Recent Middle East conflict developments have driven sharp rises in energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to around 3 percent in April and prompting the ECB to revise 2026 projections upward to 2.6 percent. At its April 30 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while extensively debating future tightening, with policymakers signaling possible 25-basis-point hikes starting in June absent rapid de-escalation. These data-dependent pressures, combined with resilient core inflation and second-round effects, have led traders to assign an 88 percent probability against any rate cut occurring in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict developments have driven sharp rises in energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to around 3 percent in April and prompting the ECB to revise 2026 projections upward to 2.6 percent. At its April 30 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while extensively debating future tightening, with policymakers signaling possible 25-basis-point hikes starting in June absent rapid de-escalation. These data-dependent pressures, combined with resilient core inflation and second-round effects, have led traders to assign an 88 percent probability against any rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$27,913Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East conflict developments have driven sharp rises in energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to around 3 percent in April and prompting the ECB to revise 2026 projections upward to 2.6 percent. At its April 30 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while extensively debating future tightening, with policymakers signaling possible 25-basis-point hikes starting in June absent rapid de-escalation. These data-dependent pressures, combined with resilient core inflation and second-round effects, have led traders to assign an 88 percent probability against any rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,913Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East conflict developments have driven sharp rises in energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to around 3 percent in April and prompting the ECB to revise 2026 projections upward to 2.6 percent. At its April 30 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while extensively debating future tightening, with policymakers signaling possible 25-basis-point hikes starting in June absent rapid de-escalation. These data-dependent pressures, combined with resilient core inflation and second-round effects, have led traders to assign an 88 percent probability against any rate cut occurring in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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