Recent polls show a knife-edge contest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, with Maskína and Gallup surveys placing Yes and No within 2–3 points of each other in late August. The narrow gap reflects deep divisions over fisheries sovereignty, agricultural policy, and national control versus potential gains in trade stability and interest rates amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and Arctic security concerns. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s coalition has framed the ballot as the first of two required votes, allowing voters to test negotiation terms later. This two-step structure and persistent undecided voters keep the expected margin of victory tightly clustered near zero, sustaining trader focus on sub-3% outcomes while leaving room for last-minute shifts in turnout or late campaign developments to alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo 9–12% 45%
Sí 3–6% 36%
Sí <3% 28%
No 12–15% 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
Sí 15%+
4%
Sí 12–15%
9%
Sí 9–12%
1%
Sí 6–9%
20%
Sí 3–6%
23%
Sí <3%
28%
No <3%
43%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
24%
No 9–12%
45%
No 12–15%
22%
No 15%+
18%
No 9–12% 45%
Sí 3–6% 36%
Sí <3% 28%
No 12–15% 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
Sí 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Sí 12–15%
$87 Vol.
9%
Sí 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Sí 6–9%
$11 Vol.
20%
Sí 3–6%
$44 Vol.
23%
Sí <3%
$44 Vol.
28%
No <3%
$43 Vol.
43%
No 3–6%
$24 Vol.
24%
No 6–9%
$24 Vol.
24%
No 9–12%
$22 Vol.
45%
No 12–15%
$86 Vol.
22%
No 15%+
$16 Vol.
18%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show a knife-edge contest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, with Maskína and Gallup surveys placing Yes and No within 2–3 points of each other in late August. The narrow gap reflects deep divisions over fisheries sovereignty, agricultural policy, and national control versus potential gains in trade stability and interest rates amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and Arctic security concerns. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s coalition has framed the ballot as the first of two required votes, allowing voters to test negotiation terms later. This two-step structure and persistent undecided voters keep the expected margin of victory tightly clustered near zero, sustaining trader focus on sub-3% outcomes while leaving room for last-minute shifts in turnout or late campaign developments to alter the result.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volumen
$531Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show a knife-edge contest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, with Maskína and Gallup surveys placing Yes and No within 2–3 points of each other in late August. The narrow gap reflects deep divisions over fisheries sovereignty, agricultural policy, and national control versus potential gains in trade stability and interest rates amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and Arctic security concerns. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s coalition has framed the ballot as the first of two required votes, allowing voters to test negotiation terms later. This two-step structure and persistent undecided voters keep the expected margin of victory tightly clustered near zero, sustaining trader focus on sub-3% outcomes while leaving room for last-minute shifts in turnout or late campaign developments to alter the result.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$531Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a knife-edge contest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, with Maskína and Gallup surveys placing Yes and No within 2–3 points of each other in late August. The narrow gap reflects deep divisions over fisheries sovereignty, agricultural policy, and national control versus potential gains in trade stability and interest rates amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and Arctic security concerns. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s coalition has framed the ballot as the first of two required votes, allowing voters to test negotiation terms later. This two-step structure and persistent undecided voters keep the expected margin of victory tightly clustered near zero, sustaining trader focus on sub-3% outcomes while leaving room for last-minute shifts in turnout or late campaign developments to alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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