**The 85.5% market-implied probability of no New Glenn launch in 2026 stems primarily from the May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire test explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** This destroyed a New Glenn vehicle (including booster GS1-3) and severely damaged the sole active pad—knocking out the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and hydraulic systems—while the propellant farm and other long-lead infrastructure survived. With only four months remaining in the year as of September 1, traders view full recovery, pad redesign (shifting to a horizontal/vertical hybrid configuration), vehicle reassembly, anomaly investigation, and regulatory approvals as highly unlikely. Blue Origin leadership, including CEO Dave Limp and founder Jeff Bezos, has repeatedly targeted a return to flight before year-end, citing completed debris removal, ongoing reconstruction, and plans to accelerate a new CONOPS already in development for the larger 9x4 variant. Earlier 2026 flights (including a successful booster reuse in April) showed progress, but the explosion halted momentum, leaving future missions—including Amazon Leo satellites and a NASA Blue Moon lander—listed as TBD. Historical precedents, such as multi-month pad rebuilds after similar incidents, reinforce trader caution despite the company’s aggressive timeline. Key upcoming catalysts include pad progress updates, static-fire results, or any slips that could push resolution into 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
15% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
15% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**The 85.5% market-implied probability of no New Glenn launch in 2026 stems primarily from the May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire test explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** This destroyed a New Glenn vehicle (including booster GS1-3) and severely damaged the sole active pad—knocking out the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and hydraulic systems—while the propellant farm and other long-lead infrastructure survived. With only four months remaining in the year as of September 1, traders view full recovery, pad redesign (shifting to a horizontal/vertical hybrid configuration), vehicle reassembly, anomaly investigation, and regulatory approvals as highly unlikely.
Blue Origin leadership, including CEO Dave Limp and founder Jeff Bezos, has repeatedly targeted a return to flight before year-end, citing completed debris removal, ongoing reconstruction, and plans to accelerate a new CONOPS already in development for the larger 9x4 variant. Earlier 2026 flights (including a successful booster reuse in April) showed progress, but the explosion halted momentum, leaving future missions—including Amazon Leo satellites and a NASA Blue Moon lander—listed as TBD. Historical precedents, such as multi-month pad rebuilds after similar incidents, reinforce trader caution despite the company’s aggressive timeline. Key upcoming catalysts include pad progress updates, static-fire results, or any slips that could push resolution into 2027.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$1,417Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**The 85.5% market-implied probability of no New Glenn launch in 2026 stems primarily from the May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire test explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** This destroyed a New Glenn vehicle (including booster GS1-3) and severely damaged the sole active pad—knocking out the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and hydraulic systems—while the propellant farm and other long-lead infrastructure survived. With only four months remaining in the year as of September 1, traders view full recovery, pad redesign (shifting to a horizontal/vertical hybrid configuration), vehicle reassembly, anomaly investigation, and regulatory approvals as highly unlikely.
Blue Origin leadership, including CEO Dave Limp and founder Jeff Bezos, has repeatedly targeted a return to flight before year-end, citing completed debris removal, ongoing reconstruction, and plans to accelerate a new CONOPS already in development for the larger 9x4 variant. Earlier 2026 flights (including a successful booster reuse in April) showed progress, but the explosion halted momentum, leaving future missions—including Amazon Leo satellites and a NASA Blue Moon lander—listed as TBD. Historical precedents, such as multi-month pad rebuilds after similar incidents, reinforce trader caution despite the company’s aggressive timeline. Key upcoming catalysts include pad progress updates, static-fire results, or any slips that could push resolution into 2027.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volumen
$1,417Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 85.5% market-implied probability of no New Glenn launch in 2026 stems primarily from the May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire test explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** This destroyed a New Glenn vehicle (including booster GS1-3) and severely damaged the sole active pad—knocking out the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and hydraulic systems—while the propellant farm and other long-lead infrastructure survived. With only four months remaining in the year as of September 1, traders view full recovery, pad redesign (shifting to a horizontal/vertical hybrid configuration), vehicle reassembly, anomaly investigation, and regulatory approvals as highly unlikely. Blue Origin leadership, including CEO Dave Limp and founder Jeff Bezos, has repeatedly targeted a return to flight before year-end, citing completed debris removal, ongoing reconstruction, and plans to accelerate a new CONOPS already in development for the larger 9x4 variant. Earlier 2026 flights (including a successful booster reuse in April) showed progress, but the explosion halted momentum, leaving future missions—including Amazon Leo satellites and a NASA Blue Moon lander—listed as TBD. Historical precedents, such as multi-month pad rebuilds after similar incidents, reinforce trader caution despite the company’s aggressive timeline. Key upcoming catalysts include pad progress updates, static-fire results, or any slips that could push resolution into 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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