Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at or below 2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the escalating Middle East conflict highlighted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, released April 14, which cut its reference forecast to 3.1% from January's 3.3% amid assumed 19% higher energy prices and disruptions. This positions ≤2.9% ahead of 3.1% (19%) and 3.0% (18%), as skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates OECD's 2.9% projection and severe IMF scenarios forecasting 2.5% or 2% growth with prolonged energy shocks and inflation spikes to 5.4–6%. Advanced economies face 1.8% expansion versus 3.9% in emerging markets, with key swing factors including conflict duration, oil prices above $90/barrel, and Q2 global PMI data; monitor May IMF updates for revisions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 विश्व जीडीपी वृद्धि
2026 विश्व जीडीपी वृद्धि
≤2.9% 43%
3.0% 17.8%
3.7%+ 10.8%
3.1% 6.8%
$15,667 वॉल्यूम
$15,667 वॉल्यूम
15 जन, 2027
≤2.9%
40%
3.0%
18%
3.1%
19%
3.2%
5%
3.3%
2%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.6%
2%
3.7%+
11%
≤2.9% 43%
3.0% 17.8%
3.7%+ 10.8%
3.1% 6.8%
$15,667 वॉल्यूम
$15,667 वॉल्यूम
15 जन, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,736 वॉल्यूम
40%
3.0%
$405 वॉल्यूम
18%
3.1%
$368 वॉल्यूम
19%
3.2%
$1,553 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.3%
$1,884 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.4%
$3,507 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.5%
$2,991 वॉल्यूम
4%
3.6%
$452 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.7%+
$771 वॉल्यूम
11%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at or below 2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the escalating Middle East conflict highlighted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, released April 14, which cut its reference forecast to 3.1% from January's 3.3% amid assumed 19% higher energy prices and disruptions. This positions ≤2.9% ahead of 3.1% (19%) and 3.0% (18%), as skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates OECD's 2.9% projection and severe IMF scenarios forecasting 2.5% or 2% growth with prolonged energy shocks and inflation spikes to 5.4–6%. Advanced economies face 1.8% expansion versus 3.9% in emerging markets, with key swing factors including conflict duration, oil prices above $90/barrel, and Q2 global PMI data; monitor May IMF updates for revisions.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$15,667समाप्ति तिथि
15 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at or below 2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the escalating Middle East conflict highlighted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, released April 14, which cut its reference forecast to 3.1% from January's 3.3% amid assumed 19% higher energy prices and disruptions. This positions ≤2.9% ahead of 3.1% (19%) and 3.0% (18%), as skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates OECD's 2.9% projection and severe IMF scenarios forecasting 2.5% or 2% growth with prolonged energy shocks and inflation spikes to 5.4–6%. Advanced economies face 1.8% expansion versus 3.9% in emerging markets, with key swing factors including conflict duration, oil prices above $90/barrel, and Q2 global PMI data; monitor May IMF updates for revisions.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
वॉल्यूम
$15,667समाप्ति तिथि
15 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at or below 2.9%, reflecting downside risks from the escalating Middle East conflict highlighted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, released April 14, which cut its reference forecast to 3.1% from January's 3.3% amid assumed 19% higher energy prices and disruptions. This positions ≤2.9% ahead of 3.1% (19%) and 3.0% (18%), as skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates OECD's 2.9% projection and severe IMF scenarios forecasting 2.5% or 2% growth with prolonged energy shocks and inflation spikes to 5.4–6%. Advanced economies face 1.8% expansion versus 3.9% in emerging markets, with key swing factors including conflict duration, oil prices above $90/barrel, and Q2 global PMI data; monitor May IMF updates for revisions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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