The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping trader views, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than the prior forecast—after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are still expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent thereafter. Lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation widened the long-term actuarial shortfall to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation advancing and cash-flow deficits continuing to grow, markets reflect high confidence in depletion occurring in the early 2030s absent congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
BARU
Dec 31, 2028
December 31, 2027
11%
December 31, 2028
17%
$394 Vol.
December 31, 2027
$349 Vol.
11%
December 31, 2028
$45 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping trader views, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than the prior forecast—after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are still expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent thereafter. Lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation widened the long-term actuarial shortfall to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation advancing and cash-flow deficits continuing to grow, markets reflect high confidence in depletion occurring in the early 2030s absent congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$394Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping trader views, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than the prior forecast—after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are still expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent thereafter. Lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation widened the long-term actuarial shortfall to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation advancing and cash-flow deficits continuing to grow, markets reflect high confidence in depletion occurring in the early 2030s absent congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping trader views, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than the prior forecast—after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are still expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, paying 83 percent thereafter. Lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation widened the long-term actuarial shortfall to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation advancing and cash-flow deficits continuing to grow, markets reflect high confidence in depletion occurring in the early 2030s absent congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan