Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera during a military raid and the April arrest of CJNG commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores. June saw the capture of Sinaloa Cartel regional leader Gabriel “El 80” Martínez Larios of the Los Chapitos faction, alongside U.S. extraditions such as Roberto Najera Gutierrez. These actions amid ongoing factional violence and U.S. indictments reflect sustained bilateral enforcement pressure, with trader odds shaped by the pace of further raids, extradition proceedings, and leadership vacuums that could prompt additional captures before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?
$143,082 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
53%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
46%
$143,082 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
53%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
46%
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera during a military raid and the April arrest of CJNG commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores. June saw the capture of Sinaloa Cartel regional leader Gabriel “El 80” Martínez Larios of the Los Chapitos faction, alongside U.S. extraditions such as Roberto Najera Gutierrez. These actions amid ongoing factional violence and U.S. indictments reflect sustained bilateral enforcement pressure, with trader odds shaped by the pace of further raids, extradition proceedings, and leadership vacuums that could prompt additional captures before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen