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icon for Services Down Parlay
Tech·AWS

Services Down Parlay

icon for Services Down Parlay
Tech·AWS

Services Down Parlay

Oui

2% chance
Polymarket

$14,115 Vol.

Oui

2% chance
Polymarket

$14,115 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$14,115
Date de fin
31 mars 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$14,115
Date de fin
31 mars 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Services Down Parlay » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Pari sur les services en panne » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 2¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 2% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Services Down Parlay » a généré $14.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Services Down Parlay », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Services Down Parlay » est « Pari sur les services en panne » à seulement 2%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Services Down Parlay » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.