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Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Market icon
Teknologi·Big Tech

Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$127,679 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$127,679 Vol.

Polymarket

40%+

$30,444 Vol.

92%

45%+

$48,271 Vol.

51%

50%+

$18,709 Vol.

32%

60%+

$30,255 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Gemini 3.1 Pro's latest FrontierMath evaluation registers around 37% accuracy—flat relative to Gemini 3 Pro's prior record of 38% on Tiers 1–3—trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 48% and recent claims exceeding 50%, underscoring persistent hurdles in advanced mathematical reasoning for large language models. Competitive pressure intensifies with Meta's Muse Spark hitting 39% on Tiers 1–3 last week, highlighting rapid iteration across AI labs. No major Gemini updates in the past 30 days, but Google I/O in May could preview Gemini 4 or "Deep Think"-style enhancements, key catalysts for score gains before the June 30 cutoff on this benchmark of unpublished, expert-level math problems testing true frontier capabilities. Trader sentiment weighs scaling progress against historical benchmark plateaus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$127,679
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Gemini 3.1 Pro's latest FrontierMath evaluation registers around 37% accuracy—flat relative to Gemini 3 Pro's prior record of 38% on Tiers 1–3—trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 48% and recent claims exceeding 50%, underscoring persistent hurdles in advanced mathematical reasoning for large language models. Competitive pressure intensifies with Meta's Muse Spark hitting 39% on Tiers 1–3 last week, highlighting rapid iteration across AI labs. No major Gemini updates in the past 30 days, but Google I/O in May could preview Gemini 4 or "Deep Think"-style enhancements, key catalysts for score gains before the June 30 cutoff on this benchmark of unpublished, expert-level math problems testing true frontier capabilities. Trader sentiment weighs scaling progress against historical benchmark plateaus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$127,679
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "40%+" di 92%, diikuti oleh "45%+" di 51%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 92¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 92% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" telah menghasilkan $127.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 6, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" adalah "40%+" di 92%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 92% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "45%+" di 51%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.