Surging April 2026 CPI inflation to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy costs, has anchored Federal Reserve policy at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, unchanged after the April 29 FOMC decision amid policymaker dissent on further easing. Steady 4.3% unemployment underscores labor market resilience, tempering cut expectations despite the March dot plot's median projection for low-3% rates by end-2027. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by real capital, now implies elevated odds for a hike toward 3.75%-4.00% before 2027, reflecting sticky price pressures. Watch the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI on June 10 for pivotal shifts in rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCME FedWatch shows declining probability of another cut after the April meeting, pulling the market back to 11 %
↓ 1.25% plunges to 11%15%
CME FedWatch shows declining probability of another cut after the April meeting, pulling the market back to 11 %
Latest data release shows CPI at 2.7 % YoY, reinforcing the view that inflation is near target and that the Fed may hold rates steady, cementing the market’s low confidence in a 3
↓ 3.0% drops to 14%6%
Latest data release shows CPI at 2.7 % YoY, reinforcing the view that inflation is near target and that the Fed may hold rates steady, cementing the market’s low confidence in a 3 % target
| [Final pre‑resolution update: Fed’s latest minutes stress “inflation still above target,” dampening 3 % expectations] ||
| [Final pre‑resolution update: Fed’s latest minutes stress “inflation still above target,” dampening 3 % expectations] ||
Fed officials warn that higher inflation and energy shocks may delay or prevent rate cuts, with some even considering rate hikes if inflation persists
↓ 1.5% rises to 8%1%
Statements from Fed officials emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of rate hikes reinforced the low probability of rates falling to 1.5%.
| [Fed releases “no‑cut” statement after a brief market rally, pushing 3 % odds down] ||
↓ 3.0 % dips to 11%4%
| [Fed releases “no‑cut” statement after a brief market rally, pushing 3 % odds down] ||
Market reacts to Fed Chair Powell’s comments emphasizing data dependency and caution on further rate cuts
↓ 3.25% plunges to 36%15%
Powell’s remarks reinforced expectations that rates might not fall to 3.25% soon, driving the
Fed maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with divided votes; Governor Miran votes to cut rates by 25 basis points, signaling ongoing internal Fed debate
↑ 5.25% plunges to 7%16%
The May 2026 decision to hold rates with dissent against cuts caused a quick market reassessment, lowering the probability of reaching 5.25% again.
| Schwab reports four policymakers dissented to the April pause, underscoring uncertainty and reducing hopes of a rapid cut to 3 % |
↓ 3.0 % drops to 10%6%
| Schwab reports four policymakers dissented to the April pause, underscoring uncertainty and reducing hopes of a rapid cut to 3 % |
| Fed holds rates steady amid dissent, with Powell signalling he will stay on the Board indefinitely |
↓ 3.0 % drops to 16%7%
| Fed holds rates steady amid dissent, with Powell signalling he will stay on the Board indefinitely |
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation uncertainty and energy
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady amid inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty confirmed the market's reduced expectations for cuts to 1.5%.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic activity but high uncertainty from Middle East developments; notable dissent with some members voting to lower rates
↑ 5.25% surges to 23%19%
The April 2026 pause, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and dissent within the Fed, briefly increased market odds for a higher rate, reflecting uncertainty about future hikes.
FOMC leaves rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation risks and soft labor market;
↓ 2.75% dips to 17%2%
Fed adopts cautious stance amid geopolitical uncertainty
Federal Reserve holds benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting
↑ 4.75% jumps to 9%5%
The Fed's April 2026 meeting resulted in no rate change, despite some dissent for a rate cut, reflecting ongoing divisions and cautious optimism about economic growth, which caused a modest rebound in the market's probability for the 4.75% rate.
Market
↓ 2.5% drops to 11%6%
Fed’s ongoing cautious tone and lack of new easing measures pushed down the probability of rates reaching 2.5%.
Fed’s April meeting keeps the target range at 3.5 %–3.75% for the third straight time, confirming a lower bound at 3.5 % and pushing the 3 % outcome toward the low‑end
↓ 3.0% dips to 20%1%
Fed’s April meeting keeps the target range at 3.5 %–3.75% for the third straight time, confirming a lower bound at 3.5 % and pushing the 3 % outcome toward the low‑end
The Fed begins modest reserve‑management purchases, a move aimed at keeping short‑term rates near the current target range, further reducing expectations of a deep cut to 2.25 %
↓ 2.25% dips to 8%2%
The Fed begins modest reserve‑management purchases, a move aimed at keeping short‑term rates near the current target range, further reducing expectations of a deep cut to 2.25 %
| [Release of weaker Q1 GDP data fuels speculation of a 2026 cut toward 3 %] ||
| [Release of weaker Q1 GDP data fuels speculation of a 2026 cut toward 3 %] ||
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with some officials dissenting for no change, reflecting uncertainty about further cuts
↓ 3.25% plunges to 46%21%
The lack of consensus and steady rates reduced confidence in reaching 3.25%, pushing the
Market dip after Fed officials emphasize risks and conditional future moves despite recent rate cuts
↓ 0.75% dips to 5%4%
Fed comments highlighted ongoing risks and a data-dependent approach, reducing expectations for a 0.75% cut by year-end.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5 %– 3.75 % with Governor Miran voting to lower by 25 bps, but three members object, keeping the 1.25 % scenario alive
↓ 1.25% jumps to 26%9%
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5 %– 3.75 % with Governor Miran voting to lower by 25 bps, but three members object, keeping the 1.25 % scenario alive
| Fidelity reports the Fed’s April 2026 meeting left rates unchanged, confirming a pause and pushing the “Yes” probability to a historic low ||
↓ 2.5% drops to 9%7%
| Fidelity reports the Fed’s April 2026 meeting left rates unchanged, confirming a pause and pushing the “Yes” probability to a historic low ||
Fed’s Austan Goolsbee says further cuts are possible if inflation stays on track, boosting odds of a 1.25 % floor
↓ 1.25% drops to 17%9%
Fed’s Austan Goolsbee says further cuts are possible if inflation stays on track, boosting odds of a 1.25 % floor
| [Fed’s April 2026 meeting holds rates steady for a third time, with a dissenting vote to lower] ||
↓ 3.0 % drops to 22%13%
| [Fed’s April 2026 meeting holds rates steady for a third time, with a dissenting vote to lower] ||
Fed Governor Miran votes to lower rates by 25 bps while three others object, highlighting internal division and raising doubts about a near‑term 3 % floor
↓ 3.0% drops to 21%13%
Fed Governor Miran votes to lower rates by 25 bps while three others object, highlighting internal division and raising doubts about a near‑term 3 % floor
| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |
↓ 2.25% dips to 6%1%
| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |
Fed holds rates steady in April amid “still‑elevated” inflation and higher oil
↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%
Fed holds rates steady in April amid “still‑elevated” inflation and higher oil
Fed announces plans to buy short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample reserves, signaling a more cautious approach to rate cuts
↓ 3.25% drops to 56%9%
This move suggested the Fed was not aggressively cutting rates, leading to a
| Kiplinger commentary notes that inflation expectations drifted lower but the Fed still judged reserves “ample,” reinforcing a hold stance |
↓ 3.0 % drops to 27%11%
| Kiplinger commentary notes that inflation expectations drifted lower but the Fed still judged reserves “ample,” reinforcing a hold stance |
Fed minutes reveal a 9‑3 vote for the latest cut and a “cautious” stance, reigniting hopes of a deeper path toward 1.25 %
↓ 1.25% surges to 26%22%
Fed minutes reveal a 9‑3 vote for the latest cut and a “cautious” stance, reigniting hopes of a deeper path toward 1.25 %
| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |
↓ 2.25% dips to 7%2%
| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |
| [U.S. payroll growth slows sharply, reviving hopes of a deeper rate cut] ||
↓ 3.0 % drops to 39%13%
| [U.S. payroll growth slows sharply, reviving hopes of a deeper rate cut] ||
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainty and Middle East conflict impact
↑ 4.75% rises to 4%1%
The Fed's decision to maintain rates in March 2026, citing solid economic activity but cautious outlook due to geopolitical risks, stabilized the market probability at low levels, with some officials signaling possible future rate moves depending on inflation.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% amid split views and persistent inflation above target
↓ 3.25% drops to 77%14%
The Fed’s decision to pause and the dissenting votes signaled a slower pace of cuts, causing a notable
FOMC meeting minutes reveal increased probability of rate hikes later in 2026 due to inflation pressures and energy
↓ 1.5% dips to 6%3%
Rising inflation concerns and geopolitical risks led markets to
| Redbridge reports the mid‑March 2026 FOMC meeting paused, keeping rates at 4.25 %‑4.50% after a split vote |
↓ 3.0 % plunges to 40%30%
| Redbridge reports the mid‑March 2026 FOMC meeting paused, keeping rates at 4.25 %‑4.50% after a split vote |
| [Mid‑March 2026 FOMC pauses, keeping the 3.5‑3.75 % range] ||
↓ 3.0 % plunges to 24%32%
| [Mid‑March 2026 FOMC pauses, keeping the 3.5‑3.75 % range] ||
Fed’s March meeting pauses rate moves, keeping the range at 3.75 %–4.00 % and noting “inflation still above target,” which triggers a sharp drop in the 3 % probability
↓ 3.0% drops to 69%14%
Fed’s March meeting pauses rate moves, keeping the range at 3.75 %–4.00 % and noting “inflation still above target,” which triggers a sharp drop in the 3 % probability
Continued cautious Fed stance amid stable inflation and labor market data
↓ 2.5% dips to 13%3%
Stable economic indicators and Fed communications kept expectations for deep cuts low.
Minutes from the March 2026 FOMC meeting show a majority voting to keep rates steady, dampening hopes of a rapid slide toward 2.25 % and causing a modest
↓ 2.25% dips to 13%4%
Minutes from the March 2026 FOMC meeting show a majority voting to keep rates steady, dampening hopes of a rapid slide toward 2.25 % and causing a modest
| CNBC minutes reveal that without a restart of quantitative easing, reserves could fall, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut further ||
↓ 2.5% dips to 16%3%
| CNBC minutes reveal that without a restart of quantitative easing, reserves could fall, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut further ||
Sharp market drop (-26 points) after Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, signaling no imminent cuts despite inflation cooling;
↓ 2.75% plunges to 28%26%
market adjusts down probability of hitting 2.75%
Federal data‑release delays from the shutdown cause Fed to pause cuts, pushing the market to a low of 3 % probability
↓ 1.25% dips to 4%4%
Federal data‑release delays from the shutdown cause Fed to pause cuts, pushing the market to a low of 3 % probability
Market reacts to Fed signals of cautious policy amid mixed economic data, causing a temporary rise in odds for a larger cut
↓ 0.75% jumps to 12%7%
Softening labor market and inflation data led to speculation of more aggressive easing, briefly lifting probabilities.
| Reuters analysis shows the Fed’s “deep divisions” after the December cut, suggesting only one more cut next year |
↓ 3.0 % dips to 82%2%
| Reuters analysis shows the Fed’s “deep divisions” after the December cut, suggesting only one more cut next year |
| Reuters notes the Fed’s “no‑risk‑free path” comment and the continuation of a cautious stance, dampening hopes for a deeper cut ||
↓ 2.5% drops to 19%6%
| Reuters notes the Fed’s “no‑risk‑free path” comment and the continuation of a cautious stance, dampening hopes for a deeper cut ||
Fed signals a wait-and-see approach at February meeting, maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty and Middle East tensions;
↓ 2.75% jumps to 63%12%
four policymakers dissent, some favoring cuts
| NPR article describes a divided Fed that cut rates again despite stubborn inflation, but the cut was only 25 bps, keeping the target above 2.5 % ||
↓ 2.5% rises to 25%4%
| NPR article describes a divided Fed that cut rates again despite stubborn inflation, but the cut was only 25 bps, keeping the target above 2.5 % ||
FedWatch tool shows low probability of rate cuts in near-term FOMC meetings
↓ 2.5% drops to 16%12%
Futures markets reflected diminished odds of aggressive cuts, pushing down the
The Fed’s December‑2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) projects the federal funds rate remaining above 3 % through 2026, making a 2.25 % target appear unlikely
↓ 2.25% dips to 15%2%
The Fed’s December‑2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) projects the federal funds rate remaining above 3 % through 2026, making a 2.25 % target appear unlikely
Fed’s February meeting leaves rates unchanged at 3.75 %–4.00 % after mixed data, causing a modest pull‑back in the 3 % outlook
↓ 3.0% jumps to 83%5%
Fed’s February meeting leaves rates unchanged at 3.75 %–4.00 % after mixed data, causing a modest pull‑back in the 3 % outlook
| [Fed Governor Stephen Miran pushes for a larger half‑point cut, raising expectations of a 3 % target] ||
↓ 3.0 % jumps to 83%6%
| [Fed Governor Stephen Miran pushes for a larger half‑point cut, raising expectations of a 3 % target] ||
| U.S. Bank reports the Fed held rates steady at the April meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut, underscoring a likely policy pause ||
↓ 2.5% plunges to 21%16%
| U.S. Bank reports the Fed held rates steady at the April meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut, underscoring a likely policy pause ||
| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |
↓ 2.25% dips to 9%2%
| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting, signaling a pause after multiple cuts in 2025 and emphasizing data dependency for future moves
↓ 1.5% dips to 11%2%
The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts early in 2026 further diminished the probability of reaching 1.5% by year-end.
New York Fed President John Williams warns that a weakening labor market could curb further cuts, tempering expectations of a 1.25 % floor
↓ 1.25% dips to 8%3%
New York Fed President John Williams warns that a weakening labor market could curb further cuts, tempering expectations of a 1.25 % floor
| U.S. Bank notes that the Fed began buying short‑term Treasury bills in December 2025 to keep short‑term rates near the target range |
↓ 3.0 % drops to 81%8%
| U.S. Bank notes that the Fed began buying short‑term Treasury bills in December 2025 to keep short‑term rates near the target range |
Fed officials signal that inflation is still above target and that “no risk‑free path” exists, reinforcing expectations of continued easing and pushing the 2.25 % probability lower
↓ 2.25% drops to 14%6%
Fed officials signal that inflation is still above target and that “no risk‑free path” exists, reinforcing expectations of continued easing and pushing the 2.25 % probability lower
Fed maintains rates at 3.75%–4.00%, emphasizing inflation remains above target and risks remain, with no immediate plans for further cuts
The pause and cautious tone kept the
| [Fed’s January 2026 meeting leaves rates unchanged but signals “cautious optimism” for future cuts] ||
↓ 3.0 % rises to 89%4%
| [Fed’s January 2026 meeting leaves rates unchanged but signals “cautious optimism” for future cuts] ||
Fed holds rates steady at 3.75 %–4.00 % but notes “considerable downside risks” and hints at possible further easing, pushing the 3 % target probability to a peak
↓ 3.0% rises to 90%1%
Fed holds rates steady at 3.75 %–4.00 % but notes “considerable downside risks” and hints at possible further easing, pushing the 3 % target probability to a peak
| Chase recap notes the Fed’s third 2025 cut and the emergence of a new chair‑to‑be (Kevin Warsh), reinforcing expectations of a limited‑cut path ||
↓ 2.5% jumps to 37%14%
| Chase recap notes the Fed’s third 2025 cut and the emergence of a new chair‑to‑be (Kevin Warsh), reinforcing expectations of a limited‑cut path ||
End‑of‑year FOMC meeting confirms the 3.75 %–4.00 % range and projects one more cut in early 2026, reinforcing expectations of a sub‑3 % floor
↓ 3.0% surges to 89%18%
End‑of‑year FOMC meeting confirms the 3.75 %–4.00 % range and projects one more cut in early 2026, reinforcing expectations of a sub‑3 % floor
| CNBC reports that the Fed’s decision left the lower bound at 3.5 %, dampening expectations of a faster slide toward 3 % |
↓ 3.0 % jumps to 73%6%
| CNBC reports that the Fed’s decision left the lower bound at 3.5 %, dampening expectations of a faster slide toward 3 % |
Market reacts to Fed’s “hawkish cut” and dot plot showing only one cut in 2026 and one in 2027
↓ 2.5% surges to 45%25%
Despite the rate cut, the Fed’s projections indicated a slow pace of future cuts, causing volatility and a temporary rebound in the chance of hitting 2.5%.
Reuters reports deep divisions in the December minutes, with several members urging a “wait‑and‑see” approach that raised expectations of further cuts, further diminishing the
↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%
Reuters reports deep divisions in the December minutes, with several members urging a “wait‑and‑see” approach that raised expectations of further cuts, further diminishing the chance of a 2.25 % rate
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions at December meeting with some officials favoring no change, others supporting the 0.25% cut due to economic risks;
↓ 2.75% rises to 57%1%
highlights uncertainty about future rate moves
Fed minutes show deep divisions and finely balanced decision on December rate cut, with some officials open to holding rates steady
↓ 0.75% jumps to 10%5%
Minutes revealed uncertainty and dissent, briefly increasing odds as markets considered the possibility of no further cuts soon.
| Fed minutes reveal a “finely balanced” December cut and a split over whether to keep rates unchanged |
↓ 3.0 % dips to 67%1%
| Fed minutes reveal a “finely balanced” December cut and a split over whether to keep rates unchanged |
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions on timing and extent of further rate cuts, with some officials dissenting against cuts and others favoring caution
↑ 5.25% dips to 2%4%
The release of December meeting minutes highlighted Fed uncertainty and disagreement, dampening market confidence in a rate rise to 5.25%.
Fed officials showed deep divisions at December meeting, minutes reveal finely balanced decision to cut rates
↑ 4.75% dips to 9%3%
Minutes from the December meeting highlighted a nuanced debate with some officials favoring a pause, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic growth, which kept market expectations low for a 4.75% rate.
| Fed minutes show the December cut was “finely balanced” and some members could have voted to keep rates unchanged ||
↓ 2.5% rises to 23%4%
| Fed minutes show the December cut was “finely balanced” and some members could have voted to keep rates unchanged ||
Market reacts to Fed signaling data-dependent future moves and uncertainty about inflation and employment risks
↓ 3.25% drops to 76%14%
Uncertainty about the pace of future cuts caused a pullback in the
New York Fed President John Williams tells CNBC there is “no urgent need” for another cut, signalling a pause after three consecutive reductions
↓ 3.0% rises to 71%1%
New York Fed President John Williams tells CNBC there is “no urgent need” for another cut, signalling a pause after three consecutive reductions
| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |
↓ 2.25% dips to 11%3%
| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |
Fed Governor Christopher Waller states policy remains restrictive but signals room for rate cuts as recent cuts offset hiring risks;
↓ 2.75% jumps to 56%12%
Fed begins buying Treasury bills to manage liquidity
FOMC cuts federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, first cut of 2025, citing cooling economic momentum and inflation still above target
↓ 3.25% rises to 90%2%
The rate cut raised expectations that rates would move closer to 3.25%, boosting the
Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%
↑ 4.75% drops to 7%5%
The Fed's third straight rate cut in December 2025, reducing rates by another 0.25 points, confirmed a dovish stance amid economic headwinds and delayed key data, further reducing expectations for a rate rise to 4.75%.
Federal Reserve delivers third‑straight 25 bps rate cut, lowering target range to 3.75 %–4.00 % amid weakening jobs and stubborn inflation
↓ 3.0% jumps to 72%5%
Federal Reserve delivers third‑straight 25 bps rate cut, lowering target range to 3.75 %–4.00 % amid weakening jobs and stubborn inflation
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25% to 3.5%-3.75% in final 2025 meeting amid economic uncertainty
↓ 2.5% plunges to 19%16%
The third consecutive rate cut was accompanied by cautious Fed language and three dissenting votes, indicating a divided committee and signaling limited further cuts, causing a sharp drop in the probability of rates falling to 2.5%.
Fed Chair Powell warns “no risk-free path” for monetary policy, emphasizing uncertainty
↓ 2.5% rises to 20%1%
Powell’s remarks underscored the complexity of balancing inflation and growth, tempering market optimism about aggressive rate cuts.
| [Fed cuts rates to 3.50‑3.75 % range, three dissenters] ||
↓ 3.0 % surges to 72%21%
| [Fed cuts rates to 3.50‑3.75 % range, three dissenters] ||
| [Dot‑plot shows only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, keeping 3 % in sight] ||
↓ 3.0 % jumps to 73%5%
| [Dot‑plot shows only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, keeping 3 % in sight] ||
U.S. Federal Reserve reduces policy rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, with Powell emphasizing data-dependent future decisions
↓ 3.25% jumps to 88%6%
This official rate cut and Powell’s cautious guidance increased the likelihood of reaching 3.25%, lifting the
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25% to 3.50%-3.75% range, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid slowing job creation and rising unemployment;
↓ 2.75% drops to 44%6%
Powell emphasizes data-dependent future decisions
Fed cuts rates for the third straight time, lowering the target range to 3.5 %– 3.75 % despite a split vote and delayed inflation data from the six‑week government shutdown
↓ 1.25% surges to 31%24%
Fed cuts rates for the third straight time, lowering the target range to 3.5 %– 3.75 % despite a split vote and delayed inflation data from the six‑week government shutdown
Fed’s “dot‑plot” signals only one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027, underscoring limited room to reach 1.25 %
↓ 1.25% plunges to 11%20%
Fed’s “dot‑plot” signals only one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027, underscoring limited room to reach 1.25 %
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25% for the third consecutive time, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%
↓ 0.75% drops to 5%7%
The Fed’s third straight quarter-point cut confirmed a gradual easing path rather than a large 0.75% cut, causing a drop in the market’s probability for the larger cut.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% amid weak labor market and inflation concerns
↑ 5.25% dips to 6%4%
The December 2025 rate cut, despite internal dissent and limited data, reinforced expectations of a lower peak rate, pushing market probability further down.
| Fed delivers a 25 bps cut to 3.5‑3.75 % but three members dissent, suggesting a pause after this cut ||
↓ 2.5% drops to 19%12%
| Fed delivers a 25 bps cut to 3.5‑3.75 % but three members dissent, suggesting a pause after this cut ||
| Fed cuts the benchmark rate by 0.25 % to a 3.50 %‑3.75 % range, the first cut of 2025, amid a sharply divided vote |
↓ 3.0 % dips to 68%4%
| Fed cuts the benchmark rate by 0.25 % to a 3.50 %‑3.75 % range, the first cut of 2025, amid a sharply divided vote |
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to 3.50%-3.75% range, marking the third cut in 2025 but signals a cautious outlook for 2026 with only one more cut expected; dissent among Fed officials highlights uncertainty about further easing
↓ 1.5% plunges to 13%38%
This rate cut was the last in 2025, and the Fed's cautious guidance and divided vote reduced market expectations for a sharp drop to 1.5% or below.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, citing weak job market and delayed economic data from government shutdown;
↑ 4.25% dips to 9%4%
signals only limited further cuts in 2026
Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments emphasize cautious stance and data dependency, with the Fed resuming Treasury purchases and projecting only one more rate cut in 2026,
↑ 4.25% dips to 9%4%
Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments emphasize cautious stance and data dependency, with the Fed resuming Treasury purchases and projecting only one more rate cut in 2026, dampening expectations for rates reaching 4.25% again
Federal Reserve cuts the target range by 25 bp to 3.5‑3.75 % in its final 2025 meeting, marking the third cut of the year
↓ 2.25% plunges to 27%23%
Federal Reserve cuts the target range by 25 bp to 3.5‑3.75 % in its final 2025 meeting, marking the third cut of the year
Fed signals ongoing inflation risks and a “wait-and-see” approach, with one member favoring a 50 bps cut and two dissenting for no change
↓ 3.25% dips to 85%3%
Divergent views within the Fed created uncertainty about the pace of cuts, causing a slight
Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, stops shrinking $6.2 trillion bond holdings
↓ 2.5% rises to 35%2%
The Fed halted balance sheet reduction, shifting to buying short-term Treasury bills to maintain reserves, signaling a more accommodative stance that briefly supported rate cut expectations.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling caution amid inflation above target and a strong labor market
↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%
The Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts and maintain a restrictive stance increased market confidence that rates would not fall quickly to 3.25%, pushing the
Fed Chair Powell and FOMC signal no imminent large rate cuts amid inflation concerns
↓ 0.75% drops to 12%13%
Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach after the November meeting, frustrating markets hoping for bigger cuts, pushing probabilities down sharply.
| Reuters reports many Fed participants opposed the November cut, highlighting deep division and raising doubts about further large cuts ||
↓ 2.5% dips to 31%4%
| Reuters reports many Fed participants opposed the November cut, highlighting deep division and raising doubts about further large cuts ||
Reuters reports many Fed policymakers opposed November rate cut due to inflation concerns, highlighting internal division and uncertainty about future hikes
↑ 4.25% rises to 13%3%
Reuters reports many Fed policymakers opposed November rate cut due to inflation concerns, highlighting internal division and uncertainty about future hikes
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates despite concerns over inflation and public trust risks; divided committee signals uncertainty about future rate direction
↑ 5.25% plunges to 11%39%
The Fed cut rates in November 2025 amid caution about inflation risks and public trust, with many policymakers favoring cuts but some preferring to hold steady, triggering a sharp drop in market odds for a 5.25% rate.
Divided Fed policymakers opposed a December rate cut, minutes show dissent over inflation risks
↓ 1.25% plunges to 7%43%
Divided Fed policymakers opposed a December rate cut, minutes show dissent over inflation risks
Many Fed policymakers opposed December rate cut as FOMC voted 10-2 to lower rates to 3.75%-4.00% range
↑ 4.75% plunges to 18%32%
The FOMC cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in November 2025, but the vote was split with two dissents, indicating uncertainty and division about future policy, which led to a sharp drop in the market's probability for the 4.75% outcome.
FOMC minutes reveal divided Fed with most officials opposing a December rate cut, signaling a cautious approach to monetary easing
↓ 0.75% plunges to 25%25%
The minutes showed a 10-2 vote for a quarter-point cut with dissenters favoring both tighter and looser policy, reducing market expectations for a large cut soon.
Federal Reserve signals cautious approach to rate cuts amid mixed economic data and delayed inflation reports due to government shutdown
↓ 2.5% plunges to 33%18%
The Fed faced delayed November inflation and jobs data, forcing reliance on older data showing inflation above target and stable unemployment, raising uncertainty about aggressive rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals case for continuing rate cuts amid slowing GDP growth and soft job creation, setting the stage for lower rates ahead
↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals case for continuing rate cuts amid slowing GDP growth and soft job creation, setting the stage for lower rates ahead
Fed officials debate rate cuts amid mixed economic signals and government data delays; some policymakers advocate for continued cuts while others resist
↑ 5.25% dips to 10%1%
Ahead of the November cut, Fed members showed division on rate policy due to weak job creation and delayed data from the government shutdown, contributing to market volatility.
| NEC Director Kevin Hassett says he would vote for a half‑point Fed rate cut if he were at the meeting |
↓ 3.0 % jumps to 61%10%
| NEC Director Kevin Hassett says he would vote for a half‑point Fed rate cut if he were at the meeting |
| Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.75‑4.00 % range, signaling the start of a rate‑cut cycle ||
↓ 2.5% plunges to 35%16%
| Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.75‑4.00 % range, signaling the start of a rate‑cut cycle ||
Fed cuts benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.00 %–4.25 % – first cut of 2025, citing cooling labor market and weaker factory activity
↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%
Fed cuts benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.00 %–4.25 % – first cut of 2025, citing cooling labor market and weaker factory activity
| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |
↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%
| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |
| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |
↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%
| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |
| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |
↓ 2.25% dips to 27%3%
| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |
| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |
↓ 2.25% dips to 30%4%
| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |
| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |
↓ 2.25% plunges to 34%16%
| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |
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