Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56% implied probability to no Bank of England rate hike in 2026, balancing sticky CPI inflation at 3.0% through February—elevated by Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks—against softening domestic pressures. The MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 18, citing temporary global price surges amid moderating wage growth, 5.2% unemployment, and IMF's downgrade of UK GDP to 0.8% for the year. While overnight index swaps price around 50 basis points of hikes by year-end, prediction market sentiment leans cautious, with the April 30 MPC meeting and March CPI data as pivotal catalysts that could shift odds if inflation reaccelerates or eases further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$19,841 Vol.
$19,841 Vol.
Sì
$19,841 Vol.
$19,841 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56% implied probability to no Bank of England rate hike in 2026, balancing sticky CPI inflation at 3.0% through February—elevated by Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks—against softening domestic pressures. The MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 18, citing temporary global price surges amid moderating wage growth, 5.2% unemployment, and IMF's downgrade of UK GDP to 0.8% for the year. While overnight index swaps price around 50 basis points of hikes by year-end, prediction market sentiment leans cautious, with the April 30 MPC meeting and March CPI data as pivotal catalysts that could shift odds if inflation reaccelerates or eases further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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