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icon for Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?
Geopolitik·Mexiko

Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?

icon for Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?
Geopolitik·Mexiko

Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?

$176,762 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$176,762 Vol.

Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

$6,117 Vol.

34%

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

$6,098 Vol.

55%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$60,997 Vol.

43%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

$4,874 Vol.

20%

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

$58,662 Vol.

28%

Juan Reyes Mejía González

$33,388 Vol.

68%

Juan Pablo Ledezma

$679 Vol.

56%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican and U.S. authorities have intensified operations against major cartels in 2026, with CJNG and Sinaloa figures facing indictments, high-value rewards, and cross-border cooperation. The February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a raid triggered leadership shifts, followed by the April arrest of top commander Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) in Nayarit after months of surveillance. August announcements from the Department of Justice added charges and multimillion-dollar bounties for remaining CJNG suspects, including El Mencho’s stepson Juan Carlos Valencia González and several lieutenants. Parallel actions have targeted Sinaloa plaza bosses and facilitators through extraditions and lab disruptions. Ongoing joint task forces, drone intelligence, and reward programs continue to shape prospects for additional 2026 captures before year-end deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$176,762
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican and U.S. authorities have intensified operations against major cartels in 2026, with CJNG and Sinaloa figures facing indictments, high-value rewards, and cross-border cooperation. The February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a raid triggered leadership shifts, followed by the April arrest of top commander Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”) in Nayarit after months of surveillance. August announcements from the Department of Justice added charges and multimillion-dollar bounties for remaining CJNG suspects, including El Mencho’s stepson Juan Carlos Valencia González and several lieutenants. Parallel actions have targeted Sinaloa plaza bosses and facilitators through extraditions and lab disruptions. Ongoing joint task forces, drone intelligence, and reward programs continue to shape prospects for additional 2026 captures before year-end deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$176,762
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070be91...

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„Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Audias Flores-Silva" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Juan Reyes Mejía González" mit 83%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $176.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 23, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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