Everett Jackson holds a commanding lead in the Texas 30th congressional district Republican primary, reflecting his plurality finish in the March 3 primary where he received 38 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for Sholdon Daniels. This advanced the pair to the May 26 runoff, with the other candidates eliminated. Traders see Jackson's early momentum, broader name recognition among Republican voters, and the district's low overall GOP turnout as key factors solidifying his position ahead of the head-to-head contest. A narrow Daniels upset remains possible if the challenger consolidates remaining support or benefits from higher runoff participation, though such shifts would require significant late developments in the final days before voting concludes.