Recent national polling gains for the AfD, including a July Insa survey placing the party at 19 percent and ahead in Berlin for the first time, have lifted expectations for its September 20 state election performance, yet Berlin’s urban and historically progressive electorate continues to cap support relative to eastern states. Fragmented competition among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW, combined with the federal CDU-SPD government’s challenges under Chancellor Merz, has produced volatile local trends that keep projected vote shares clustered between roughly 14 and 20 percent. Traders price the narrow gaps as reflecting uncertainty over final-month campaign dynamics, turnout among core demographics, and any late shifts in immigration or economic sentiment that could either consolidate AfD backing above 20 percent or reinforce moderation below 14 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया14-17% 32%
17-20% 27%
20%+ 16%
<14% 12%
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
<14%
12%
14-17%
32%
17-20%
28%
20%+
16%
14-17% 32%
17-20% 27%
20%+ 16%
<14% 12%
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
<14%
$64 वॉल्यूम
12%
14-17%
$21 वॉल्यूम
32%
17-20%
$293 वॉल्यूम
28%
20%+
$49 वॉल्यूम
16%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent national polling gains for the AfD, including a July Insa survey placing the party at 19 percent and ahead in Berlin for the first time, have lifted expectations for its September 20 state election performance, yet Berlin’s urban and historically progressive electorate continues to cap support relative to eastern states. Fragmented competition among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW, combined with the federal CDU-SPD government’s challenges under Chancellor Merz, has produced volatile local trends that keep projected vote shares clustered between roughly 14 and 20 percent. Traders price the narrow gaps as reflecting uncertainty over final-month campaign dynamics, turnout among core demographics, and any late shifts in immigration or economic sentiment that could either consolidate AfD backing above 20 percent or reinforce moderation below 14 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$427समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent national polling gains for the AfD, including a July Insa survey placing the party at 19 percent and ahead in Berlin for the first time, have lifted expectations for its September 20 state election performance, yet Berlin’s urban and historically progressive electorate continues to cap support relative to eastern states. Fragmented competition among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW, combined with the federal CDU-SPD government’s challenges under Chancellor Merz, has produced volatile local trends that keep projected vote shares clustered between roughly 14 and 20 percent. Traders price the narrow gaps as reflecting uncertainty over final-month campaign dynamics, turnout among core demographics, and any late shifts in immigration or economic sentiment that could either consolidate AfD backing above 20 percent or reinforce moderation below 14 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
वॉल्यूम
$427समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent national polling gains for the AfD, including a July Insa survey placing the party at 19 percent and ahead in Berlin for the first time, have lifted expectations for its September 20 state election performance, yet Berlin’s urban and historically progressive electorate continues to cap support relative to eastern states. Fragmented competition among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW, combined with the federal CDU-SPD government’s challenges under Chancellor Merz, has produced volatile local trends that keep projected vote shares clustered between roughly 14 and 20 percent. Traders price the narrow gaps as reflecting uncertainty over final-month campaign dynamics, turnout among core demographics, and any late shifts in immigration or economic sentiment that could either consolidate AfD backing above 20 percent or reinforce moderation below 14 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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