Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 jobs against expectations of gains, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows. This softening follows a period of gradual increases from 2025 levels and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 median projection of 4.3 percent for Q4 2026. Traders are weighing slowing job growth and potential further cooling against resilient consumer spending and upcoming monetary policy signals. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report and FOMC deliberations that could influence rate paths and hiring trends through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$481,797 Vol.
31 gen 2027
5,0%
13%
5,5%
7%
6,0%
7%
7,0%
5%
10,0%
5%
$481,797 Vol.
5,0%
$123,341 Vol.
13%
5,5%
$200,635 Vol.
7%
6,0%
$75,518 Vol.
7%
7,0%
$31,257 Vol.
5%
10,0%
$51,046 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 jobs against expectations of gains, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows. This softening follows a period of gradual increases from 2025 levels and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 median projection of 4.3 percent for Q4 2026. Traders are weighing slowing job growth and potential further cooling against resilient consumer spending and upcoming monetary policy signals. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report and FOMC deliberations that could influence rate paths and hiring trends through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$481,797Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 jobs against expectations of gains, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows. This softening follows a period of gradual increases from 2025 levels and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 median projection of 4.3 percent for Q4 2026. Traders are weighing slowing job growth and potential further cooling against resilient consumer spending and upcoming monetary policy signals. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report and FOMC deliberations that could influence rate paths and hiring trends through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$481,797Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 jobs against expectations of gains, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent amid a shrinking labor force and participation rate at multi-year lows. This softening follows a period of gradual increases from 2025 levels and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 median projection of 4.3 percent for Q4 2026. Traders are weighing slowing job growth and potential further cooling against resilient consumer spending and upcoming monetary policy signals. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report and FOMC deliberations that could influence rate paths and hiring trends through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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