Roger Federer’s 2022 retirement, prompted by chronic right-knee problems requiring multiple surgeries, continues to anchor trader expectations that he will not compete in the 2026 Wimbledon Championships. At age 44, the eight-time champion has remained outside the ATP rankings and official draw pathways, channeling his efforts into business, philanthropy, and non-competitive appearances rather than mounting a return. Recent developments, including Hall of Fame activities and limited grass-court exhibitions, show no movement toward qualifying or main-draw entry. The resulting 98.2% implied probability for “No” reflects the market’s assessment of these sustained physical and competitive barriers. An improbable reversal would require a dramatic medical turnaround and an exceptional late-entry scenario outside standard eligibility rules.