Microsoft’s June 2026 announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build, followed by its August public preview on Foundry, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model demonstrated strong results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while matching or exceeding Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, all trained from scratch without third-party distillation. This fits Microsoft’s broader strategy to build an independent multimodal MAI family and reduce OpenAI dependence. Recent September releases of MAI-Image-2.6 and MAI-Transcribe-2 show continued momentum in other modalities, yet no successor reasoning model has surfaced. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conference updates, expanded Foundry integrations, new benchmark data, or fine-tuning releases that could clarify timelines for the next dedicated thinking model.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
30 सित, 2026
September 30
25%
December 31
57%
$489 वॉल्यूम
September 30
$188 वॉल्यूम
25%
December 31
$301 वॉल्यूम
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build, followed by its August public preview on Foundry, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model demonstrated strong results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while matching or exceeding Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, all trained from scratch without third-party distillation. This fits Microsoft’s broader strategy to build an independent multimodal MAI family and reduce OpenAI dependence. Recent September releases of MAI-Image-2.6 and MAI-Transcribe-2 show continued momentum in other modalities, yet no successor reasoning model has surfaced. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conference updates, expanded Foundry integrations, new benchmark data, or fine-tuning releases that could clarify timelines for the next dedicated thinking model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$489समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build, followed by its August public preview on Foundry, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model demonstrated strong results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while matching or exceeding Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, all trained from scratch without third-party distillation. This fits Microsoft’s broader strategy to build an independent multimodal MAI family and reduce OpenAI dependence. Recent September releases of MAI-Image-2.6 and MAI-Transcribe-2 show continued momentum in other modalities, yet no successor reasoning model has surfaced. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conference updates, expanded Foundry integrations, new benchmark data, or fine-tuning releases that could clarify timelines for the next dedicated thinking model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$489समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build, followed by its August public preview on Foundry, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model demonstrated strong results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while matching or exceeding Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, all trained from scratch without third-party distillation. This fits Microsoft’s broader strategy to build an independent multimodal MAI family and reduce OpenAI dependence. Recent September releases of MAI-Image-2.6 and MAI-Transcribe-2 show continued momentum in other modalities, yet no successor reasoning model has surfaced. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conference updates, expanded Foundry integrations, new benchmark data, or fine-tuning releases that could clarify timelines for the next dedicated thinking model.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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