The March 31 deadline for an official Avatar 4 greenlight has passed without any announcement from Disney or 20th Century Studios, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 99.9% "No," as confirmed reports require explicit studio approval beyond the tentative December 2029 release slot. James Cameron's recent Saturn Awards comments—that the project is "very likely" but awaits full box office dissection of Avatar: Fire and Ash's performance—underscore ongoing hesitation amid high production costs and sequel fatigue risks. Fire and Ash's solid but not blockbuster returns have cooled momentum. Realistic upsets include a belated retroactive confirmation or internal documents surfacing, though Polymarket's resolution criteria demand public verification, rendering such shifts improbable post-deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAvatar 4 greenlit d'ici le 31 mars ?
Avatar 4 greenlit d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$22,444 Vol.
$22,444 Vol.
31 mars 2026
Oui
$22,444 Vol.
$22,444 Vol.
31 mars 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.The March 31 deadline for an official Avatar 4 greenlight has passed without any announcement from Disney or 20th Century Studios, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 99.9% "No," as confirmed reports require explicit studio approval beyond the tentative December 2029 release slot. James Cameron's recent Saturn Awards comments—that the project is "very likely" but awaits full box office dissection of Avatar: Fire and Ash's performance—underscore ongoing hesitation amid high production costs and sequel fatigue risks. Fire and Ash's solid but not blockbuster returns have cooled momentum. Realistic upsets include a belated retroactive confirmation or internal documents surfacing, though Polymarket's resolution criteria demand public verification, rendering such shifts improbable post-deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$22,444Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.The March 31 deadline for an official Avatar 4 greenlight has passed without any announcement from Disney or 20th Century Studios, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 99.9% "No," as confirmed reports require explicit studio approval beyond the tentative December 2029 release slot. James Cameron's recent Saturn Awards comments—that the project is "very likely" but awaits full box office dissection of Avatar: Fire and Ash's performance—underscore ongoing hesitation amid high production costs and sequel fatigue risks. Fire and Ash's solid but not blockbuster returns have cooled momentum. Realistic upsets include a belated retroactive confirmation or internal documents surfacing, though Polymarket's resolution criteria demand public verification, rendering such shifts improbable post-deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$22,444Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The March 31 deadline for an official Avatar 4 greenlight has passed without any announcement from Disney or 20th Century Studios, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 99.9% "No," as confirmed reports require explicit studio approval beyond the tentative December 2029 release slot. James Cameron's recent Saturn Awards comments—that the project is "very likely" but awaits full box office dissection of Avatar: Fire and Ash's performance—underscore ongoing hesitation amid high production costs and sequel fatigue risks. Fire and Ash's solid but not blockbuster returns have cooled momentum. Realistic upsets include a belated retroactive confirmation or internal documents surfacing, though Polymarket's resolution criteria demand public verification, rendering such shifts improbable post-deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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