Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79% implied probability to Juan Carlos Valencia González's arrest by December 31, 2026, following his April identification by Mexican and U.S. authorities as a leading CJNG successor in the power vacuum left by Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes's February 22 killing during a Jalisco operation. Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar trails at 68% amid Sinaloa Cartel fractures after Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 capture, recent narcoterrorism charges against plaza bosses like René Arzate-García, and January's extradition of 37 cartel figures to the U.S. Lower odds on Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar (22%) reflect his deeper entrenchment, while intensified joint enforcement and Treasury sanctions heighten risks for exposed lieutenants like Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (41%). Ongoing operations could accelerate captures before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में किन कार्टेल नेताओं को गिरफ्तार किया जाएगा?
2026 में किन कार्टेल नेताओं को गिरफ्तार किया जाएगा?
$75,304 वॉल्यूम
28 फ़र, 2026
इवान अर्चिवाल्डो गुज़मैन सलाजार
45%
जीसस अल्फ्रेडो गुज़मैन सालाज़ार
56%
रिकाडो रूइज़ वेलास्को
53%
ऑडियास फ्लोरेस-सिल्वा
28%
ह्यूगो गोंजालो मेंडोज़ा गायटन
32%
जुआन कार्लोस वेलेंसिया गोंजालेज
76%
जुआन रेयेस मेजिया गोंजालेज
55%
जुआन पाब्लो लेडेज़मा
57%
$75,304 वॉल्यूम
इवान अर्चिवाल्डो गुज़मैन सलाजार
$5,603 वॉल्यूम
45%
जीसस अल्फ्रेडो गुज़मैन सालाज़ार
$5,775 वॉल्यूम
56%
रिकाडो रूइज़ वेलास्को
$0 वॉल्यूम
53%
ऑडियास फ्लोरेस-सिल्वा
$0 वॉल्यूम
28%
ह्यूगो गोंजालो मेंडोज़ा गायटन
$4,795 वॉल्यूम
32%
जुआन कार्लोस वेलेंसिया गोंजालेज
$58,484 वॉल्यूम
76%
जुआन रेयेस मेजिया गोंजालेज
$0 वॉल्यूम
55%
जुआन पाब्लो लेडेज़मा
$647 वॉल्यूम
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79% implied probability to Juan Carlos Valencia González's arrest by December 31, 2026, following his April identification by Mexican and U.S. authorities as a leading CJNG successor in the power vacuum left by Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes's February 22 killing during a Jalisco operation. Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar trails at 68% amid Sinaloa Cartel fractures after Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 capture, recent narcoterrorism charges against plaza bosses like René Arzate-García, and January's extradition of 37 cartel figures to the U.S. Lower odds on Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar (22%) reflect his deeper entrenchment, while intensified joint enforcement and Treasury sanctions heighten risks for exposed lieutenants like Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (41%). Ongoing operations could accelerate captures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$75,304समाप्ति तिथि
28 फ़र, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79% implied probability to Juan Carlos Valencia González's arrest by December 31, 2026, following his April identification by Mexican and U.S. authorities as a leading CJNG successor in the power vacuum left by Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes's February 22 killing during a Jalisco operation. Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar trails at 68% amid Sinaloa Cartel fractures after Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 capture, recent narcoterrorism charges against plaza bosses like René Arzate-García, and January's extradition of 37 cartel figures to the U.S. Lower odds on Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar (22%) reflect his deeper entrenchment, while intensified joint enforcement and Treasury sanctions heighten risks for exposed lieutenants like Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (41%). Ongoing operations could accelerate captures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$75,304समाप्ति तिथि
28 फ़र, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79% implied probability to Juan Carlos Valencia González's arrest by December 31, 2026, following his April identification by Mexican and U.S. authorities as a leading CJNG successor in the power vacuum left by Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes's February 22 killing during a Jalisco operation. Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar trails at 68% amid Sinaloa Cartel fractures after Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 capture, recent narcoterrorism charges against plaza bosses like René Arzate-García, and January's extradition of 37 cartel figures to the U.S. Lower odds on Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar (22%) reflect his deeper entrenchment, while intensified joint enforcement and Treasury sanctions heighten risks for exposed lieutenants like Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (41%). Ongoing operations could accelerate captures before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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