Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 24, 2026, at $376, with Polymarket traders pricing a flat probability distribution across $350–$395 bins at roughly 50% implied odds each, reflecting high short-term uncertainty ahead of the April 27 week-end close. Q1 2026 earnings on April 22 beat EPS estimates at $0.41 versus $0.37 expected, but revenue disappointed amid slumping EV demand—evidenced by 50,000-unit inventory buildup, 24% California registration drop, and 50–90% sales declines in key markets like Germany and Norway—offset by surging $25 billion+ capex for AI, robotics, and autonomy. Delays in unsupervised FSD v15 scale-up to late 2026 eroded bullish momentum, capping post-earnings gains despite analyst consensus price targets near $400. Key swing factors include technical support at $370, resistance at $390, and any Elon Musk updates, as trader sentiment hinges on AI optionalities versus automotive weakness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$360-$365 43%
$355-$360 43%
$375-$380 43%
$350-$355 42%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
<$350
23%
$350-$355
42%
$355-$360
43%
$360-$365
43%
$365-$370
37%
$370-$375
7%
$375-$380
43%
$380-$385
7%
$385-$390
40%
$390-$395
41%
>$395
37%
$360-$365 43%
$355-$360 43%
$375-$380 43%
$350-$355 42%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
<$350
$0 Vol.
23%
$350-$355
$0 Vol.
42%
$355-$360
$0 Vol.
43%
$360-$365
$0 Vol.
43%
$365-$370
$0 Vol.
37%
$370-$375
$0 Vol.
7%
$375-$380
$0 Vol.
43%
$380-$385
$0 Vol.
7%
$385-$390
$0 Vol.
40%
$390-$395
$0 Vol.
41%
>$395
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 24, 2026, at $376, with Polymarket traders pricing a flat probability distribution across $350–$395 bins at roughly 50% implied odds each, reflecting high short-term uncertainty ahead of the April 27 week-end close. Q1 2026 earnings on April 22 beat EPS estimates at $0.41 versus $0.37 expected, but revenue disappointed amid slumping EV demand—evidenced by 50,000-unit inventory buildup, 24% California registration drop, and 50–90% sales declines in key markets like Germany and Norway—offset by surging $25 billion+ capex for AI, robotics, and autonomy. Delays in unsupervised FSD v15 scale-up to late 2026 eroded bullish momentum, capping post-earnings gains despite analyst consensus price targets near $400. Key swing factors include technical support at $370, resistance at $390, and any Elon Musk updates, as trader sentiment hinges on AI optionalities versus automotive weakness.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 24, 2026, at $376, with Polymarket traders pricing a flat probability distribution across $350–$395 bins at roughly 50% implied odds each, reflecting high short-term uncertainty ahead of the April 27 week-end close. Q1 2026 earnings on April 22 beat EPS estimates at $0.41 versus $0.37 expected, but revenue disappointed amid slumping EV demand—evidenced by 50,000-unit inventory buildup, 24% California registration drop, and 50–90% sales declines in key markets like Germany and Norway—offset by surging $25 billion+ capex for AI, robotics, and autonomy. Delays in unsupervised FSD v15 scale-up to late 2026 eroded bullish momentum, capping post-earnings gains despite analyst consensus price targets near $400. Key swing factors include technical support at $370, resistance at $390, and any Elon Musk updates, as trader sentiment hinges on AI optionalities versus automotive weakness.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$0End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 24, 2026, at $376, with Polymarket traders pricing a flat probability distribution across $350–$395 bins at roughly 50% implied odds each, reflecting high short-term uncertainty ahead of the April 27 week-end close. Q1 2026 earnings on April 22 beat EPS estimates at $0.41 versus $0.37 expected, but revenue disappointed amid slumping EV demand—evidenced by 50,000-unit inventory buildup, 24% California registration drop, and 50–90% sales declines in key markets like Germany and Norway—offset by surging $25 billion+ capex for AI, robotics, and autonomy. Delays in unsupervised FSD v15 scale-up to late 2026 eroded bullish momentum, capping post-earnings gains despite analyst consensus price targets near $400. Key swing factors include technical support at $370, resistance at $390, and any Elon Musk updates, as trader sentiment hinges on AI optionalities versus automotive weakness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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