US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without agreement after a fragile two-week ceasefire paused hostilities, prompting urgent diplomatic efforts for a second round amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in its first full day. Traders reflect this momentum in high implied probabilities for key Trump administration figures: special envoy Steve Witkoff leads at 82% to hold a physical diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, based on their participation in the prior session alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Trump signaled potential resumption within days via Pakistani mediation, with the White House optimistic; unresolved sticking points include Hormuz shipping and Lebanon ceasefire extensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
$116,761 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Donald Trump
5%
J.D. Vance
76%
Marco Rubio
9%
Jared Kushner
80%
Steve Witkoff
82%
$116,761 Vol.
Donald Trump
$97,005 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$7,819 Vol.
76%
Marco Rubio
$5,431 Vol.
9%
Jared Kushner
$2,490 Vol.
80%
Steve Witkoff
$4,016 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without agreement after a fragile two-week ceasefire paused hostilities, prompting urgent diplomatic efforts for a second round amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in its first full day. Traders reflect this momentum in high implied probabilities for key Trump administration figures: special envoy Steve Witkoff leads at 82% to hold a physical diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, based on their participation in the prior session alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Trump signaled potential resumption within days via Pakistani mediation, with the White House optimistic; unresolved sticking points include Hormuz shipping and Lebanon ceasefire extensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$116,761Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without agreement after a fragile two-week ceasefire paused hostilities, prompting urgent diplomatic efforts for a second round amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in its first full day. Traders reflect this momentum in high implied probabilities for key Trump administration figures: special envoy Steve Witkoff leads at 82% to hold a physical diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, based on their participation in the prior session alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Trump signaled potential resumption within days via Pakistani mediation, with the White House optimistic; unresolved sticking points include Hormuz shipping and Lebanon ceasefire extensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$116,761Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without agreement after a fragile two-week ceasefire paused hostilities, prompting urgent diplomatic efforts for a second round amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in its first full day. Traders reflect this momentum in high implied probabilities for key Trump administration figures: special envoy Steve Witkoff leads at 82% to hold a physical diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives by April 30, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner at 75% each, based on their participation in the prior session alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Trump signaled potential resumption within days via Pakistani mediation, with the White House optimistic; unresolved sticking points include Hormuz shipping and Lebanon ceasefire extensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes