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Economía·Tarifas Globales

Decisión del Banco de México en mayo

Market icon
Economía·Tarifas Globales

Decisión del Banco de México en mayo

may 7

jun 25

may 7

jun 25

Sin cambios 74%

Disminución 25%

Aumento <1%

Polymarket

$53,935 Vol.

Sin cambios 74%

Disminución 25%

Aumento <1%

Polymarket

$53,935 Vol.

Disminución

$18,087 Vol.

25%

Sin cambios

$15,723 Vol.

74%

Aumento

$20,124 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability for no change in Banxico's target overnight interbank rate at the May 7 meeting, following the central bank's unexpected 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid a divided Governing Board vote and headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—the highest since August 2024. Persistent price pressures from excise taxes and tariffs have tempered easing expectations, reinforced by Governor Rodríguez's March 30 comments signaling the rate-cut cycle is nearing completion, while subdued 2025 GDP growth of 0.56% and 2026 forecasts around 1.5% support a pause over further decreases (25.5%). A rate hike (0.6%) remains negligible absent sharper inflationary shocks; watch April CPI data for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$53,935
Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% implied probability for no change in Banxico's target overnight interbank rate at the May 7 meeting, following the central bank's unexpected 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid a divided Governing Board vote and headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year in March—the highest since August 2024. Persistent price pressures from excise taxes and tariffs have tempered easing expectations, reinforced by Governor Rodríguez's March 30 comments signaling the rate-cut cycle is nearing completion, while subdued 2025 GDP growth of 0.56% and 2026 forecasts around 1.5% support a pause over further decreases (25.5%). A rate hike (0.6%) remains negligible absent sharper inflationary shocks; watch April CPI data for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$53,935
Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin cambios" con 74%, seguido de "Disminución" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 74¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 74% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" ha generado $53.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" es "Sin cambios" con 74%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 74% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Disminución" con 25%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Decisión del Banco de México en mayo" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.