Napoli commands an overwhelming 84% implied probability for Serie A second place after a pivotal 1-0 victory over direct rival AC Milan on April 6, propelling them into sole possession of second in the table with 32 matches played and a multi-point cushion over challengers. Defending champions under Antonio Conte have ridden a four-game winning streak into this position, bolstered by Matteo Politano's late strike in that head-to-head clash, while Milan's recent collapse—marked by poor finishing and defensive lapses—has traders pricing them at just 9.5% despite trailing by only a few points. Atalanta sits further back after a 0-1 loss to Juventus on April 11, with Como's surprise top-four push and others like Roma fading on inferior goal difference and form entering the final six matchdays.