Recent polls show Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a virtual tie, with Maskina reporting 51.3% Yes versus 48.7% No and Gallup at 46-46 among decided voters. Fisheries control remains the dominant cleavage, alongside currency stability, living costs, and sovereignty concerns, keeping the contest polarized ahead of the vote on negotiations rather than membership itself. High undecided shares and turnout sensitivity sustain the deadlock, while the non-binding nature of the ballot and prospect of later talks further complicate margin forecasts. These factors explain trader emphasis on "Other" alongside clustered low-margin outcomes, as small shifts in participation or last-minute messaging could determine the final spread without altering the underlying closeness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNon 9–12 % 45%
Oui 3–6 % 36%
Oui <3 % 28%
Non 12–15 % 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
4%
Oui 12–15 %
9%
Oui 9–12 %
1%
Oui 6–9 %
20%
Oui 3–6 %
23%
Oui <3 %
28%
Non <3 %
43%
Non 3–6 %
24%
Non 6–9 %
24%
Non 9–12 %
45%
Non 12–15 %
21%
Non 15 %+
18%
Non 9–12 % 45%
Oui 3–6 % 36%
Oui <3 % 28%
Non 12–15 % 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
$108 Vol.
4%
Oui 12–15 %
$87 Vol.
9%
Oui 9–12 %
$21 Vol.
1%
Oui 6–9 %
$11 Vol.
20%
Oui 3–6 %
$44 Vol.
23%
Oui <3 %
$44 Vol.
28%
Non <3 %
$43 Vol.
43%
Non 3–6 %
$24 Vol.
24%
Non 6–9 %
$24 Vol.
24%
Non 9–12 %
$22 Vol.
45%
Non 12–15 %
$86 Vol.
21%
Non 15 %+
$16 Vol.
18%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a virtual tie, with Maskina reporting 51.3% Yes versus 48.7% No and Gallup at 46-46 among decided voters. Fisheries control remains the dominant cleavage, alongside currency stability, living costs, and sovereignty concerns, keeping the contest polarized ahead of the vote on negotiations rather than membership itself. High undecided shares and turnout sensitivity sustain the deadlock, while the non-binding nature of the ballot and prospect of later talks further complicate margin forecasts. These factors explain trader emphasis on "Other" alongside clustered low-margin outcomes, as small shifts in participation or last-minute messaging could determine the final spread without altering the underlying closeness.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$531Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a virtual tie, with Maskina reporting 51.3% Yes versus 48.7% No and Gallup at 46-46 among decided voters. Fisheries control remains the dominant cleavage, alongside currency stability, living costs, and sovereignty concerns, keeping the contest polarized ahead of the vote on negotiations rather than membership itself. High undecided shares and turnout sensitivity sustain the deadlock, while the non-binding nature of the ballot and prospect of later talks further complicate margin forecasts. These factors explain trader emphasis on "Other" alongside clustered low-margin outcomes, as small shifts in participation or last-minute messaging could determine the final spread without altering the underlying closeness.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$531Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a virtual tie, with Maskina reporting 51.3% Yes versus 48.7% No and Gallup at 46-46 among decided voters. Fisheries control remains the dominant cleavage, alongside currency stability, living costs, and sovereignty concerns, keeping the contest polarized ahead of the vote on negotiations rather than membership itself. High undecided shares and turnout sensitivity sustain the deadlock, while the non-binding nature of the ballot and prospect of later talks further complicate margin forecasts. These factors explain trader emphasis on "Other" alongside clustered low-margin outcomes, as small shifts in participation or last-minute messaging could determine the final spread without altering the underlying closeness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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