**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations amid active conflict shape trader views on whether President Trump will hold direct talks with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.** Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei early in the fighting, Mojtaba assumed the role and has overseen Iran's negotiating position on issues including the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, and a potential ceasefire. In early June 2026, Trump publicly stated he would be "honored" to meet Khamenei if an agreement is reached, described bilateral relations as "getting along quite well," and indicated a meeting remained possible depending on outcomes. By mid-July, however, renewed US strikes and Iranian accusations that Trump’s signature on prior memoranda was “worthless” escalated rhetoric, with Khamenei warning of retaliation and Trump claiming the Iranian leader had been severely injured. Mediators continue to facilitate indirect talks, but no direct leader-to-leader contact has occurred. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines, any new military developments, or shifts in Iranian internal decision-making could alter prospects for a personal conversation within typical market resolution windows.