Mike Bouchard holds an 85% implied probability in the August 4, 2026, Republican primary for Michigan’s open 10th congressional district, reflecting his substantial polling lead, fundraising dominance, and name recognition tied to his father’s long tenure as Oakland County sheriff. A May internal poll showed Bouchard ahead by 32 points, consistent with earlier surveys, while his campaign and allied groups have raised nearly $1 million with over $847,000 cash on hand. Robert Lulgjuraj, a former Macomb and Wayne County prosecutor, trails at 12% amid lower visibility and resources despite launching early ads and securing some local endorsements. Lesser-known contenders including Casey Armitage, Justin Kirk, and Steven Elliott register minimal support under 3% each, underscoring the two-candidate dynamic in this Macomb-Oakland district.