Jess Wilson leads trader consensus at 64.5% as the likely next Victorian Premier, reflecting consistent Coalition polling leads of 51-57% to Labor on two-party preferred ahead of the November 28, 2026 election. Wilson assumed Liberal leadership in November 2025 following a party-room spill and has since released a 10-year economic plan, justice reforms, bail changes, and a first-100-days agenda emphasizing policing and housing supply. Recent surveys show her preferred over Ben Carroll by double digits. Carroll’s elevation to Labor leadership and Premier in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan’s resignation has coincided with further erosion of Labor’s primary vote into the mid-20s, while One Nation’s Warren Pickering and other listed figures trail due to the Coalition’s structural advantage in seat projections.