Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5,000-5,500 US flight delays on March 24 (41.7% implied probability), driven by historical spring averages of 4,500-6,000 delays per day amid routine factors like air traffic congestion at major hubs and minor weather variability. Recent FAA data shows March 23 delays at 4,800, with no widespread disruptions from staffing shortages or mechanical issues. Favorable forecasts predict mostly clear conditions nationwide, reducing risks of snow or storms that spiked February numbers above 7,000. Lower odds for extremes reflect absent catalysts like holidays or FAA ground stops, positioning moderate ranges as leading outcomes absent late surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Número de vuelos de EE. UU. retrasados el 24 de marzo?
¿Número de vuelos de EE. UU. retrasados el 24 de marzo?
5000-5500 53.3%
6000-6500 18%
5500-6000 16%
<5000 10.1%
$7,952 Vol.
$7,952 Vol.
<5000
10%
5000-5500
53%
5500-6000
16%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
13%
7000-7500
3%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
5%
5000-5500 53.3%
6000-6500 18%
5500-6000 16%
<5000 10.1%
$7,952 Vol.
$7,952 Vol.
<5000
10%
5000-5500
53%
5500-6000
16%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
13%
7000-7500
3%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
5%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5,000-5,500 US flight delays on March 24 (41.7% implied probability), driven by historical spring averages of 4,500-6,000 delays per day amid routine factors like air traffic congestion at major hubs and minor weather variability. Recent FAA data shows March 23 delays at 4,800, with no widespread disruptions from staffing shortages or mechanical issues. Favorable forecasts predict mostly clear conditions nationwide, reducing risks of snow or storms that spiked February numbers above 7,000. Lower odds for extremes reflect absent catalysts like holidays or FAA ground stops, positioning moderate ranges as leading outcomes absent late surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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