Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with notable arrests including Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”), a senior CJNG commander, in late April and Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios (“Gabito”), a regional Los Chapitos leader, in June. These followed the February killing of CJNG founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a military raid, which triggered retaliatory violence but also prompted further targeting of successors and financial networks. U.S. indictments, extraditions such as that of Sinaloa figure Roberto Najera Gutierrez, and multimillion-dollar rewards for fugitives like the Arzate-García brothers continue to support bilateral enforcement efforts. Ongoing military and naval actions, along with any additional high-value captures before year-end, represent the primary variables that could determine outcomes for specific individuals in this market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuels chefs de cartel seront arrêtés en 2026 ?
Quels chefs de cartel seront arrêtés en 2026 ?
$143,093 Vol.
28 févr. 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
61%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
51%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
36%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
49%
$143,093 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Vol.
61%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Vol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
51%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Vol.
36%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Vol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Vol.
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with notable arrests including Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”), a senior CJNG commander, in late April and Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios (“Gabito”), a regional Los Chapitos leader, in June. These followed the February killing of CJNG founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a military raid, which triggered retaliatory violence but also prompted further targeting of successors and financial networks. U.S. indictments, extraditions such as that of Sinaloa figure Roberto Najera Gutierrez, and multimillion-dollar rewards for fugitives like the Arzate-García brothers continue to support bilateral enforcement efforts. Ongoing military and naval actions, along with any additional high-value captures before year-end, represent the primary variables that could determine outcomes for specific individuals in this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$143,093Date de fin
28 févr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with notable arrests including Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”), a senior CJNG commander, in late April and Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios (“Gabito”), a regional Los Chapitos leader, in June. These followed the February killing of CJNG founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a military raid, which triggered retaliatory violence but also prompted further targeting of successors and financial networks. U.S. indictments, extraditions such as that of Sinaloa figure Roberto Najera Gutierrez, and multimillion-dollar rewards for fugitives like the Arzate-García brothers continue to support bilateral enforcement efforts. Ongoing military and naval actions, along with any additional high-value captures before year-end, represent the primary variables that could determine outcomes for specific individuals in this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,093Date de fin
28 févr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican authorities have intensified operations against major drug trafficking organizations in 2026, with notable arrests including Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”), a senior CJNG commander, in late April and Gabriel Nicolás Martínez Larios (“Gabito”), a regional Los Chapitos leader, in June. These followed the February killing of CJNG founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) during a military raid, which triggered retaliatory violence but also prompted further targeting of successors and financial networks. U.S. indictments, extraditions such as that of Sinaloa figure Roberto Najera Gutierrez, and multimillion-dollar rewards for fugitives like the Arzate-García brothers continue to support bilateral enforcement efforts. Ongoing military and naval actions, along with any additional high-value captures before year-end, represent the primary variables that could determine outcomes for specific individuals in this market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes