Despite longstanding judicial arrest warrants for aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor, former Bolivian President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, a coca-growing region controlled by loyal cocalero supporters that has historically resisted security operations. Under center-right President Rodrigo Paz, who took office in November 2025 after elections ending MAS party dominance, the interior ministry reiterated arrest intentions in late February 2026 amid a looming trial, yet no enforcement actions have followed in the past six weeks. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects logistical barriers, potential for violent clashes, and recent focus on other narcotics arrests like narco-trafficker Sebastian Marset, with little momentum for a high-risk raid before May 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiEvo Morales arrested by May 31
Evo Morales arrested by May 31
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May 31, 2026
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May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite longstanding judicial arrest warrants for aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor, former Bolivian President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, a coca-growing region controlled by loyal cocalero supporters that has historically resisted security operations. Under center-right President Rodrigo Paz, who took office in November 2025 after elections ending MAS party dominance, the interior ministry reiterated arrest intentions in late February 2026 amid a looming trial, yet no enforcement actions have followed in the past six weeks. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects logistical barriers, potential for violent clashes, and recent focus on other narcotics arrests like narco-trafficker Sebastian Marset, with little momentum for a high-risk raid before May 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$9,162Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite longstanding judicial arrest warrants for aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor, former Bolivian President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, a coca-growing region controlled by loyal cocalero supporters that has historically resisted security operations. Under center-right President Rodrigo Paz, who took office in November 2025 after elections ending MAS party dominance, the interior ministry reiterated arrest intentions in late February 2026 amid a looming trial, yet no enforcement actions have followed in the past six weeks. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects logistical barriers, potential for violent clashes, and recent focus on other narcotics arrests like narco-trafficker Sebastian Marset, with little momentum for a high-risk raid before May 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,162Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite longstanding judicial arrest warrants for aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor, former Bolivian President Evo Morales remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, a coca-growing region controlled by loyal cocalero supporters that has historically resisted security operations. Under center-right President Rodrigo Paz, who took office in November 2025 after elections ending MAS party dominance, the interior ministry reiterated arrest intentions in late February 2026 amid a looming trial, yet no enforcement actions have followed in the past six weeks. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects logistical barriers, potential for violent clashes, and recent focus on other narcotics arrests like narco-trafficker Sebastian Marset, with little momentum for a high-risk raid before May 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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