Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have anchored market-implied odds heavily toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April for the third consecutive meeting, citing solid growth and unemployment near 4.3%, while recent minutes highlighted upside inflation risks. Most brokerages now forecast a prolonged hold or possible modest hikes later in 2026, diverging from earlier expectations of easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift the current hawkish trader consensus.