Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no perfect NCAA March Madness bracket at 98.2% implied probability, driven by the tournament's early upsets that have already eliminated all known perfect entries in major contests like ESPN and Yahoo pools. After the first two rounds, chalk-heavy outcomes are rare, with double-digit seeds like No. 11 NC State and No. 12 Drake advancing, multiplying the mathematical improbability—originally about 1 in 9 quintillion for a random bracket, now effectively zero for tracked submissions. Historically, no public perfect bracket has ever survived past the Sweet 16 in 38 tournaments. A realistic upset-proof path remains theoretically possible if top seeds dominate entirely, but traders see that as negligible given ongoing volatility and human prediction errors.