Starship's ongoing test campaign, with Flight 13 completing a suborbital profile and Starlink V3 deployment in July 2026 and Flight 14 targeting the first full orbital attempt in September, continues to drive trader sentiment on docking timelines. Achieving rendezvous and docking between two vehicles demands demonstrated orbital insertion, precise proximity operations, and in-space refueling—capabilities still pending after repeated suborbital flights and engine reliability iterations on the V3 configuration. Regulatory approvals, booster catch milestones, and rapid iteration cadence will determine whether SpaceX can accelerate toward these complex maneuvers ahead of 2028 resolution windows, while historical vehicle development delays underscore the uncertainty traders price into current market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$59,702 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
12%
31 décembre 2027
60%
$59,702 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$38,824 Vol.
12%
31 décembre 2027
$20,878 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Starship's ongoing test campaign, with Flight 13 completing a suborbital profile and Starlink V3 deployment in July 2026 and Flight 14 targeting the first full orbital attempt in September, continues to drive trader sentiment on docking timelines. Achieving rendezvous and docking between two vehicles demands demonstrated orbital insertion, precise proximity operations, and in-space refueling—capabilities still pending after repeated suborbital flights and engine reliability iterations on the V3 configuration. Regulatory approvals, booster catch milestones, and rapid iteration cadence will determine whether SpaceX can accelerate toward these complex maneuvers ahead of 2028 resolution windows, while historical vehicle development delays underscore the uncertainty traders price into current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$59,702Date de fin
31 déc. 2028Marché ouvert
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Starship's ongoing test campaign, with Flight 13 completing a suborbital profile and Starlink V3 deployment in July 2026 and Flight 14 targeting the first full orbital attempt in September, continues to drive trader sentiment on docking timelines. Achieving rendezvous and docking between two vehicles demands demonstrated orbital insertion, precise proximity operations, and in-space refueling—capabilities still pending after repeated suborbital flights and engine reliability iterations on the V3 configuration. Regulatory approvals, booster catch milestones, and rapid iteration cadence will determine whether SpaceX can accelerate toward these complex maneuvers ahead of 2028 resolution windows, while historical vehicle development delays underscore the uncertainty traders price into current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$59,702Date de fin
31 déc. 2028Marché ouvert
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Starship's ongoing test campaign, with Flight 13 completing a suborbital profile and Starlink V3 deployment in July 2026 and Flight 14 targeting the first full orbital attempt in September, continues to drive trader sentiment on docking timelines. Achieving rendezvous and docking between two vehicles demands demonstrated orbital insertion, precise proximity operations, and in-space refueling—capabilities still pending after repeated suborbital flights and engine reliability iterations on the V3 configuration. Regulatory approvals, booster catch milestones, and rapid iteration cadence will determine whether SpaceX can accelerate toward these complex maneuvers ahead of 2028 resolution windows, while historical vehicle development delays underscore the uncertainty traders price into current market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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