Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting forward guidance from ECB officials who, as of April 15-16, emphasized a data-dependent approach and downplayed near-term hikes despite March HICP inflation rising to 2.5% on energy shocks from the Iran conflict. The March 19 decision held the deposit facility at 2.00% amid projections of 2.6% inflation for 2026, with a recent ceasefire easing oil price pressures and policymakers like Bundesbank's Nagel urging options remain open but leaning toward steady policy. This commanding position could shift on hotter-than-expected April inflation prints, renewed geopolitical tensions spiking energy costs, or abrupt Eurozone growth weakness prompting a cut.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSuku Bunga ECB: April 2026
Suku Bunga ECB: April 2026
No change 98.4%
Increase 1.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$714,023 Vol.
$714,023 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
98%
Increase
2%
No change 98.4%
Increase 1.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$714,023 Vol.
$714,023 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$142,370 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$110,846 Vol.
<1%
No change
$222,597 Vol.
98%
Increase
$238,210 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting forward guidance from ECB officials who, as of April 15-16, emphasized a data-dependent approach and downplayed near-term hikes despite March HICP inflation rising to 2.5% on energy shocks from the Iran conflict. The March 19 decision held the deposit facility at 2.00% amid projections of 2.6% inflation for 2026, with a recent ceasefire easing oil price pressures and policymakers like Bundesbank's Nagel urging options remain open but leaning toward steady policy. This commanding position could shift on hotter-than-expected April inflation prints, renewed geopolitical tensions spiking energy costs, or abrupt Eurozone growth weakness prompting a cut.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$714,023Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting forward guidance from ECB officials who, as of April 15-16, emphasized a data-dependent approach and downplayed near-term hikes despite March HICP inflation rising to 2.5% on energy shocks from the Iran conflict. The March 19 decision held the deposit facility at 2.00% amid projections of 2.6% inflation for 2026, with a recent ceasefire easing oil price pressures and policymakers like Bundesbank's Nagel urging options remain open but leaning toward steady policy. This commanding position could shift on hotter-than-expected April inflation prints, renewed geopolitical tensions spiking energy costs, or abrupt Eurozone growth weakness prompting a cut.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$714,023Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting, reflecting forward guidance from ECB officials who, as of April 15-16, emphasized a data-dependent approach and downplayed near-term hikes despite March HICP inflation rising to 2.5% on energy shocks from the Iran conflict. The March 19 decision held the deposit facility at 2.00% amid projections of 2.6% inflation for 2026, with a recent ceasefire easing oil price pressures and policymakers like Bundesbank's Nagel urging options remain open but leaning toward steady policy. This commanding position could shift on hotter-than-expected April inflation prints, renewed geopolitical tensions spiking energy costs, or abrupt Eurozone growth weakness prompting a cut.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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