Trader consensus on Polymarket splits evenly between Anthropic at 39.5% implied probability and "None in 2026" at 39.5%, reflecting Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1504 Elo—just 46 points shy of the 1550 threshold—following its February 2026 release, which swept overall and coding categories with scores up to 1549. This edge stems from superior reasoning and multi-turn capabilities demonstrated in recent blind user votes, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (1478 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (1501 Elo). However, uncertainty lingers over whether next-gen scaling to 5-10 trillion parameters, teased for Claude 5 and rivals like GPT-6 or Gemini 4 mid-year, can bridge the gap before December 31 amid compute shortages and diffusion bottlenecks highlighted in the 2026 Stanford AI Index. Key swing factors include imminent model launches and live benchmark updates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कोई नहीं 40%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 40%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,562 वॉल्यूम
$31,562 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
40%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
40%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
अलीबाबा
1%
Z.ai
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
2026 में कोई नहीं 40%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 40%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,562 वॉल्यूम
$31,562 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
$5,082 वॉल्यूम
40%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
$3,600 वॉल्यूम
40%
OpenAI
$5,104 वॉल्यूम
12%
$5,030 वॉल्यूम
10%
xAI
$3,968 वॉल्यूम
2%
DeepSeek
$2,473 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$2,132 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$2,066 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$2,106 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits evenly between Anthropic at 39.5% implied probability and "None in 2026" at 39.5%, reflecting Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1504 Elo—just 46 points shy of the 1550 threshold—following its February 2026 release, which swept overall and coding categories with scores up to 1549. This edge stems from superior reasoning and multi-turn capabilities demonstrated in recent blind user votes, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (1478 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (1501 Elo). However, uncertainty lingers over whether next-gen scaling to 5-10 trillion parameters, teased for Claude 5 and rivals like GPT-6 or Gemini 4 mid-year, can bridge the gap before December 31 amid compute shortages and diffusion bottlenecks highlighted in the 2026 Stanford AI Index. Key swing factors include imminent model launches and live benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,562समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits evenly between Anthropic at 39.5% implied probability and "None in 2026" at 39.5%, reflecting Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1504 Elo—just 46 points shy of the 1550 threshold—following its February 2026 release, which swept overall and coding categories with scores up to 1549. This edge stems from superior reasoning and multi-turn capabilities demonstrated in recent blind user votes, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (1478 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (1501 Elo). However, uncertainty lingers over whether next-gen scaling to 5-10 trillion parameters, teased for Claude 5 and rivals like GPT-6 or Gemini 4 mid-year, can bridge the gap before December 31 amid compute shortages and diffusion bottlenecks highlighted in the 2026 Stanford AI Index. Key swing factors include imminent model launches and live benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$31,562समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits evenly between Anthropic at 39.5% implied probability and "None in 2026" at 39.5%, reflecting Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1504 Elo—just 46 points shy of the 1550 threshold—following its February 2026 release, which swept overall and coding categories with scores up to 1549. This edge stems from superior reasoning and multi-turn capabilities demonstrated in recent blind user votes, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (1478 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (1501 Elo). However, uncertainty lingers over whether next-gen scaling to 5-10 trillion parameters, teased for Claude 5 and rivals like GPT-6 or Gemini 4 mid-year, can bridge the gap before December 31 amid compute shortages and diffusion bottlenecks highlighted in the 2026 Stanford AI Index. Key swing factors include imminent model launches and live benchmark updates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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