The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This leaves only incoming payroll taxes to cover about 78% of scheduled benefits initially. The combined OASDI funds are still expected to last until 2034. Bipartisan proposals, including Senate and House bills for independent commissions to recommend solvency fixes, have emerged but face political hurdles. Without reforms raising taxes or adjusting benefits, automatic cuts loom, keeping trader focus on legislative timelines before reserves run dry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSécurité sociale insolvable par... ?
Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ?
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2028
31 décembre 2027
11%
31 décembre 2028
17%
$394 Vol.
31 décembre 2027
$349 Vol.
11%
31 décembre 2028
$45 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This leaves only incoming payroll taxes to cover about 78% of scheduled benefits initially. The combined OASDI funds are still expected to last until 2034. Bipartisan proposals, including Senate and House bills for independent commissions to recommend solvency fixes, have emerged but face political hurdles. Without reforms raising taxes or adjusting benefits, automatic cuts loom, keeping trader focus on legislative timelines before reserves run dry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$394Date de fin
1 janv. 2029Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This leaves only incoming payroll taxes to cover about 78% of scheduled benefits initially. The combined OASDI funds are still expected to last until 2034. Bipartisan proposals, including Senate and House bills for independent commissions to recommend solvency fixes, have emerged but face political hurdles. Without reforms raising taxes or adjusting benefits, automatic cuts loom, keeping trader focus on legislative timelines before reserves run dry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394Date de fin
1 janv. 2029Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This leaves only incoming payroll taxes to cover about 78% of scheduled benefits initially. The combined OASDI funds are still expected to last until 2034. Bipartisan proposals, including Senate and House bills for independent commissions to recommend solvency fixes, have emerged but face political hurdles. Without reforms raising taxes or adjusting benefits, automatic cuts loom, keeping trader focus on legislative timelines before reserves run dry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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