**In California's 1st congressional district, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly identical vote shares of 42.1% and 41.8%, respectively, setting up a November general election contest in a district redrawn under Proposition 50.** The new boundaries increased Democratic registration to roughly 41% while lowering Republican registration to 31%, shifting the seat from its prior Republican tilt and creating one of the cycle's more competitive House races. Gallagher won a June special election under the old lines by a wide margin, but the general-election matchup occurs on the revised map. Trader pricing around even odds for the two candidates, combined with Democrat margin buckets clustered near 40-43% and Republican win shares near 41.5%, reflects this narrow positioning and limited separation since the primary. Late-campaign developments such as turnout patterns in key counties, additional polling, or national conditions could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-01 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 30%+ 43%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 42%
Republican Wins 42%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
43%
Democrat 25-30%
43%
Democrat 20-25%
42%
Democrat 15-20%
41%
Democrat 10-15%
42%
Democrat 5-10%
42%
Democrat 0-5%
42%
Republican Wins
42%
Democrat 30%+ 43%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 42%
Republican Wins 42%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
42%
Republican Wins
$43 Vol.
42%
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**In California's 1st congressional district, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly identical vote shares of 42.1% and 41.8%, respectively, setting up a November general election contest in a district redrawn under Proposition 50.** The new boundaries increased Democratic registration to roughly 41% while lowering Republican registration to 31%, shifting the seat from its prior Republican tilt and creating one of the cycle's more competitive House races.
Gallagher won a June special election under the old lines by a wide margin, but the general-election matchup occurs on the revised map. Trader pricing around even odds for the two candidates, combined with Democrat margin buckets clustered near 40-43% and Republican win shares near 41.5%, reflects this narrow positioning and limited separation since the primary. Late-campaign developments such as turnout patterns in key counties, additional polling, or national conditions could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$43Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**In California's 1st congressional district, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly identical vote shares of 42.1% and 41.8%, respectively, setting up a November general election contest in a district redrawn under Proposition 50.** The new boundaries increased Democratic registration to roughly 41% while lowering Republican registration to 31%, shifting the seat from its prior Republican tilt and creating one of the cycle's more competitive House races.
Gallagher won a June special election under the old lines by a wide margin, but the general-election matchup occurs on the revised map. Trader pricing around even odds for the two candidates, combined with Democrat margin buckets clustered near 40-43% and Republican win shares near 41.5%, reflects this narrow positioning and limited separation since the primary. Late-campaign developments such as turnout patterns in key counties, additional polling, or national conditions could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**In California's 1st congressional district, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly identical vote shares of 42.1% and 41.8%, respectively, setting up a November general election contest in a district redrawn under Proposition 50.** The new boundaries increased Democratic registration to roughly 41% while lowering Republican registration to 31%, shifting the seat from its prior Republican tilt and creating one of the cycle's more competitive House races. Gallagher won a June special election under the old lines by a wide margin, but the general-election matchup occurs on the revised map. Trader pricing around even odds for the two candidates, combined with Democrat margin buckets clustered near 40-43% and Republican win shares near 41.5%, reflects this narrow positioning and limited separation since the primary. Late-campaign developments such as turnout patterns in key counties, additional polling, or national conditions could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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