**Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy), an American-born U.S. citizen and controversial streamer, faces near-zero realistic risk of deportation in 2026, driving the 96% market-implied probability on “No.”** As a birthright citizen, he cannot be removed under standard U.S. immigration law, which applies deportation primarily to non-citizens. Recent catalysts include his May 2026 expulsion from Australia over hate-speech concerns and a resulting lifetime visa ban, which fueled online memes and a brief July–August feud with Elon Musk that amplified “deport Sneako” jokes on X. These events heightened visibility but did not alter his legal status. Traders view the outcome as settled by citizenship precedent, with any resolution hinging on verifiable removal proceedings that have no credible basis here. The few conceivable upset paths—such as unprecedented denaturalization challenges or fringe legal interpretations—remain highly improbable within the remaining months of 2026 and lack supporting industry or legal developments. Market consensus reflects this structural barrier rather than sentiment alone.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSneako sera-t-il expulsé en 2026 ?
Sneako sera-t-il expulsé en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nico Kenn De Balinthazy (Sneako) is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.**Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy), an American-born U.S. citizen and controversial streamer, faces near-zero realistic risk of deportation in 2026, driving the 96% market-implied probability on “No.”** As a birthright citizen, he cannot be removed under standard U.S. immigration law, which applies deportation primarily to non-citizens. Recent catalysts include his May 2026 expulsion from Australia over hate-speech concerns and a resulting lifetime visa ban, which fueled online memes and a brief July–August feud with Elon Musk that amplified “deport Sneako” jokes on X. These events heightened visibility but did not alter his legal status. Traders view the outcome as settled by citizenship precedent, with any resolution hinging on verifiable removal proceedings that have no credible basis here.
The few conceivable upset paths—such as unprecedented denaturalization challenges or fringe legal interpretations—remain highly improbable within the remaining months of 2026 and lack supporting industry or legal developments. Market consensus reflects this structural barrier rather than sentiment alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nico Kenn De Balinthazy (Sneako) is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$548Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nico Kenn De Balinthazy (Sneako) is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.**Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy), an American-born U.S. citizen and controversial streamer, faces near-zero realistic risk of deportation in 2026, driving the 96% market-implied probability on “No.”** As a birthright citizen, he cannot be removed under standard U.S. immigration law, which applies deportation primarily to non-citizens. Recent catalysts include his May 2026 expulsion from Australia over hate-speech concerns and a resulting lifetime visa ban, which fueled online memes and a brief July–August feud with Elon Musk that amplified “deport Sneako” jokes on X. These events heightened visibility but did not alter his legal status. Traders view the outcome as settled by citizenship precedent, with any resolution hinging on verifiable removal proceedings that have no credible basis here.
The few conceivable upset paths—such as unprecedented denaturalization challenges or fringe legal interpretations—remain highly improbable within the remaining months of 2026 and lack supporting industry or legal developments. Market consensus reflects this structural barrier rather than sentiment alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nico Kenn De Balinthazy (Sneako) is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Sneako from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Volume
$548Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy), an American-born U.S. citizen and controversial streamer, faces near-zero realistic risk of deportation in 2026, driving the 96% market-implied probability on “No.”** As a birthright citizen, he cannot be removed under standard U.S. immigration law, which applies deportation primarily to non-citizens. Recent catalysts include his May 2026 expulsion from Australia over hate-speech concerns and a resulting lifetime visa ban, which fueled online memes and a brief July–August feud with Elon Musk that amplified “deport Sneako” jokes on X. These events heightened visibility but did not alter his legal status. Traders view the outcome as settled by citizenship precedent, with any resolution hinging on verifiable removal proceedings that have no credible basis here. The few conceivable upset paths—such as unprecedented denaturalization challenges or fringe legal interpretations—remain highly improbable within the remaining months of 2026 and lack supporting industry or legal developments. Market consensus reflects this structural barrier rather than sentiment alone.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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