Roger Federer's retirement from professional tennis after the 2022 Laver Cup underpins the near-certain trader consensus against his participation in any official 2026 Wimbledon match. At age 44, the eight-time champion has not competed in a sanctioned event since his 2021 Wimbledon quarterfinal exit, limiting recent activity to exhibitions and practice sessions such as those at the Australian Open. No team announcements, entry lists, or credible reports signal a competitive return on grass, where his historical dominance once defined the tournament. While a late unretirement or special invitation remains theoretically possible, the combination of elapsed time, physical demands, and absence of preparatory indicators sustains overwhelming market pricing on the negative outcome.