Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have lifted euro-area inflation projections, with ECB staff forecasts now showing headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026. The Governing Council has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while adopting a data-dependent stance and noting upside risks to price stability alongside downside risks to growth. Market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This outlook underpins the strong trader consensus against any rate cut materializing in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have lifted euro-area inflation projections, with ECB staff forecasts now showing headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026. The Governing Council has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while adopting a data-dependent stance and noting upside risks to price stability alongside downside risks to growth. Market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This outlook underpins the strong trader consensus against any rate cut materializing in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$27,989Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have lifted euro-area inflation projections, with ECB staff forecasts now showing headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026. The Governing Council has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while adopting a data-dependent stance and noting upside risks to price stability alongside downside risks to growth. Market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This outlook underpins the strong trader consensus against any rate cut materializing in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,989Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have lifted euro-area inflation projections, with ECB staff forecasts now showing headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026. The Governing Council has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while adopting a data-dependent stance and noting upside risks to price stability alongside downside risks to growth. Market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This outlook underpins the strong trader consensus against any rate cut materializing in 2026, though a swift de-escalation in regional conflicts or sharper growth slowdown could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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