Despite preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in February 2026—including a draft constitution handed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a roadmap for reform—trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no referendum announcement by year-end, driven by the absence of subsequent legislative action. AKP's recent parliamentary seat gains via opposition defections have not bridged the gap to the 360 votes required for a referendum under Article 175, amid opposition resistance from CHP and others prioritizing early elections or power transition debates. Recent reports highlight stalled momentum, Erdoğan's health rumors, and shifting focus to judicial consolidation and reintegration policies, with no bill introduction or cross-party negotiations advancing since early Q1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in February 2026—including a draft constitution handed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a roadmap for reform—trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no referendum announcement by year-end, driven by the absence of subsequent legislative action. AKP's recent parliamentary seat gains via opposition defections have not bridged the gap to the 360 votes required for a referendum under Article 175, amid opposition resistance from CHP and others prioritizing early elections or power transition debates. Recent reports highlight stalled momentum, Erdoğan's health rumors, and shifting focus to judicial consolidation and reintegration policies, with no bill introduction or cross-party negotiations advancing since early Q1.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$33Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in February 2026—including a draft constitution handed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a roadmap for reform—trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no referendum announcement by year-end, driven by the absence of subsequent legislative action. AKP's recent parliamentary seat gains via opposition defections have not bridged the gap to the 360 votes required for a referendum under Article 175, amid opposition resistance from CHP and others prioritizing early elections or power transition debates. Recent reports highlight stalled momentum, Erdoğan's health rumors, and shifting focus to judicial consolidation and reintegration policies, with no bill introduction or cross-party negotiations advancing since early Q1.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$33Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite preparations by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in February 2026—including a draft constitution handed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a roadmap for reform—trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no referendum announcement by year-end, driven by the absence of subsequent legislative action. AKP's recent parliamentary seat gains via opposition defections have not bridged the gap to the 360 votes required for a referendum under Article 175, amid opposition resistance from CHP and others prioritizing early elections or power transition debates. Recent reports highlight stalled momentum, Erdoğan's health rumors, and shifting focus to judicial consolidation and reintegration policies, with no bill introduction or cross-party negotiations advancing since early Q1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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