Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake through year-end, driven by the extreme rarity of these events in USGS historical catalogs. Only a handful have occurred worldwide since 1900, with recurrence intervals on capable subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries and the most recent confirmed case in 2011. Recent activity, including an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and several 7+ events in 2026, has released strain without approaching the multi-hundred-kilometer rupture needed for a 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring shows no anomalous geodetic or seismic precursors indicating accelerated risk in high-hazard zones. While sudden clustering or undetected strain buildup remains theoretically possible, the short remaining window and stationary global rates strongly support the current positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$311,780 Vol.
$311,780 Vol.
$311,780 Vol.
$311,780 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake through year-end, driven by the extreme rarity of these events in USGS historical catalogs. Only a handful have occurred worldwide since 1900, with recurrence intervals on capable subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries and the most recent confirmed case in 2011. Recent activity, including an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and several 7+ events in 2026, has released strain without approaching the multi-hundred-kilometer rupture needed for a 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring shows no anomalous geodetic or seismic precursors indicating accelerated risk in high-hazard zones. While sudden clustering or undetected strain buildup remains theoretically possible, the short remaining window and stationary global rates strongly support the current positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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