Persistent inflation above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent data show headline HICP inflation exceeding 3% in August 2026, with staff projections averaging 3.0% for the year before easing only to 2.3% in 2027. The central bank delivered a 25 basis point hike in June and is widely expected to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September, reflecting a data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Traders' strong conviction aligns with this hawkish path and resilient labor conditions. A swift resolution of geopolitical tensions could accelerate disinflation and open the door to a late-2026 cut, though such an outcome remains a low-probability tail risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent data show headline HICP inflation exceeding 3% in August 2026, with staff projections averaging 3.0% for the year before easing only to 2.3% in 2027. The central bank delivered a 25 basis point hike in June and is widely expected to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September, reflecting a data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Traders' strong conviction aligns with this hawkish path and resilient labor conditions. A swift resolution of geopolitical tensions could accelerate disinflation and open the door to a late-2026 cut, though such an outcome remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$31,875Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent data show headline HICP inflation exceeding 3% in August 2026, with staff projections averaging 3.0% for the year before easing only to 2.3% in 2027. The central bank delivered a 25 basis point hike in June and is widely expected to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September, reflecting a data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Traders' strong conviction aligns with this hawkish path and resilient labor conditions. A swift resolution of geopolitical tensions could accelerate disinflation and open the door to a late-2026 cut, though such an outcome remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$31,875Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent data show headline HICP inflation exceeding 3% in August 2026, with staff projections averaging 3.0% for the year before easing only to 2.3% in 2027. The central bank delivered a 25 basis point hike in June and is widely expected to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September, reflecting a data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Traders' strong conviction aligns with this hawkish path and resilient labor conditions. A swift resolution of geopolitical tensions could accelerate disinflation and open the door to a late-2026 cut, though such an outcome remains a low-probability tail risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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