Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, with 99% implied probability for the funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid a 0.9% monthly surge—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC statement underscored a restrictive policy stance amid resilient economic activity. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (May release) and the June 16-17 meeting, where softer data could revive cut expectations later in 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1,385,640 Vol.
Riunione di aprile
1%
Riunione di giugno
9%
Riunione di luglio
21%
Riunione di settembre
42%
Riunione di ottobre
56%
Riunione di dicembre
61%
$1,385,640 Vol.
Riunione di aprile
1%
Riunione di giugno
9%
Riunione di luglio
21%
Riunione di settembre
42%
Riunione di ottobre
56%
Riunione di dicembre
61%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, with 99% implied probability for the funds rate holding steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid a 0.9% monthly surge—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC statement underscored a restrictive policy stance amid resilient economic activity. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (May release) and the June 16-17 meeting, where softer data could revive cut expectations later in 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti