**The federal guilty plea on August 14, 2026, and resulting double-jeopardy motion have become the dominant force holding the “No” outcome at 86.1% implied probability.** After admitting to the stalking charges that led to Brian Thompson’s death, Luigi Mangione’s federal sentencing is now set for December 18, 2026, while the state murder trial—originally slated for September 8—has been postponed indefinitely. A December 10 hearing will decide whether New York’s double-jeopardy rules bar the state case entirely. With jury selection in the federal matter reset for January 2027 and no firm trial date locked in before year-end, traders see little chance of an actual trial commencing in 2026. Ongoing procedural wrangling and the possibility of dismissal or further continuances reinforce the market’s strong consensus that resolution will slip past the 2027 threshold.