Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿Compartir el voto verde?
Elecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿Compartir el voto verde?
<20% 27%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 19%
30-35% 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<20%
27%
20-25%
21%
25-30%
19%
30-35%
17%
35-40%
15%
40%+
12%
<20% 27%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 19%
30-35% 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<20%
$19 Vol.
27%
20-25%
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30%
$39 Vol.
19%
30-35%
$58 Vol.
17%
35-40%
$19 Vol.
15%
40%+
$39 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$213Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$213Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Zack Polanski’s selection as Green candidate has intensified focus on the party’s local momentum from May 2026 Camden council gains and Feinstein’s endorsement, while Labour fields council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali in a seat held continuously since 1983. With the 8 October poll three weeks away, trader probabilities remain dispersed across 20–40% brackets because the left-leaning vote split, turnout patterns, and ground-campaign effectiveness are still fluid. Recent doorstep activity and national Labour messaging under Prime Minister Burnham have not yet produced decisive separation, leaving room for late shifts from targeted issues such as housing or protest sentiment to move the Green share into a clearer range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá el candidato del Partido Laborista entre el 30% y el 35% de los votos en la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
26%
Sí
¿Ganará el candidato laborista la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras por un margen de 10-15%?
41%
Sí
¿Ganará Sagal Abdi-Wali la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
77%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes