US-Iran diplomacy remains indirect amid ongoing negotiations following the 2026 conflict and leadership transition, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as Supreme Leader after his father's death. President Trump has publicly stated openness to a meeting, describing himself as honored and expecting one eventually depending on progress, while Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have rejected direct talks at the supreme leader level as unrealistic. Traders price a direct conversation by December 31, 2026 at low probability, reflecting barriers such as procedural preferences for lower-level channels, persistent tensions over nuclear issues and sanctions, and the absence of confirmed high-level scheduling. Key upcoming catalysts include any shifts in ceasefire frameworks, sanctions relief talks, or official statements from either side that could alter the diplomatic track before year-end.