Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, justified by the extreme global rarity of such megathrust events—only five since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku rupture 15 years ago. Current seismic monitoring across major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Sumatra shows no precursory slow-slip events, foreshocks, or strain accumulation spikes indicating imminent rupture, as confirmed in recent USGS analyses and February 2026 stress tests revealing Cascadia's unusual quietude. With under nine months remaining, the market reflects long recurrence intervals (one to three per century) and inherent forecasting limits, though sudden fault unlocking could shift odds; watch USGS real-time catalogs for updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$179,343 Vol.
$179,343 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$179,343 Vol.
$179,343 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, justified by the extreme global rarity of such megathrust events—only five since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku rupture 15 years ago. Current seismic monitoring across major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Sumatra shows no precursory slow-slip events, foreshocks, or strain accumulation spikes indicating imminent rupture, as confirmed in recent USGS analyses and February 2026 stress tests revealing Cascadia's unusual quietude. With under nine months remaining, the market reflects long recurrence intervals (one to three per century) and inherent forecasting limits, though sudden fault unlocking could shift odds; watch USGS real-time catalogs for updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$179,343Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, justified by the extreme global rarity of such megathrust events—only five since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku rupture 15 years ago. Current seismic monitoring across major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Sumatra shows no precursory slow-slip events, foreshocks, or strain accumulation spikes indicating imminent rupture, as confirmed in recent USGS analyses and February 2026 stress tests revealing Cascadia's unusual quietude. With under nine months remaining, the market reflects long recurrence intervals (one to three per century) and inherent forecasting limits, though sudden fault unlocking could shift odds; watch USGS real-time catalogs for updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$179,343Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, justified by the extreme global rarity of such megathrust events—only five since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku rupture 15 years ago. Current seismic monitoring across major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Sumatra shows no precursory slow-slip events, foreshocks, or strain accumulation spikes indicating imminent rupture, as confirmed in recent USGS analyses and February 2026 stress tests revealing Cascadia's unusual quietude. With under nine months remaining, the market reflects long recurrence intervals (one to three per century) and inherent forecasting limits, though sudden fault unlocking could shift odds; watch USGS real-time catalogs for updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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