The Bears' board vote on June 5 to advance stadium development in Hammond, Indiana—following the Illinois legislature's failure to pass enabling tax-incentive legislation before adjourning—has created near-even odds on departure by year-end. Arlington Heights remains the only in-state alternative under active consideration, with both sites offering comparable scale for a domed venue and mixed-use district. Ongoing talks with Illinois officials, potential summer special sessions, and the team's stated commitment to finalize evaluation soon keep relocation probability balanced near 52 percent. Key variables that could shift sentiment include new infrastructure funding commitments from Springfield, final site selection details, or any NFL ownership input on cross-state moves.