Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
Oui
$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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