Amid the U.S. naval blockade effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz since early April 2026, Iran-backed Houthis have escalated threats to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical chokepoint handling 12% of global seaborne trade and rerouted Persian Gulf oil flows—driving trader caution. Brent crude spiked to $128 per barrel on April 2 before retreating toward $106 amid partial supply relief, while shipping firms face soaring insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting delays adding 10-14 days to voyages. Polymarket's skin-in-the-game consensus prices low implied probabilities for near-term closure (top outcome ~20% by May 31), tempered by U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks via Pakistan and Saudi pressure to lift the Hormuz blockade; monitor Houthi strike announcements or naval interceptions for sentiment shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाबाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य प्रभावी रूप से बंद हो गया...?
बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य प्रभावी रूप से बंद हो गया...?
$1,260,223 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
30 अप्रैल
9%
31 मई
16%
$1,260,223 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल
$928,045 वॉल्यूम
9%
31 मई
$1,852 वॉल्यूम
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Amid the U.S. naval blockade effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz since early April 2026, Iran-backed Houthis have escalated threats to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical chokepoint handling 12% of global seaborne trade and rerouted Persian Gulf oil flows—driving trader caution. Brent crude spiked to $128 per barrel on April 2 before retreating toward $106 amid partial supply relief, while shipping firms face soaring insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting delays adding 10-14 days to voyages. Polymarket's skin-in-the-game consensus prices low implied probabilities for near-term closure (top outcome ~20% by May 31), tempered by U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks via Pakistan and Saudi pressure to lift the Hormuz blockade; monitor Houthi strike announcements or naval interceptions for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,260,223समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Amid the U.S. naval blockade effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz since early April 2026, Iran-backed Houthis have escalated threats to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical chokepoint handling 12% of global seaborne trade and rerouted Persian Gulf oil flows—driving trader caution. Brent crude spiked to $128 per barrel on April 2 before retreating toward $106 amid partial supply relief, while shipping firms face soaring insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting delays adding 10-14 days to voyages. Polymarket's skin-in-the-game consensus prices low implied probabilities for near-term closure (top outcome ~20% by May 31), tempered by U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks via Pakistan and Saudi pressure to lift the Hormuz blockade; monitor Houthi strike announcements or naval interceptions for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$1,260,223समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the U.S. naval blockade effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz since early April 2026, Iran-backed Houthis have escalated threats to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical chokepoint handling 12% of global seaborne trade and rerouted Persian Gulf oil flows—driving trader caution. Brent crude spiked to $128 per barrel on April 2 before retreating toward $106 amid partial supply relief, while shipping firms face soaring insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting delays adding 10-14 days to voyages. Polymarket's skin-in-the-game consensus prices low implied probabilities for near-term closure (top outcome ~20% by May 31), tempered by U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks via Pakistan and Saudi pressure to lift the Hormuz blockade; monitor Houthi strike announcements or naval interceptions for sentiment shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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