Recent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have introduced significant downside risks to 2026 global GDP growth, with IMF April projections at 3.1 percent under a limited-conflict scenario and OECD March estimates holding at 2.9 percent. Higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and renewed inflationary pressures have driven multiple forecast downgrades since early 2026, while AI-related capital spending and technology investment in key economies provide offsetting support. Trader-implied odds cluster around 3.0 percent or below, reflecting uncertainty over conflict duration, trade policy shifts, and labor-market resilience amid elevated public debt levels. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation signals that could alter the growth trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2026 World GDP Growth
3.0% 39.5%
3.1% 32.7%
3.4% 5.2%
3.5% 4.7%
$17,704 Vol.
$17,704 Vol.
≤2.9%
50%
3.0%
40%
3.1%
33%
3.2%
31%
3.3%
15%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
5%
3.6%
4%
3.7%+
5%
3.0% 39.5%
3.1% 32.7%
3.4% 5.2%
3.5% 4.7%
$17,704 Vol.
$17,704 Vol.
≤2.9%
50%
3.0%
40%
3.1%
33%
3.2%
31%
3.3%
15%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
5%
3.6%
4%
3.7%+
5%
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Middle East conflict have introduced significant downside risks to 2026 global GDP growth, with IMF April projections at 3.1 percent under a limited-conflict scenario and OECD March estimates holding at 2.9 percent. Higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and renewed inflationary pressures have driven multiple forecast downgrades since early 2026, while AI-related capital spending and technology investment in key economies provide offsetting support. Trader-implied odds cluster around 3.0 percent or below, reflecting uncertainty over conflict duration, trade policy shifts, and labor-market resilience amid elevated public debt levels. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications, and any de-escalation signals that could alter the growth trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan