Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December 2026, edging out the 42% odds for above $36,000, reflecting polarized sentiment amid recent macroeconomic shocks. March 2026 CPI data, released April 10, revealed annual inflation surging to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by oil price spikes from Middle East tensions, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to signal openness to rate hikes from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. This bearish catalyst pressures lofty tech valuations, yet robust Q1 earnings previews and unrelenting AI capital expenditures sustain the bullish camp, with middle-range bins like $30,500-$33,000 also at 42%. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and seasonal tech earnings, where beats could extend the rally from today's 26,700 level or confirm correction risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$23,500-$25,000 77%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$33,000-$36,000 41%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
51%
$23,500-$25,000
77%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
42%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
41%
$33,000-$36,000
41%
>$36,000
42%
$23,500-$25,000 77%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$33,000-$36,000 41%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 Vol.
51%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 Vol.
77%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Vol.
41%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Vol.
42%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Vol.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Vol.
41%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Vol.
41%
>$36,000
$42 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December 2026, edging out the 42% odds for above $36,000, reflecting polarized sentiment amid recent macroeconomic shocks. March 2026 CPI data, released April 10, revealed annual inflation surging to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by oil price spikes from Middle East tensions, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to signal openness to rate hikes from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. This bearish catalyst pressures lofty tech valuations, yet robust Q1 earnings previews and unrelenting AI capital expenditures sustain the bullish camp, with middle-range bins like $30,500-$33,000 also at 42%. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and seasonal tech earnings, where beats could extend the rally from today's 26,700 level or confirm correction risks.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$52Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December 2026, edging out the 42% odds for above $36,000, reflecting polarized sentiment amid recent macroeconomic shocks. March 2026 CPI data, released April 10, revealed annual inflation surging to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by oil price spikes from Middle East tensions, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to signal openness to rate hikes from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. This bearish catalyst pressures lofty tech valuations, yet robust Q1 earnings previews and unrelenting AI capital expenditures sustain the bullish camp, with middle-range bins like $30,500-$33,000 also at 42%. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and seasonal tech earnings, where beats could extend the rally from today's 26,700 level or confirm correction risks.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$52Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December 2026, edging out the 42% odds for above $36,000, reflecting polarized sentiment amid recent macroeconomic shocks. March 2026 CPI data, released April 10, revealed annual inflation surging to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by oil price spikes from Middle East tensions, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to signal openness to rate hikes from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. This bearish catalyst pressures lofty tech valuations, yet robust Q1 earnings previews and unrelenting AI capital expenditures sustain the bullish camp, with middle-range bins like $30,500-$33,000 also at 42%. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and seasonal tech earnings, where beats could extend the rally from today's 26,700 level or confirm correction risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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