Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour>8 000 $ 29%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $ 19%
7 000–7 500 $ 17%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 10%
$44,814 Vol.
$44,814 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<6 000 $
8%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $
7%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $
10%
7 000–7 500 $
21%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $
29%
>8 000 $
36%
>8 000 $ 29%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $ 19%
7 000–7 500 $ 17%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 10%
$44,814 Vol.
$44,814 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<6 000 $
$23,712 Vol.
8%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $
$2,380 Vol.
7%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $
$4,657 Vol.
10%
7 000–7 500 $
$2,769 Vol.
21%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $
$4,333 Vol.
29%
>8 000 $
$6,963 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$44,814Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$44,814Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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