Geopolitical tensions with Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, remain the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure risk, though shipping traffic has stayed above closure thresholds amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day after earlier attacks cut flows, while major carriers continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes that add thousands of nautical miles and billions in annual freight costs. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term escalation, with Houthi rhetoric outpacing operational activity since late 2025. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in Iran-U.S. negotiations or renewed attacks on commercial vessels that could spike tanker rates, Brent crude volatility, and global supply-chain inflation measures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाबाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य प्रभावी रूप से बंद हो गया...?
बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य प्रभावी रूप से बंद हो गया...?
$3,689,586 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
30 जून
5%
30 सितंबर
17%
$3,689,586 वॉल्यूम
30 जून
$294,945 वॉल्यूम
5%
30 सितंबर
$73,477 वॉल्यूम
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions with Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, remain the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure risk, though shipping traffic has stayed above closure thresholds amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day after earlier attacks cut flows, while major carriers continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes that add thousands of nautical miles and billions in annual freight costs. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term escalation, with Houthi rhetoric outpacing operational activity since late 2025. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in Iran-U.S. negotiations or renewed attacks on commercial vessels that could spike tanker rates, Brent crude volatility, and global supply-chain inflation measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,689,586समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions with Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, remain the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure risk, though shipping traffic has stayed above closure thresholds amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day after earlier attacks cut flows, while major carriers continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes that add thousands of nautical miles and billions in annual freight costs. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term escalation, with Houthi rhetoric outpacing operational activity since late 2025. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in Iran-U.S. negotiations or renewed attacks on commercial vessels that could spike tanker rates, Brent crude volatility, and global supply-chain inflation measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$3,689,586समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions with Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, remain the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure risk, though shipping traffic has stayed above closure thresholds amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day after earlier attacks cut flows, while major carriers continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes that add thousands of nautical miles and billions in annual freight costs. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term escalation, with Houthi rhetoric outpacing operational activity since late 2025. Key upcoming catalysts include any shift in Iran-U.S. negotiations or renewed attacks on commercial vessels that could spike tanker rates, Brent crude volatility, and global supply-chain inflation measures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न