Intense U.S. sanctions and an oil embargo since early 2026 have deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, with prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, and contraction under the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign following Nicolás Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela. Despite these strains and sporadic localized protests, the Cuban government has preserved institutional cohesion through its security apparatus and Communist Party structures, while approving 176 economic reforms in June 2026 that expand private enterprise and foreign investment to stabilize the socialist model. President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains in office, with no verified fractures in elite unity or organized domestic opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders view these factors as supporting continuity through 2026, producing an 88% implied probability against collapse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
Sí
12% probabilidad
$1,630,431 Vol.
$1,630,431 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
12% probabilidad
$1,630,431 Vol.
$1,630,431 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Intense U.S. sanctions and an oil embargo since early 2026 have deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, with prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, and contraction under the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign following Nicolás Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela. Despite these strains and sporadic localized protests, the Cuban government has preserved institutional cohesion through its security apparatus and Communist Party structures, while approving 176 economic reforms in June 2026 that expand private enterprise and foreign investment to stabilize the socialist model. President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains in office, with no verified fractures in elite unity or organized domestic opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders view these factors as supporting continuity through 2026, producing an 88% implied probability against collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volumen
$1,630,431Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Intense U.S. sanctions and an oil embargo since early 2026 have deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, with prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, and contraction under the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign following Nicolás Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela. Despite these strains and sporadic localized protests, the Cuban government has preserved institutional cohesion through its security apparatus and Communist Party structures, while approving 176 economic reforms in June 2026 that expand private enterprise and foreign investment to stabilize the socialist model. President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains in office, with no verified fractures in elite unity or organized domestic opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders view these factors as supporting continuity through 2026, producing an 88% implied probability against collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,630,431Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Intense U.S. sanctions and an oil embargo since early 2026 have deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, with prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, and contraction under the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign following Nicolás Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela. Despite these strains and sporadic localized protests, the Cuban government has preserved institutional cohesion through its security apparatus and Communist Party structures, while approving 176 economic reforms in June 2026 that expand private enterprise and foreign investment to stabilize the socialist model. President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains in office, with no verified fractures in elite unity or organized domestic opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders view these factors as supporting continuity through 2026, producing an 88% implied probability against collapse.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes