recovered strongly from its recent dip, bolstered by intensifying rumors that the US might formalize a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, easing financial conditions

by June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%

The Fed announced a 25‑basis‑point rate cut, lowering yields on safe‑haven assets and prompting a modest rally in Bitcoin, raising the “by December 31 2026” probability from 12 % to 12 % (stable) while the “by June 30 2026” probability slipped to 5 % as investors hedged short‑term risk.

Bitcoin falls below $70,000 amid market depth decline and sell-at-any-price rout

by June 30, 2026 dips to 5%3%

In early February 2026, Bitcoin's market depth dropped significantly, reducing liquidity and exacerbating price declines during a broad sell-off, which further diminished confidence in hitting $150k by mid or end 2026.

Bitcoin price drops below $80,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 drops to 7%7%

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and risk-off sentiment. This decline further reduced confidence in a mid-2026 $150,000 price target, pushing market odds lower for that outcome.

Bitcoin hits a low near $60,500 after 52% decline from October 2025 peak

by December 31, 2026 drops to 11%7%

Bitcoin experienced one of its steepest corrections, falling roughly 52% from its October 2025 all-time high to about $60,500 in early February 2026. This significant drop dampened market confidence and contributed to the low prediction market prices for Bitcoin hitting $150k by mid and end 2026.

CLARITY Act stalls in Senate after banking industry opposition

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%

The CLARITY Act, meant to provide a regulatory framework for digital assets, stalled in the Senate after the American Bankers Association rejected a compromise. The uncertainty pushed investors to reduce exposure, fueling the continued drop toward the 2 % low in February 2026.

Bitcoin price drops near $60,000 amid broad market sell-off

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%

Bitcoin fell sharply to near $60,000 in early February 2026, erasing post-election gains and reflecting broader market sell-offs and reduced market depth, which dampened optimism for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.

Bitcoin ETFs see $272 m outflow, price falls below $63 k

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%9%

A sudden $272 m net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs on 5 Feb 2026 triggered a rapid price drop to below $63 k, moving the market from 12 % to 3 % on the chart within days. This sharp sell‑off accounts for the final plunge toward the 3 % endpoint on 8 Mar 2026.

Bitcoin price plunges below $65,000 amid market sell-off

by June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%

Bitcoin experienced a steep one-day decline of over 10%, falling below $65,000 due to escalating tariff tensions and broader geopolitical risks, marking one of its worst drawdowns since the 2022 FTX crash and contributing to a collapse in prediction market odds for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin price drops sharply amid broader market selloff

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%

Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop in early February 2026, falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, reflecting a typical post-bull cycle correction and reducing confidence in near-term $150k targets.

Bitcoin experiences major selloff in February 2026 reflecting orderly deleveraging

by June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%

Bitcoin's sharp price decline in early February 2026 was due to orderly deleveraging rather than panic selling, with volatility remaining below prior bear-market levels, signaling a correction phase after the October 2025 peak.

Long-term Bitcoin holders reduce selling, hinting at potential price stabilization

by June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%

In early February 2026, data showed a collapse in net selling by long-term Bitcoin holders, suggesting a possible bottoming and stabilization phase. However, this was not sufficient to reverse the bearish trend immediately, reflected in continued low market probabilities for $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin suffers sharp single-day drop amid tariff-driven risk aversion

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%

Bitcoin price dropped sharply from about $75,700 to $62,800 in early February 2026 due to increased geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment, further reducing confidence in a $150K price by mid-2026.

ETF outflows and leverage unwind fuel Bitcoin’s Feb 2026 crash

by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Analysis linked the 5‑Feb crash to the end of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (net outflows of $9 B over four months), removing a key price support and accelerating the decline to the 2 % odds level for a June‑2026 hit.

Bitcoin experiences major selloff amid geopolitical tensions and tariff fears

Bitcoin suffered a sharp selloff on February 5, 2026, triggered by President Trump's announcement of increased global tariffs and broader risk-off sentiment, causing a drop below $63,000 and large liquidations.

Bitcoin price crashes below $72,000 amid tech stock sell-off and ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%11%

In early February 2026, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply below $72,000 due to a tech stock sell-off, unwinding of leveraged positions, and massive ETF outflows, removing a major source of buying pressure and triggering a broad market decline.

Bitcoin suffers steep one-day decline amid orderly deleveraging and market volatility

by December 31, 2026 drops to 12%5%

Bitcoin tumbled more than 10% in a single day, marking one of its fastest crashes historically, driven by significant deleveraging in futures markets and heightened volatility. Despite the sharp drop, analysts described the move as orderly without systemic failure, signaling a cautious market environment.

Bitcoin experiences one of fastest single-day crashes in crypto history

by June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%

On February 5, Bitcoin registered a -6.05σ move on the rate-of-change Z-score, marking a rapid and extreme price drop amid deleveraging and liquidations totaling billions. This event caused a sharp decline in market confidence and price probabilities for near-term $150k targets.

Bitcoin plunges below $63 k amid tariff worries and risk‑off sell‑off

by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

A sharp market sell‑off on 5 Feb 2026, triggered by heightened tariff tensions and a broader risk‑off wave, drove Bitcoin below $63 k and knocked the prediction‑market price from 12 % (Feb 16) to 11 % (Mar 13), the lowest level in the window.

Sharp single-day Bitcoin price drop amid tariff-driven risk aversion

by June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%

On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin's price sharply fell from $75,689 to $62,829 due to tariff-driven risk aversion, extending the market drawdown and reducing confidence in hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin Experiences Sharp Single-Day Drop Amid Tariff-Driven Risk Aversion

by June 30, 2026 drops to 6%10%

On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply from $75,689 to $62,829 due to tariff-related risk aversion, extending the drawdown and dampening short-term bullish sentiment for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Hawkish Fed chair nominee sparks Bitcoin sell‑off in early February 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 12%4%

A hawkish Fed chair nomination fueled expectations of tighter policy, prompting a steep sell‑off that pushed the market from 16 % (Feb 5) to 12 % (Feb 17) in the “by December 31, 2026” chart and to 5 % (Feb 7) in the “by June 30, 2026” chart.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $545 Million in Net Outflows as Price Tumbles

by December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%

Significant institutional outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and massive liquidations across major exchanges triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, dragging down prediction market odds.

Bitcoin falls below $74,000 amid tech sector sell-off and AI jitters

by December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%

A renewed sell-off in technology stocks, especially software companies, weighed on Bitcoin and crypto miners linked to AI infrastructure, causing Bitcoin to slide below $74,000. This reflected broader market risk aversion and contributed to Bitcoin's price decline in early February.

Crypto market volatility triggers $2.56 bn in Bitcoin liquidations

A sharp volatility spike triggered $2.56 bn of Bitcoin liquidations, pushing the market probability for the June‑2026 outcome from 8 % on Feb 3 to 3 % on Feb 25, the lowest point in the analysis window.

Bitcoin falls below $80,000 for first time since April 2025

by June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%

Bitcoin's price dropped below $80,000 amid ongoing market volatility and investor caution, reflecting diminished confidence in a rapid rise to $150,000 by mid-2026 and contributing to the decline in prediction market prices.

Bitcoin price falls below $80,000 amid market uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 drops to 7%9%

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, reflecting increased market anxiety and bearish sentiment due to macroeconomic factors and ETF outflows.

Bitcoin prices fall below $75,000 amid ETF outflows and macro uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 drops to 8%10%

Bitcoin dropped to its lowest point in 2026, below $75,000, driven by the steepest ETF outflows since February 2025 and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This decline further reduced market optimism for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.

Federal Reserve signals uncertain rate cuts, dampening Bitcoin outlook

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate decision and subsequent dot plot indicated weak signals for continued interest rate cuts in 2026, with potential for hikes. This macroeconomic uncertainty negatively impacted Bitcoin's price outlook and contributed to declining prediction market prices for hitting $150k by mid-2026 and end-2026.

Fed signals delayed interest rate cuts, dampening crypto risk appetite

by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%

The Federal Reserve's indication of postponed rate cuts increased monetary policy uncertainty, reducing risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price probabilities for mid-2026.

Bitcoin price correction to around $70,000 dampens short-term optimism

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%

Bitcoin corrected roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, falling below $70,000 by early 2026, which contributed to reduced market confidence in hitting $150,000 within the first half of 2026.

Bernstein backs $150k Bitcoin target, cites tokenization boom

by December 31, 2026 rises to 54%3%

Bernstein re‑affirmed its $150k 2026 target and highlighted tokenization growth, which modestly restored confidence. The market price for the December 2026 target rose from 51 % to 54 % after the release.

Bitcoin price weakens amid macroeconomic uncertainty and Fed policy doubts

by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%8%

Bitcoin price declined significantly in early 2026 due to persistent inflation, solid labor data, and uncertainty about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, dampening risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto. Prediction markets slashed odds for $150K by mid-2026 to near zero.

SEC and CFTC Hold Joint Meeting on Crypto Regulation and Market Structure

On January 29, 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig held a joint public meeting to harmonize crypto regulation, signaling a shift toward clearer regulatory frameworks. This regulatory clarity was seen as a positive long-term factor but did not immediately boost Bitcoin's short-term $150k price odds.

Bitcoin price falls below $81,000 amid ETF outflows and macro uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%9%

Bitcoin's price dropped below $81,000 in late January 2026, pressured by significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin spot ETFs experience nearly $1 billion in outflows over two days

by June 30, 2026 drops to 25%5%

In late January 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant outflows totaling nearly $1 billion, indicating institutional selling pressure that contributed to Bitcoin's price decline and reduced buying support.

Major Bitcoin ETF products suffer nearly $1 billion in outflows amid institutional sell-off

by June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%

At the end of January 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant outflows totaling nearly $1 billion, indicating institutional investors were reducing crypto exposure, which contributed to price declines and reduced market confidence.

SEC issues statement clarifying taxonomy of tokenized securities

The SEC's statement on tokenized securities taxonomy provided regulatory clarity, which was expected to support institutional adoption and market confidence, though immediate price impact was limited amid broader bearish trends.

Fed holds rates steady in January 2026, Bitcoin drops on sell‑the‑news

by December 31, 2026 drops to 22%5%

The Fed held rates at 3.5 %‑3.75 % in its January meeting. Even though the decision was expected, Bitcoin fell sharply afterwards, moving from 27 % (Jan 1) to 22 % (Jan 12), reflecting a “sell‑the‑news” reaction to monetary‑policy updates.

Bitcoin plunges to fresh 2026 low amid bearish factors and U.S. government shutdown fears

by December 31, 2026 dips to 22%4%

Bitcoin dropped to around $86,400 as multiple bearish factors converged, including the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which increased market risk aversion and pressured Bitcoin prices downward.

Bitcoin plunges to fresh 2026 low amid ETF outflows and macroeconomic concerns

by June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%

Bitcoin prices dropped to their lowest point of 2026 as ETF outflows hit $1.3 billion in one week, the steepest since February 2025, combined with macroeconomic uncertainties, driving bearish sentiment and reducing the likelihood of hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.

Bitcoin experiences 25% decline over six months amid macro uncertainties and ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 drops to 13%5%

Bitcoin's price dropped 25% over the past six months due to macroeconomic uncertainties, risk-off sentiment, and diminishing institutional flows, with ETF investors' average cost basis at a crucial support level, dampening near-term $150k price expectations.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs suffer $1.33 billion outflows, worst week since February 2025

by June 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%

Significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund, reflected waning institutional demand and increased selling pressure, contributing to Bitcoin's price decline and bearish market sentiment.

Epoch Ventures forecasts Bitcoin to reach $150k by end-2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%

Epoch Ventures issued a report forecasting Bitcoin to reach at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, driven by decoupling from equities, steady ETF inflows, and corporate adoption, while declaring the traditional 4-year halving cycle obsolete.

Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin $150k by end‑2026, declares 4‑year cycle over

by December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%

Epoch Ventures’ annual ecosystem report forecast Bitcoin reaching at least $150k by end‑2026, citing steady ETF inflows and decoupling from equities. The bullish outlook nudged the “by Dec 2026” price from 48 % to 51 %.

Epoch Ventures forecasts Bitcoin hitting $150K by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 rises to 29%2%

Epoch Ventures issued a report forecasting Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by end-2026, driven by decoupling from equities, steady ETF inflows, and corporate adoption, supporting a gradual growth narrative.

Institutional investors pull funds from Bitcoin ETFs, weakening price momentum

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 14%17%

In January 2026, institutional investors withdrew over $1.5 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, contributing to price declines toward $77,000 and reducing confidence in a rapid rise to $150k by mid-2026.

Standard Chartered analyst says Bitcoin could surge 55% in 2026

by December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%

Kendrick publicly reaffirmed the $150 k target but emphasized a 55 % upside in 2026, while noting the earlier downgrade. The comment gave a modest boost to the “by Dec 2026” odds, lifting the market price from 45 % to 48 % that afternoon.

Bitcoin rallies past $93,000 amid Fed rate cut speculation

by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%

Bitcoin broke past last year's low near $80,000 and rallied to around $93,300 in January 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving economic momentum, providing short-term bullish momentum.

Bitcoin surges 17% from November lows amid renewed ETF inflows

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 26%9%

On January 18, 2026, Bitcoin reached $94,400, recovering over 17% from November 2025 lows, fueled by renewed institutional interest and ETF inflows, alongside supportive macroeconomic data indicating reduced inflationary pressures.

Institutional investors withdraw over $1.5 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, weakening price momentum

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 14%16%

In January 2026, institutional investors pulled more than $1.5 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, contributing to price declines toward $77,000 and reducing confidence in a rapid rise to $150k by mid-2026, reflected in falling prediction market odds.

Senate Committee advances digital asset oversight framework bill

The Senate's progress on a bipartisan crypto market structure bill aimed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and consumer protections, signaling potential future regulatory clarity that could impact Bitcoin's institutional adoption and price dynamics.

Bitcoin ETFs experience significant outflows amid market uncertainty

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows totaling $4.57 billion during November and December 2025, with the largest weekly redemption in January 2026, signaling reduced institutional demand and contributing to price declines and lower market confidence in near-term $150k targets.

Senate Banking Committee postpones CLARITY Act markup, causing market uncertainty

The Senate Banking Committee delayed the markup session for the CLARITY Act, leading to regulatory uncertainty and a Bitcoin price drop below $96,000, dampening bullish momentum.

Bitcoin rallies above $97,000 amid stable inflation and crypto legislation progress

by June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%

Bitcoin briefly rallied above $97,000 in early 2026, supported by stable inflation and positive developments in crypto legislation. This short-term price strength caused minor upticks in prediction market prices but did not reverse the overall downward trend.

Bitcoin’s time‑based capitulation nears 50‑day mark, signaling possible breakout

by June 30, 2026 rises to 24%2%

A CoinDesk analysis highlighted a tight consolidation pattern resembling the 2025 buildup, suggesting a potential breakout. While speculative, the piece nudged the June 2026 odds up slightly from 22 % to 24 %.

Industry experts forecast Bitcoin price range from $75,000 to $225,000 in 2026

Diverse price predictions emerged for Bitcoin in 2026, with some experts expecting a low of $75,000 and others a high of $225,000, reflecting uncertainty and mixed market sentiment.

Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin will hit $150K by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%

Epoch Ventures forecasted Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing steady ETF inflows and corporate adoption, signaling a shift to gradual growth rather than volatile cycles.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin 2026 price forecast to $150,000

by December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%

Standard Chartered bank revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward to $150,000 for the end of 2026, halving its previous target of $300,000. This adjustment reflected growing caution amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, impacting market expectations for the $150k target.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 range from $75,000 to $225,000 with $150k consensus

by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%

Analysts and institutions published a range of Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026, with many converging around a $150,000 target. Standard Chartered cut its forecast from $300,000 to $150,000, citing that future price increases will be driven mainly by ETF buying. This tempered optimism contributed to the continued decline in prediction market prices.

Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research confirms 2025 price decline within expected bounds

by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered acknowledged the 2025 Bitcoin price decline as expected, leading to a revised, more cautious outlook for 2026 with a $150,000 target, reinforcing market skepticism about rapid price gains.

Analysts revise Bitcoin 2026 price forecasts downward amid market correction

by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%

In early 2026, analysts including Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered Bitcoin price forecasts to around $150,000, citing market corrections and regulatory factors, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.

Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin rebound to $150,000 by year-end 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%

Bernstein and Standard Chartered both forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing institutional flows and ETF buying as key drivers despite recent price corrections. This reinforced the market's adjusted expectations for the $150k target by year-end rather than mid-year.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein Cut Bitcoin Price Forecasts to $150K for 2026

by June 30, 2026 drops to 18%6%

Major financial institutions revised down their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting tempered expectations after the 2025 price correction and signaling a more cautious outlook among institutional investors.

Standard Chartered Slashes 2026 Bitcoin Price Target to $150,000

Standard Chartered analysts reduced their Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, citing expectations of less aggressive buying from Digital Asset Treasury companies.

Bitcoin drops to $90,000 amid testing of critical support levels

by June 30, 2026 drops to 17%13%

Bitcoin declined 2.57% to $90,000 on January 8, 2026, testing key support levels after consecutive sessions of losses, reflecting market uncertainty and a consolidation phase following the October 2025 peak.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein revise Bitcoin price forecasts to $150k for 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%9%

Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 for 2026, down from previous higher forecasts. This adjustment reflected market realities after the 2025 price decline and tempered expectations for rapid price appreciation within the year.

Bernstein predicts Bitcoin rebound to $150,000 by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%

Bernstein published a forecast highlighting institutional flows and on-chain metrics supporting a potential Bitcoin price rebound to $150,000 by the end of 2026. This report provided some bullish support for the $150k by December 31, 2026 outcome, though market prices remained subdued.

Bitcoin price recovery fragile despite recent gains in early 2026

by June 30, 2026 drops to 13%5%

Despite Bitcoin's price climbing after December lows, analysts described the recovery as fragile, with volatility and cautious investor sentiment persisting. This tempered expectations for a rapid rise to $150,000 within the first half of 2026.

Strong start to 2026 with Bitcoin and crypto markets rallying on ETF inflows

by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%

Bitcoin and broader crypto markets began 2026 strongly, buoyed by fresh new-year allocations and significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs. This renewed institutional interest supported a cautious but constructive market reset.

Tom Lee predicts new Bitcoin all-time high by end of January 2026

by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors forecasted that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026, signaling potential bullish momentum despite recent volatility and market corrections.

January 2026 ETF inflow reversal lifts Bitcoin 7.7 % to $93.8K

by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%

Four‑day net inflow of $385.9 M into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) reversed a $1.5 B outflow streak, pushing Bitcoin up 7.7 % to $93,816 and nudging the probability of the “by‑June‑30” outcome higher.

Bitcoin rises above $90,000 amid positive market sentiment and AI infrastructure optimism

On the first trading day of 2026, Bitcoin climbed above $90,000, buoyed by gains in crypto miners pivoting to AI infrastructure and anticipation of CME Group launching bitcoin volatility futures. This optimism supported a bullish technical outlook and raised hopes for a price breakout.

Institutional ETF inflows continue despite market volatility

by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.2 billion net inflows in Q1 2026, with exchange reserves dropping 15% since December 2025, indicating sustained institutional demand that supports potential price recovery toward $150k by end of 2026.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein revise Bitcoin price forecasts to $150,000 for 2026

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%

Major financial institutions cut their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting tempered optimism amid market corrections and macroeconomic challenges.

Bitcoin price closes 2025 at $88,445 amid market cap of $2.15 trillion

by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%

Bitcoin ended 2025 trading around $88,445, reflecting a significant decline from its October peak but showing a strong floor. This price level influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's trajectory into 2026.

Crypto enters 2026 on uneven footing after October crash

by June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%

Following a sharp October 2025 crash from $126,000 to near $80,000, Bitcoin entered 2026 with significant volatility and uncertainty. This downturn dampened short-term bullish sentiment and contributed to declining prediction market prices for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

MicroStrategy buys 1,229 BTC for $108.8 million

by December 31, 2026 surges to 27%17%

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of an additional 1,229 BTC at an average price of $88,568. The large buy signaled strong institutional demand, helping the price rebound to 27 % on Jan 7 2026 after a fall to 10 % on Feb 26 2025.

U.S. Congress enacts GENIUS Act, establishing federal stablecoin framework

The GENIUS Act provided regulatory clarity by assigning stablecoin oversight to banking regulators, reducing uncertainty and signaling U.S. commitment to regulated digital assets, which helped stabilize market sentiment despite unresolved crypto market structure issues.

Bitcoin trades at $87K after falling from $126K peak

by June 30, 2026 dips to 17%2%

Bitcoin's price dropped significantly from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to around $87,000 by late December, reflecting a market correction and increasing bearish sentiment. This price decline contributed to reduced confidence in Bitcoin hitting $150k by mid-2026 and end-2026, as seen in prediction market prices.

MicroStrategy sells part of Bitcoin holdings for tax purposes

by December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%

MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC for about $11.8 million in late December 2025, signaling cautious corporate behavior amid market volatility. This sale contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices during the period.

Fed signals slower rate‑cut cycle for 2026

by June 30, 2026 dips to 27%4%

The Fed announced a slower pace of rate cuts for 2026, dampening risk‑on sentiment. The news coincided with the market’s slide from 31 % on Dec 27 to 27 % on Jan 8, reinforcing bearish pressure for both outcomes.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein Cut Bitcoin Price Predictions to $150K by 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 32%2%

Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein revised their Bitcoin price forecasts downward to $150,000 by 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid a 30% crash from the all-time high. This adjustment tempered market optimism for a rapid $150k hit, influencing prediction market prices.

Crypto Industry Celebrates Regulatory Wins but Faces Uncertainty Ahead

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%

Following major regulatory and legislative victories in 2025, including the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and stablecoin frameworks, the crypto industry expressed optimism. However, pending market structure legislation and political uncertainties tempered enthusiasm, contributing to cautious market sentiment.

US crypto industry celebrates major regulatory wins under Trump administration

by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%

The Trump administration's pro-crypto policies, including easing bank rules and approving crypto products, helped propel Bitcoin to new peaks in 2025 and laid groundwork for wider adoption, though concerns about systemic risks remain.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein slash Bitcoin price forecasts to $150,000 by 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%

Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein revised their Bitcoin price forecasts downward to $150,000 by 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid a 30% crash from the all-time high. This adjustment tempered market optimism and led to a decline in prediction market prices for hitting $150k by mid and end 2026.

Bitcoin price correction deepens after October peak

by June 30, 2026 drops to 14%7%

Following a peak near $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a multi-week correction, with prices slipping below $90,000 by December, dampening short-term bullish sentiment and reducing odds of hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut 2026 Bitcoin target to $150k

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 57%16%

Both firms cut their 2026 price targets to $150k, down from higher forecasts. The downgrades dampened optimism, contributing to a slide from 73 % to 57 % by Aug 30 2025.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut Bitcoin price forecasts to $150K by 2026

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 33%27%

Major financial institutions revised their Bitcoin price forecasts downward to $150,000 by 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid a 30% crash from the all-time high, tempering market optimism and lowering prediction market prices.

Trump administration unveils plan for U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve

by June 30, 2026 rises to 28%4%

A legislative proposal to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve was announced by the Trump administration, briefly reviving confidence and lifting the “by June 30 2026” probability from 24 % to 28 % on Dec 8, before the effect faded.

Turkish authorities seize $6.9 million in crypto assets linked to crime

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%19%

Turkish officials seized $6.9 million worth of crypto assets linked to illicit activity. The crackdown sparked a brief risk‑off wave, coinciding with the price dip from 57 % on Aug 30 2025 to 38 % on Sep 27 2025.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady, dampens further easing expectations

The Fed announced that its December rate decision would keep the policy rate unchanged and signaled a weaker outlook for further cuts. The news spooked risk‑on investors and coincided with a 12‑point drop in the market probability for the June‑2026 outcome (from 62 % on Dec 2 to 50 % on Dec 12).

Bitcoin Standard Treasury executive predicts $150k Bitcoin by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%

A Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company executive forecasted Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing regulatory clarity, monetary easing, and Wall Street adoption as key factors. This bolstered market optimism for the year-end 2026 outcome.

Standard Chartered cuts 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $150k from $300k

by June 30, 2026 drops to 45%6%

Standard Chartered slashed its Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, citing the sharp correction from the October 2025 peak and weaker ETF inflows. The downgrade lowered market optimism for a $150 k level by mid‑2026, pushing the prediction‑market price from 51 % to 45 % the day after.

SEC issues no-action letter for Depository Trust Company blockchain pilot

by December 31, 2026 rises to 33%1%

The SEC's no-action letter allowing the Depository Trust Company to pilot tokenizing assets on blockchain signaled regulatory openness, boosting market confidence and temporarily supporting Bitcoin price prospects.

SEC Division issues no-action letter for tokenized assets pilot program

On December 11, 2025, the SEC Division of Trading and Markets issued a no-action letter allowing a pilot program for tokenizing assets on blockchains, providing regulatory clarity and supporting innovation in crypto markets, which helped stabilize market sentiment.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein Cut Bitcoin Price Forecasts to $150K by 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%

Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein slashed their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 by 2026, citing a 30% crash from the all-time high and reduced market liquidity.

Fed cuts rates by 25 bp in December 2025, Bitcoin spikes then settles

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%42%

The Fed’s 25‑bp rate cut in December 2025 sparked a brief rally to $94 k, lifting the market odds for a 150 k hit, but the dovish tone was muted, and the price slipped back, contributing to the drop from 73 % (18 Aug) to 31 % by early January 2026.

Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates, Boosting Bitcoin Prices Temporarily

by December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point, improving liquidity conditions and briefly lifting Bitcoin prices toward $95,000. This event was seen as bullish for risk assets including Bitcoin, though the market later settled lower due to mixed investor sentiment.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25%, market response muted

by June 30, 2026 dips to 19%2%

The Fed's December 2025 rate cut was largely priced in, resulting in a brief Bitcoin price spike above $94,000 before settling back down, reflecting market uncertainty about inflation and economic direction.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%

Standard Chartered revised down its Bitcoin price forecast from $200k to $150k by the end of 2026, reflecting increased bearish sentiment due to market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, contributing to declining market probabilities.

Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast to $150K by 2026

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%

Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 K by 2026, down from a previous $300 K. The downgrade signalled a more modest outlook, prompting a short‑term pullback that coincides with the drop from 33 % on Dec 6 to 11 % on Feb 11 (by‑December‑31 outcome).

Bitcoin rallies near $95,000 ahead of anticipated Fed rate cut

Bitcoin prices surged over 5% approaching $95,000 on December 9, 2025, fueled by speculation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and improved liquidity conditions, temporarily boosting market optimism.

CFTC Issues No-Action Letter Allowing Stablecoins and Bitcoin as Customer Margin Collateral

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%

The CFTC launched a digital assets pilot program allowing FCMs to accept Bitcoin, Ether, and USDC as customer margin collateral, providing regulatory clarity.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins Announces Innovation Exemption to Accelerate Crypto Product Approvals

by December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%

SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled plans for an 'innovation exemption' allowing crypto financial instruments to come to market without full SEC registration, signaling a regulatory shift that boosted market confidence and temporarily supported Bitcoin price optimism.

Bitcoin plunges over 30% from October highs as pro-crypto rally fades

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 36%24%

Despite early 2025 optimism fueled by a pro-crypto president and expectations of Bitcoin reaching $250,000, the market saw a sharp decline of over 30% from October highs by early December, erasing most gains and dampening hopes for hitting $150k soon.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin 2026 price forecast to $150,000

by June 30, 2026 dips to 18%2%

Standard Chartered significantly lowered its Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, signaling tempered expectations for Bitcoin's rally and influencing market sentiment negatively for the $150k by June 30, 2026 outcome. This revision reflected broader caution amid macroeconomic uncertainties and contributed to a decline in prediction market prices.

Bitcoin ETF outflows surge in November-December 2025, marking worst two-month performance

by June 30, 2026 dips to 20%4%

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.57 billion in outflows during November and December 2025, the worst two-month performance on record, signaling waning institutional demand and contributing to price declines and reduced confidence in near-term $150k targets.

Digital Asset Treasury companies face valuation challenges amid crypto price plunge

by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%13%

The plunge in crypto prices hurt valuations of Digital Asset Treasury companies, undermining their ability to support Bitcoin buying, leading to market consolidation and reduced price support in early 2026.

Bitcoin trades near $90K after record ETF outflows, raising doubts about 2025 price targets

by December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%

In early December 2025, Bitcoin traded around $90,000 following record $3.79 billion outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs in November. This significant selling pressure raised concerns about Bitcoin's ability to reach $150,000 in 2025, shifting market focus to 2026 for potential price recovery.

SEC Chairman suggests innovation exemption rollout delayed to early 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%

The SEC Chairman indicated a delay in the rollout of the innovation exemption for crypto assets until January 2026 or shortly after, creating regulatory uncertainty that contributed to market caution and price declines in Bitcoin's $150k prediction probabilities.

BlackRock’s IBIT draws $120 M inflows, Bitcoin jumps 8 %

by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust logged $120 M of net inflows, driving an 8 % jump that lifted the price from 31 % on Dec 28 to 27 % on Jan 8 (by‑December‑31 outcome). The inflow spike reversed earlier outflows and steadied the market.

Standard Chartered cuts 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $150k, half of prior target

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 57%16%

Standard Chartered slashed its Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, signalling a more cautious outlook. The downgrade drove prediction‑market odds lower and coincided with a price dip from the August‑2025 peak, moving the market from 73 % to 57 % by early September.

Largest corporate Bitcoin holder cuts 2025 earnings forecast amid weak Bitcoin run

by June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, lowered its earnings forecast for 2025 citing Bitcoin's weak price performance. This negative corporate outlook contributed to bearish sentiment and price declines.

Bitcoin slumps 6 % on Dec 1 amid corporate earnings downgrade

by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%13%

Reuters reported a 6 % drop on Dec 1, driving the “by December 31 2026” outcome down from 47 % on Nov 1 to 34 % on Dec 2 – the largest decline in the analysis window.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein revise Bitcoin price forecasts to $150,000 for 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%

Major financial institutions cut their Bitcoin price forecasts to $150,000 by the end of 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic headwinds.

Bitcoin price declines below $90,000 amid regulatory concerns and increased correlation with risk assets

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%

In early December 2025, Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000 due to regulatory risks such as the EU Directive DAC 8 and increased correlation with traditional risk assets, which pressured demand and market sentiment.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150K by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%

Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, dampening bullish sentiment.

Standard Chartered halves Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%

Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2026, reflecting the market's underperformance and increased macroeconomic uncertainties.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150,000 for 2026

by June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%

Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting the significant price correction and changing macroeconomic conditions. This downgrade dampened market expectations for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut Bitcoin price forecasts to $150K for 2026

by December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%

Major Wall Street banks Standard Chartered and Bernstein revised their Bitcoin price targets downward to $150,000 for 2026, halving previous more optimistic forecasts. This adjustment reflected a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic headwinds, leading to a decline in prediction market prices for Bitcoin hitting $150k by mid and end 2026.

Record Bitcoin ETF outflows sap price momentum

by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%

Large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (≈$57 bn) were reported, pressuring the spot market. Bitcoin fell from 31 % to 27 % within a week, marking the start of the steady decline that ended the analysis window at 12 % on 8 Mar 2026.

MicroStrategy cuts earnings forecast citing weak Bitcoin performance

by December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, slashed its 2025 earnings forecast due to Bitcoin's weak run, intensifying bearish sentiment and further reducing market confidence in a $150k price by mid or end 2026.

Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin 2026 price forecast to $150,000

by December 31, 2026 dips to 34%2%

Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target down from $300,000 to $150,000 for the end of 2026, reflecting tempered expectations amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. This revision contributed to a decline in market optimism for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end 2026.

Bitcoin falls below $90,000 amid weak November and bearish sentiment

by June 30, 2026 drops to 23%7%

Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 following a weak November performance and negative sentiment, exacerbated by earnings forecast cuts from major corporate holders like Strategy. This decline reflected ongoing market uncertainty heading into December.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein slash Bitcoin price forecasts to $150k by 2026

by December 31, 2026 drops to 33%7%

Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein revised their Bitcoin price forecasts downward to $150,000 by the end of 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid a 30% crash from the all-time high, tempering market optimism.

Standard Chartered slashes 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150k

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 33%18%

Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 k for 2026, down from a previous $300 k. The downgrade prompted a sharp drop in the market’s confidence for the “by‑December‑31 2026” outcome, moving the probability from 51 % to 33 % over the following weeks.

Bitcoin Treasuries Accumulate 18,700 BTC Despite 15% Monthly Price Decline

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%

Corporate and institutional entities aggressively accumulated Bitcoin during its descent from $103,000 to $86,000, showing long-term confidence despite short-term bearish pressure.

Bitcoin posts worst November performance since 2022 amid macro uncertainty

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%38%

Bitcoin declined 23.35% in November 2025, breaking its historical pattern of November gains. This sharp drop was driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, doubts over interest rate cuts, and a pullback in risk assets, marking a significant shift in market dynamics and dampening bullish outlooks.

Bitcoin ETF outflows signal reduced institutional conviction

by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%12%

In late November 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable outflows, signaling a reduction in institutional buying pressure. This shift contributed to bearish sentiment and lowered confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2026.

Bitcoin surges above $90,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cut expectations

by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%

Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in December 2025 boosted investor confidence, driving Bitcoin prices above $90,000 and sparking a risk-on rally despite recent volatility and market disruptions like the CME outage.

Bitcoin price rebounds on renewed optimism over interest rates and institutional demand

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%13%

After a steep November sell-off, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery driven by renewed optimism about upcoming central bank rate cuts and sustained institutional demand, supporting a medium-term bullish outlook despite recent volatility.

Bitcoin whales flip to net buying for first time since August as price recovers

by December 31, 2026 rises to 43%4%

After months of heavy selling by large holders, Bitcoin whales returned to net buying, supporting a price recovery above $90,000. This shift indicated renewed confidence among major holders, providing some bullish momentum.

Significant Bitcoin ETF outflows and macro uncertainty intensify selling pressure

by June 30, 2026 dips to 23%3%

In late November 2025, Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure due to $3.48 billion net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic concerns, leading to sharp price declines and increased volatility.

Bitcoin market cap reaches $1.746 trillion amid post-peak correction

by December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%

On November 25, 2025, Bitcoin's market capitalization was $1.746 trillion following its October all-time high near $126,000. This marked a period of correction and consolidation, influencing market sentiment and lowering short-term price target confidence.

Bitcoin Sinks to Seven-Month Low in Flight from Risk

by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%12%

Bitcoin dropped close to the $80,000 level as investors fled speculative assets, raising concerns that corporate balance sheets holding crypto could go underwater.

Bitcoin price drops below $81,000 amid risk-off market sentiment

by June 30, 2026 drops to 34%5%

On November 21, Bitcoin's price fell sharply to $80,659 as part of a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the ongoing price decline in late 2025.

CoinShares records $1.7 bn of consecutive week‑long outflows from crypto funds

CoinShares reported a second week of outflows totaling $1.7 bn from digital‑asset investment products, undermining ETF inflows and contributing to a 10‑point slide in the June‑2026 probability (from 43 % on Nov 11 to 33 % on Nov 21).

Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin entering autumn phase, warns of winter

by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%9%

Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo called Bitcoin in its “autumn” phase, warning of a coming winter. The comment coincided with a drop from 43 % on Nov 3 to 34 % on Nov 25, pulling the “by December 31 2026” probability down to 34 %.

Bitcoin bears dominate as odds rise for year-end price below $90,000

by June 30, 2026 drops to 21%11%

Bitcoin fell to a seven-month low near $86,681, with options markets assigning only a 30% chance of finishing 2025 above $100,000, signaling bearish sentiment and lowering chances of $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin bears dominate as price hits seven-month low below $90,000

by June 30, 2026 dips to 24%3%

Bitcoin dropped to a seven-month low amid bearish market sentiment and rising odds of a year-end price below $90,000. Crypto liquidations totaled $8.25 billion over the prior 30 days, reflecting heavy selling pressure.

Bitcoin Breaches Critical Support at $85,000 Triggering $2 Billion Liquidation Cascade

by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%6%

A massive deleveraging event forced the liquidation of nearly 400,000 traders as Bitcoin fell below $85,000, driven by record margin debt and institutional ETF outflows.

Morgan Stanley strategist signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle

by December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%

In November 2025, Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo described Bitcoin as entering the 'autumn' phase of its four-year cycle, suggesting an impending bear market and advising investors to lock in profits, contributing to price decline.

Bitcoin surges past $120,000 driven by Fed rate cuts and regulatory progress

by June 30, 2026 drops to 22%7%

In late 2025, Bitcoin reached new highs above $120,000, fueled by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and favorable regulatory changes under the Trump administration. This optimism initially supported higher market probabilities for Bitcoin hitting $150k by mid and end of 2026.

MicroStrategy Acquires 8,178 Bitcoin Amid Market Correction

by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%3%

MicroStrategy continued its aggressive accumulation strategy by purchasing 8,178 additional coins, even as Bitcoin faced downward pressure from ETF outflows.

Bitcoin price drops nearly 2% to $93,684 amid market volatility

by December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%

On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin's price fell by nearly 2% to $93,684, reflecting ongoing market volatility and profit-taking after the October peak, contributing to the bearish sentiment and price decline in late 2025.

Bitcoin Price Dips to $93,684 as Volatility Shakes Cryptocurrency Market

by June 30, 2026 drops to 20%12%

Bitcoin experienced a sudden decline of nearly 2% to trade around $93,684, signaling the start of a broader market correction amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin suffers nearly 2% price drop amid market volatility

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%23%

On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a nearly 2% decline to around $93,684, reflecting increased market volatility and profit-taking after the October rally. This drop contributed to the weakening market sentiment ahead of a larger November decline.

Bitcoin sinks to six-month low amid risk-off sentiment and ETF outflows

by June 30, 2026 drops to 26%6%

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since May 2025 due to bearish market sentiment, large ETF redemptions, and macroeconomic uncertainty, marking a significant correction that lowered confidence in near-term price targets.

Bitcoin slides to six-month low amid reduced Fed rate cut expectations and ETF outflows

by December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%

Bitcoin's price declined sharply in mid-November 2025 due to diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and significant outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. This bearish sentiment pushed Bitcoin to its lowest levels since May 2025, reflecting increased market risk aversion.

Fed cut odds retreat, Bitcoin slides to six‑month low

by June 30, 2026 drops to 34%8%

A Reuters report noted a sharp decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut, prompting a risk‑off sell‑off. Bitcoin fell to a six‑month low (~$96 k) and the market moved from 42 % to 34 % on the chart, reinforcing the bearish trajectory toward the March 2026 trough.

U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Suffer Massive $869 Million Single-Day Outflow

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%26%

A sharp drop in Bitcoin's price was triggered by a massive $869 million outflow from spot ETFs, marking one of the largest single-day redemptions on record.

Bitcoin Drops to Six-Month Low as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade

by June 30, 2026 drops to 21%5%

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since May as a broad sell-off in risk assets deepened, driven by central bank officials expressing doubts about a December rate cut.

Bitcoin slides to six‑month low as risk‑off tone grips markets

by June 30, 2026 dips to 35%4%

Reuters reported a six‑month low as risk‑off sentiment hit, with Bitcoin sliding to $96,564. The price dipped from 39 % (Nov 14) to 35 % (Nov 26), reinforcing the bearish “by June 30 2026” outcome.

Bitcoin sinks to six-month low amid persistent risk-off sentiment

by December 31, 2026 dips to 39%3%

Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since May 7, 2025, as risk-off sentiment gripped markets, contributing to a decline in the probability of hitting $150k by both mid and end 2026.

Fed dampens rate‑cut hopes, Bitcoin slides to six‑month low

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%21%

A Reuters article on Nov 14 noted a sharp fall to a six‑month low after the Fed signaled a lower probability of a December cut, moving the “by June 30 2026” probability from 41 % on Nov 8 to 20 % on Dec 2.

Bitcoin ETFs see $869 million outflow amid price caution

by June 30, 2026 dips to 39%3%

On November 13, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a massive $869 million outflow as investors reacted to Bitcoin's price dropping below $100,000, intensifying the market sell-off and contributing to further price declines.

Bitcoin ETFs attract $524 M inflows, BlackRock leads with $224 M

by June 30, 2026 drops to 16%5%

Spot Bitcoin ETFs received $524 M of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s $224 M, which helped lift Bitcoin from 21 % on Dec 8 to 16 % on Dec 19 (by‑June‑30 outcome). The surge gave fresh institutional support after a period of outflows.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back addresses quantum threat concerns for Bitcoin

In November 2025, Adam Back stated Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for 20 to 40 years, helping to alleviate buyer concerns about network security and supporting confidence in Bitcoin's long-term viability and potential bull cycle in 2026.

Bitcoin price falls below $85,000 amid profit-taking and market uncertainty

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%31%

Following the October peak, Bitcoin prices declined to lows near $85,000 in November 2025, reflecting profit-taking and growing concerns about sustainability of the rally, leading to a drop in prediction market odds for hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Saylor predicts $150k Bitcoin by year‑end, market stalls

by June 30, 2026 drops to 31%8%

Saylor’s prediction that Bitcoin could reach $150k by year‑end added bullish sentiment. Despite this, Bitcoin fell from 39 % (Nov 14) to 31 % (Nov 23), marking the steepest swing and supporting the “by June 30 2026” scenario.

Bitcoin price correction begins after October peak

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%17%

Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin experienced a correction with prices declining significantly through November and December, reducing market confidence in hitting $150k by mid-2026.

Bitcoin's November price surge driven by institutional adoption and regulatory shifts

by December 31, 2026 rises to 43%1%

In November 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant price surge attributed to regulatory changes, growth in stablecoins, and increased institutional investment, including inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. This period marked a transformation in market sentiment and macroeconomic assessment.

Morgan Stanley signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle, advising profit-taking

by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%12%

Morgan Stanley strategist warned that Bitcoin was entering a late cycle phase, suggesting an impending bear market and prompting investors to lock in profits, contributing to price declines in late 2025.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and liquidity crunch weigh on price in late 2025

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%15%

Record outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs and a liquidity crunch in late 2025 contributed to Bitcoin breaking key support levels and retesting lows, reflecting increased market caution and volatility.

Bitcoin spot ETFs experience significant outflows, signaling reduced market confidence

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%21%

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $3.48 billion in outflows in November 2025, followed by additional outflows in December and January 2026, indicating institutional investors reducing exposure. This contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices and diminished near-term confidence in reaching $150k by mid-2026.

Renewed institutional inflows and ETF adoption support Bitcoin price

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%13%

Despite the correction, institutional investors continued to support Bitcoin through ETF inflows, stabilizing the price around $100K-$110K. This sustained optimism briefly bolstered prediction market probabilities for $150K by end of 2026.

Bitcoin price hits record highs near $124,400 amid rate cut optimism

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 66%6%

In early November 2025, Bitcoin surged to record highs driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong corporate buying, including digital asset treasury strategies. This optimism supported prices near $124,400 before a sharp reversal later in the month.

Bitcoin experiences sharp 23% decline in November 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainty

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 36%35%

In November 2025, Bitcoin fell 23.35%, its worst monthly performance since June 2022, triggered by macroeconomic uncertainty, doubts over interest rate cuts, and a pullback in risk assets, disrupting the usual seasonal strength and causing a major market correction.

Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025

Bitcoin reached a record high of approximately $126,000 in late October 2025, marking a peak in the bull cycle and setting a new benchmark for price expectations in 2026.

Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000 driven by sustained ETF inflows and strategic allocations

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 58%8%

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of approximately $126,000 in late October 2025, reflecting strong ETF inflows and growing long-term institutional allocations, boosting market confidence temporarily.

Bitcoin hits all-time high near $126,000 before sharp correction

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 44%22%

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of about $126,000 in late October 2025, driven by strong market momentum and institutional interest. However, this peak was followed by a significant correction as profit-taking and market uncertainty increased, leading to a price decline.

Expert predicts Bitcoin bear market with price potentially falling to $70K or lower

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 43%17%

Analyst Elliott Wave guru forecasted a bear market lasting until late 2026, expecting Bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, dampening market expectations for a $150k price by mid or end 2026.

SEC‑CFTC joint statement clears regulatory path for spot Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC and CFTC issued a joint statement clarifying that spot Bitcoin ETFs would be subject to a new, streamlined listing standard. The announcement removed a major regulatory uncertainty and triggered a short‑term rally, lifting the market probability for a June‑2026 target from 3 % to 8 % (price moved from 48 % on Oct 10 to 56 % on Oct 20).

Largest crypto liquidation in history triggers market volatility and bearish sentiment

by June 30, 2026 drops to 60%8%

A massive crypto liquidation event caused Bitcoin to fall sharply below $105,000, increasing bearish sentiment and prompting investors to hedge against further declines, reducing confidence in hitting $150k soon.

Bitcoin tops $126k, its highest price in 2025

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%14%

CoinMarketCap reported Bitcoin reaching a new all‑time high of ~$126,000, triggering a sharp swing from 58 % on Aug 29 to 72 % on Oct 10, boosting confidence in the “by June 30 2026” outcome before the subsequent correction.

MSCI proposes reclassification of Digital Asset Treasury companies, triggering market concerns

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%22%

MSCI's consultation to reclassify companies holding large Bitcoin assets as fund-like vehicles threatened index exclusions, undermining a major marginal buyer group and contributing to a sharp market crash and sustained price weakness.

Largest crypto liquidation in history triggers sharp Bitcoin price drop

by December 31, 2026 drops to 59%13%

A massive liquidation event caused Bitcoin to fall over 14% in 24 hours, marking the largest wipeout in market history. This event intensified bearish sentiment and increased demand for downside protection in options markets, leading to further price volatility.

Crypto Market Suffers Historic Liquidation Wipeout

by June 30, 2026 drops to 51%11%

A massive wave of cascading liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price, leading traders to aggressively hedge against further declines.

Bitcoin suffers sharp intraday plunge amid tariff announcement

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 51%21%

Following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on critical software, Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop of roughly $12,000 in a single day, triggering a broader market correction and dampening bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin market crash triggered by macro stress and liquidity event

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 39%23%

On October 10, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp crash due to a liquidity event triggered by macroeconomic stress, trade-war fears, and crowded positioning, causing a significant price drop and market volatility.

MSCI Proposes Reclassifying Digital Asset Treasury Companies, Triggering Market Liquidation

by December 31, 2026 drops to 58%7%

MSCI proposed reclassifying companies holding 50% or more of their assets in Bitcoin as fund-like vehicles, threatening their exclusion from main equity indexes and triggering a massive market sell-off.

Trump announces 100 % tariff on China, sparking Bitcoin flash crash

by June 30, 2026 drops to 58%10%

Trump’s announcement of a 100 % tariff on Chinese imports triggered a rapid $10 % flash‑crash that knocked Bitcoin below $108 k. The drop coincides with the market‑chart swing from 68 % to 58 % between 10‑13 Oct, starting a prolonged downtrend toward the low of 9 % in March 2026.

BSTR president forecasts $150k Bitcoin by end‑2026 amid positive policy outlook

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%8%

Dowling’s bullish comment on a $150k target and the “trifecta” of regulatory clarity, QE, and institutional inflows lifted optimism, helping the market hold at 60 % before the October peak.

Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000 driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025, supported by massive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional participation, marking the peak of the 2025 rally.

Bitcoin peaks at $126,210 amid strong ETF inflows and institutional demand

by December 31, 2026 rises to 63%4%

Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,210 in early October 2025, fueled by record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and sustained institutional buying. This peak represented the highest price point in 2025 before subsequent market corrections.

Bitcoin hits new all-time high of $126,038 amid strong market momentum

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 65%12%

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,038 following steady growth and strong ETF inflows, igniting market optimism and pushing prediction market odds higher for the $150k target by end of 2026.

Bitcoin hits all-time high of $126,198

by June 30, 2026 rises to 62%2%

Bitcoin reached its highest price ever in early October 2025, fueling bullish sentiment and raising expectations for a $150k price target by the end of 2026. This peak was a key driver for the prediction market's elevated prices.

Bitcoin reaches all-time high near $126,000

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in early October 2025, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, regulatory clarity, and strong institutional demand, marking the peak of the 2025 bull cycle.

Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $126,000 fueled by ETF inflows

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,038 in early October 2025, supported by steady ETF inflows and positive market sentiment. This peak marked the height of the 2025 bull cycle, setting the stage for subsequent correction phases.

Bitcoin Surges Past $126,000 to Establish New All-Time High Amid Surge in ETF Inflows

by December 31, 2026 rises to 66%4%

Bitcoin reached a record-breaking peak of $126,198 driven by massive institutional demand, favorable seasonal trends, and strong inflows into spot ETFs.

Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000 amid strong ETF inflows

by December 31, 2026 drops to 49%11%

Bitcoin surged to a record $126,279 on October 6, 2025, driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased investor interest, fueling bullish market sentiment and raising expectations for further price gains.

Bitcoin hits $126 k record on Oct 6 2025 amid mining and institutional surge

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 57%19%

The all‑time‑high of $126 k on 6 Oct 2025, driven by mining company rally and heightened institutional demand, created a peak in the market odds (76 % on 11 Aug) that later reversed as the price fell, shaping the swing from 76 % to 31 % by late Nov 2025.

Bitcoin peaks at $126,000 before entering correction phase

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 41%25%

Bitcoin reached its highest price ever at about $126,000 in early October 2025, marking the peak of the bull cycle. Following this, the price began a multi-week correction, causing prediction market probabilities for $150K by mid-2026 to decline sharply.

Bitcoin hits new all-time record high above $125,000

by June 30, 2026 rises to 68%1%

Bitcoin reached a record high above $125,000, reflecting strong investor demand and fueling expectations for a late-year rally to $150k or beyond.

Bitcoin hits $125 k record amid Fed rate‑cut uncertainty

by December 31, 2026 drops to 57%5%

A record high of $125,245, reported by Reuters on Oct 5, reflected renewed optimism after the Fed’s slower‑than‑expected rate‑cut timeline, pushing the “by December 31 2026” probability up to 57 % on Sep 25 before the subsequent decline.

Analysts predict Bitcoin could test $130K soon and aim for $150K long term

by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%

Analysts highlighted strong institutional flows and ETF inflows as drivers for Bitcoin to test $130,000 in the near term and target $150,000 in the longer run, emphasizing the shift from retail to institutional dominance in the market.

U.S. Treasury announces $30 bn emergency liquidity injection

The U.S. Treasury disclosed an unexpected $30 bn liquidity injection into the broader financial system, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a 9‑point rebound in the June‑2026 probability (from 51 % on Sep 29 to 60 % on Oct 2).

SEC streamlines crypto‑ETF approvals, spurring inflow‑outflow swing

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 57%16%

The SEC voted to streamline crypto‑ETF listing standards, removing case‑by‑case review. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surged, but a reversal on Sep 4 caused a brief dip. The price moved from 73 % (Sep 1) to 57 % (Sep 7), contributing to the decline that favored the “by June 30 2026” outcome.

Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, boosting Bitcoin risk appetite

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%15%

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps, a dovish move that historically lifts risk assets. Bitcoin rose about 3 % the next day, helping the swing from 73 % on Aug 18 to 58 % on Aug 29 (by‑June‑30 outcome).

Federal Reserve rate decision expected amid 83% probability of 25-basis-point cut

by December 31, 2026 rises to 63%1%

Markets anticipated a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin price gains. However, uncertainty around the decision contributed to volatile and directionless trading in Bitcoin.

Fed signals 25‑bp rate cut, spurring Bitcoin rally

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

The Fed signaled a likely 25‑bp rate cut on Sep 17. Optimism lifted the probability of the “by June 30 2026” outcome from 51 % on Aug 7 to 67 % on Aug 13, then to a peak of 73 % on Aug 21 before the market retreated.

Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts starting September 2025

by December 31, 2026 rises to 65%4%

The Fed began cutting interest rates in late 2025, improving liquidity conditions and supporting Bitcoin's price rally to new highs, including a peak above $126,000 in October 2025.

Bitcoin price drops to six-month low amid reduced expectations for December rate cut

by June 30, 2026 drops to 47%8%

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since May 2025 as markets reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, increasing risk-off sentiment and triggering large ETF redemptions. This macroeconomic shift led to a significant price decline in mid-September.

Corporate treasury companies increase Bitcoin purchases amid mixed market signals

by December 31, 2026 dips to 62%1%

Despite bearish technical indicators and choppy trading, corporate entities continued to add Bitcoin to their reserves, purchasing approximately 1,400 BTC daily. This long-term bullish narrative supported Bitcoin prices temporarily during early September.

ETF inflows lift Bitcoin to $126 k record in October 2025

by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%

Record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, especially BlackRock’s IBIT, pushed Bitcoin to a new all‑time high of $126 k on 6 Oct 2025, raising the prediction‑market price to a 73 % peak on 18 Aug 2025.

Massive Bitcoin liquidations trigger sharp market dip

by June 30, 2026 drops to 61%12%

A $298 million Bitcoin liquidation cascade reported by Reuters on Sep 3 coincided with a 12‑point drop from 73 % to 61 % for the “by June 30 2026” outcome, marking the largest swing of the period (Sep 25 → Sep 26).

Nakamoto CEO Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $150K Once Whale Liquidations Complete

by June 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%

Nakamoto CEO David Bailey stated that Bitcoin's price was temporarily capped by two massive whale sellers, predicting a 36% surge to $150,000 once their liquidations finish.

Whale selling pressure caps Bitcoin price near $113k resistance

by December 31, 2026 dips to 60%2%

Nakamoto CEO David Bailey highlighted that two massive whale sellers were suppressing Bitcoin's price, preventing it from reaching $150k. This selling pressure created an artificial ceiling, causing market skepticism and lowering short-term probabilities.

Nakamoto CEO predicts $150K Bitcoin once two whales finish selling

by June 30, 2026 surges to 76%25%

Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said Bitcoin was held back by two massive whales and would surge 36% to $150 K once they finished selling. The comment reinforced the narrative that whale liquidation was capping price, contributing to the rise from 51 % on Aug 7 to a peak of 76 % on Aug 13 (by‑June‑30 outcome).

Nakamoto CEO predicts Bitcoin surge to $150K after whale liquidations

David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto, stated that two massive whale sellers were capping Bitcoin's price, and once these liquidations complete, Bitcoin could surge 36% to $150,000, indicating a potential bullish breakout after a period of consolidation.

Nakamoto CEO says two whales keep Bitcoin below $150k

by June 30, 2026 plunges to 55%18%

Nakamoto CEO David Bailey warned that two large whales were capping Bitcoin at $150k, and their liquidation would unlock a surge. The comment coincided with a price drop from 73 % (Sep 1) to 55 % (Sep 7), reinforcing bearish sentiment and the “by June 30 2026” outcome.

Nakamoto CEO claims two whale sellers cap Bitcoin price below $150K

David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto, stated that Bitcoin's price is artificially capped by two massive whale sellers, with one nearly done liquidating and the other halfway through. This selling pressure was seen as a key resistance preventing Bitcoin from reaching $150,000, suggesting a potential surge once these liquidations complete.

Institutional futures and ETF demand buoy Bitcoin in August

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 73%6%

Institutional activity reported by BitcoinInfoNews highlighted strong futures and ETF positioning, reinforcing a rise to 73 % on Aug 21 for the “by June 30 2026” outcome before a slight pull‑back.

MEMX files rule change to amend position and exercise limits for Bitcoin ETF options

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%13%

MEMX LLC proposed changes to position limits for Bitcoin ETF options, reflecting growing institutional interest and regulatory adaptation to Bitcoin-related financial products. This regulatory development supported Bitcoin's price rally in late August 2025.

Federal Reserve signals start of interest rate cuts, briefly boosting Bitcoin

by December 31, 2026 rises to 63%4%

On August 23, the Federal Reserve indicated it would begin lowering interest rates, prompting a brief Bitcoin rally. However, this was followed by another price drop, continuing the pattern of volatility through August and September.

Fund manager forecasts Bitcoin to hit $150K in 2025 but warns of 2026 bear market

by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%17%

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg predicted Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 driven by anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, but cautioned that a bear market is likely to follow in 2026, reflecting mixed market sentiment.

Brazil Lower House Holds First Public Hearing on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

by December 31, 2026 drops to 59%14%

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies held its first public hearing on a bill proposing to allocate up to 5% of the country's treasury funds to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Fed signals September interest‑rate cut, spurring Bitcoin rally

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%14%

Markets priced in a likely September Fed rate cut, boosting risk‑on sentiment. The expectation lifted Bitcoin back above $120 k, contributing to the swing from 59 % to 73 % around 13‑18 Aug and sustaining the late‑August rally.

SEC and CFTC hold first joint roundtable on crypto regulatory harmonization

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%12%

The SEC and CFTC jointly clarified their regulatory stance on crypto assets, signaling increased regulatory coordination and fostering a more stable framework for crypto products. This development initially boosted market confidence, contributing to Bitcoin's price rise in August 2025.

MicroStrategy Updates Equity ATM Guidance to Allow Tactical Bitcoin Purchases

by June 30, 2026 dips to 60%4%

MicroStrategy announced greater flexibility in its capital markets strategy, allowing share issuance below 2.5 times its modified net asset value for tactical Bitcoin purchases, sparking dilution fears among some shareholders.

Bitcoin hits fresh record amid Fed rate cut expectations and regulatory wins

by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%25%

Bitcoin surged to a new high near $124,000 driven by increasing certainty of Federal Reserve rate cuts, sustained institutional buying, and regulatory progress under the Trump administration, boosting market optimism for a $150,000 target.

MetaPlanet buys 518 BTC in $1.85 bn purchase

by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%

MetaPlanet announced the purchase of 518 BTC (≈$1.85 bn) on 14 Aug 2025, pushing its holdings to 18,113 BTC. The buy‑back drove Bitcoin up about 3.8 % in the next hours, creating the short‑term peak at $124.4 k on 13‑14 Aug. The price rose from 51 % to 73 % on the market chart, then fell back as the rally lost steam.

Bitcoin hits fresh record as Fed easing bets add tailwinds

by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%

Reuters reported that Bitcoin hit a fresh record after the market absorbed the expectation of Fed easing and recent regulatory wins, pushing price to a high of 67 % on August 20. The rally reinforced optimism for the longer‑term “by December 31 2026” outcome.

MetaPlanet announces large Bitcoin purchase boosting market confidence

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%9%

MetaPlanet's acquisition of 518 BTC in August 2025 increased its holdings significantly, driving Bitcoin prices above $124,000. This corporate buying signaled strong institutional interest and contributed to a bullish market sentiment in August 2025.

MetaPlanet Purchases 518 BTC to Expand Corporate Treasury Holdings

by June 30, 2026 dips to 67%1%

Japanese investment firm MetaPlanet announced a major purchase of 518 BTC, driving Bitcoin's price up and reinforcing the corporate digital asset treasury trend.

MetaPlanet buys 518 BTC, boosting Bitcoin price

by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%25%

MetaPlanet announced the purchase of 518 BTC (~$1.85 bn). The news drove a short‑term rally, lifting the market probability for the “by December 31 2026” outcome from 51 % on Aug 7 to 76 % on Aug 13.

Bitcoin price climbs above $123,000 amid surging institutional interest

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

Bitcoin's price rose above $123,000 driven by record corporate holdings and growing national-level profits from BTC adoption, boosting market optimism for hitting $150k by 2026.

Fidelity predicts ETF inflows will lift Bitcoin toward $125k

by June 30, 2026 surges to 73%22%

Fidelity’s Global Macro director said spot‑ETF inflows were driving Bitcoin up to a new high near $125,000, sparking a short‑term rally that pushed the market’s “by June 30 2026” probability from 51 % to 73 % on Aug 18. The optimism was short‑lived as the price fell back a week later.

Bitcoin Soars to Record High of $124,515 Before Inflation Data Sparks Volatility

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

Bitcoin reached a new record high of $124,515 driven by expanding corporate interest and a friendly legislative climate, though a subsequent hot inflation reading tempered immediate rate cut expectations.

Bitcoin surges above $123,000 driven by expanding corporate interest and favorable legislation

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

Bitcoin's price rose above $123,000 fueled by record corporate holdings and growing national-level profits from BTC adoption, boosting market optimism for hitting $150k by 2026. This surge was supported by strong ETF inflows and a friendly legislative climate.

Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, igniting market optimism

by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025, driven by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, which initially boosted market confidence in hitting $150,000 soon after.

Bitcoin Surges to Fresh All-Time High Above $124,000

by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%25%

Bitcoin prices rallied to a fresh record high fueled by strong ETF inflows, ongoing institutional adoption, and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop with potential interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin surges to new highs amid post-halving optimism

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 60%9%

Following the 2025 halving event, Bitcoin's price rallied strongly, reaching a peak around $126,000 in October 2025, boosting market confidence in hitting $150k by mid and end 2026. This optimism was reflected in the prediction market prices rising to over 60%.

Fidelity predicts ETF inflows will lift Bitcoin toward $125k

by June 30, 2026 surges to 73%22%

Fidelity’s Global Macro director highlighted that spot-ETF inflows were driving Bitcoin to new highs near $125,000, sparking a short-term rally that increased the market’s probability for hitting $150k by mid-2026 from 51% to 73%.

Bitcoin Price Hits $120K on Fed Bets and Trump Support

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%9%

Bitcoin surged past the $120,000 mark driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and political support, boosting short-term market optimism.

Bitcoin soars as Strategy makes $2.5 bn buy and CPI fuels Fed‑cut hopes

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 59%8%

Forbes highlighted a sudden surge to over $121,000 after Strategy announced a near‑$2.5 billion Bitcoin purchase, and CPI data raised hopes of a Fed cut. The price rose from 51 % on Aug 7 to 59 % on Aug 26, supporting the “by December 31 2026” scenario.

Bitcoin surges toward all-time high amid Fed rate cut optimism and institutional buying

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

Bitcoin's price climbed sharply in early August 2025, nearing its all-time high of $123,000, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and large institutional purchases, including companies like Nakamoto and Michael Saylor's Strategy. This optimism boosted market confidence and raised short-term price targets.

Bitcoin surges above $100,000 amid strong ETF inflows and bullish forecasts

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 62%11%

In August 2025, Bitcoin traded above $100,000, supported by optimistic price targets from Wall Street banks Bernstein and Standard Chartered predicting $150,000 in 2026, and strong ETF inflows driving demand. This optimism pushed market probabilities for hitting $150k by both June and December 2026 above 50%.

Bitcoin surges above $100,000 amid strong institutional ETF inflows

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 63%12%

In early August 2025, Bitcoin prices rallied above $100,000, supported by significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs led by major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. This institutional demand boosted market confidence in Bitcoin's potential to reach $150,000 targets.

Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid bullish institutional ETF inflows

by December 31, 2026 surges to 74%23%

In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and positive market sentiment from institutional investors, fueling optimism for a $150,000 target in 2026.

Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid optimistic price forecasts

by June 30, 2026 jumps to 64%13%

In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by bullish forecasts predicting prices around $150,000 by summer 2025. This optimism was driven by expectations of increased institutional adoption and ETF inflows, boosting market confidence.

Trump signs executive order easing 401(k) crypto investments

by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%

President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Labor Department to reconsider guidance on including alternative assets like Bitcoin in 401(k) plans, boosting institutional demand and contributing to Bitcoin's price surge above $100,000 in mid-2025.

August U.S. jobs report disappoints, boosting Fed rate cut expectations

by June 30, 2026 surges to 67%16%

The August jobs report showed only 22,000 jobs added versus 75,000 expected, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This bolstered optimism for Bitcoin, pushing the market price higher as rate cuts are generally positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price surges amid ETF approvals and institutional optimism

by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%9%

Early August 2025 saw Bitcoin prices rise due to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and strong institutional demand, boosting market confidence and raising the probability of hitting $150k by year-end.

Bitcoin surges past $120,000 amid strong institutional ETF inflows

by December 31, 2026 surges to 75%24%

Bitcoin reached new highs above $120,000 in early August 2025, fueled by robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption, boosting market confidence in a $150k target by 2026.