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Politica·Democratici

Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera

Market icon
Politica·Democratici

Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera

Democratici 8-10% 18%

Democratici 6-8% 17%

Repubblicani 0-2% 16.9%

Democratici 10-12% 15%

Polymarket

$30,687 Vol.

Democratici 8-10% 18%

Democratici 6-8% 17%

Repubblicani 0-2% 16.9%

Democratici 10-12% 15%

Polymarket

$30,687 Vol.

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine del 16% o più? icon

Democratici 16%+

$181 Vol.

5%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare alle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra il 14% e il 16%? icon

Democratici 14-16%

$302 Vol.

7%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra il 12% e il 14%? icon

Democratici 12-14%

$187 Vol.

2%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra il 10% e il 12%? icon

Democratici 10-12%

$766 Vol.

15%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra l'8% e il 10%? icon

Democratici 8-10%

$361 Vol.

18%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare alle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra il 6% e l’8%? icon

Democratici 6-8%

$225 Vol.

17%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra il 4% e il 6%? icon

Democratici 4-6%

$181 Vol.

14%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare alle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra il 2% e il 4%? icon

Democratici 2-4%

$812 Vol.

8%

Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra 0% e 2%? icon

Democratici 0-2%

$834 Vol.

5%

Il Partito Repubblicano vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra lo 0% e il 2%? icon

Repubblicani 0-2%

$195 Vol.

17%

Il Partito Repubblicano vincerà il voto popolare alle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra il 2% e il 4%? icon

Repubblicani 2-4%

$25,796 Vol.

11%

Il Partito Repubblicano vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine compreso tra il 4% e il 6%? icon

Repubblicani 4-6%

$188 Vol.

2%

Il Partito Repubblicano vincerà il voto popolare alle elezioni di medio termine della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine pari o superiore al 6%? icon

Repubblicani 6%+

$659 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Current generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 3-6 points nationally as of mid-April 2026, driving trader bets toward narrow Democratic margins like 8-10% (18%) or a close "Other" outcome (45.5%), while a slim Republican edge of 0-2% (17.8%) remains viable amid tightening trends. Recent YouGov/Economist (April 3-6) showed Democrats up just 44%-42%, narrowing from prior +6 averages, as a US-Iran ceasefire stabilizes sentiment after the unpopular war eroded President Trump's approval and boosted Democratic special election wins. Historical midterm penalties on the incumbent party favor Democrats, but GOP framing of races as a policy choice and gains among independents temper expectations seven months from Election Day, with primaries underway in battleground districts.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$30,687
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Current generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 3-6 points nationally as of mid-April 2026, driving trader bets toward narrow Democratic margins like 8-10% (18%) or a close "Other" outcome (45.5%), while a slim Republican edge of 0-2% (17.8%) remains viable amid tightening trends. Recent YouGov/Economist (April 3-6) showed Democrats up just 44%-42%, narrowing from prior +6 averages, as a US-Iran ceasefire stabilizes sentiment after the unpopular war eroded President Trump's approval and boosted Democratic special election wins. Historical midterm penalties on the incumbent party favor Democrats, but GOP framing of races as a policy choice and gains among independents temper expectations seven months from Election Day, with primaries underway in battleground districts.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$30,687
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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Domande frequenti

"Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Democratici 8-10%" a 18%, seguito da "Democratici 6-8%" a 17%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 18¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 18% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera" ha generato $30.7K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 19, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera" è "Democratici 8-10%" a 18%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 18% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Democratici 6-8%" a 17%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.