Marine Le Pen leads the 2027 French presidential race in trader consensus at 34.8 percent, reflecting consistent first-round polling leads of 32–35 percent for the National Rally candidate following her July 2026 appeal ruling that reduced her ineligibility period. Édouard Philippe trails at 28 percent as the strongest centrist option, though fragmentation across multiple declared or potential candidates—including Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and left-wing figures such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 11.5 percent—keeps vote shares dispersed. Recent September 2026 surveys show limited movement, with debates over immigration policy, Ukraine support, and center-left primaries in October sustaining uncertainty ahead of the April first round. Runoff transfers and potential consolidation among moderates remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the May second round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDavid Lisnard faces challenge balancing presidential and AMF leadership campaigns
David Lisnard jumps to 7%5%
David Lisnard, while running for president, also sought re-election as president of the Association of Mayors of France, creating a complex dual campaign that limited his national visibility and market support.









































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