Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate at 4.2% in June 2026, down slightly from 4.3% in May, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs amid a shrinking labor force. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, citing solid economic expansion and productivity gains while inflation remains above the 2% target due to energy price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect expectations for only modest further increases, consistent with consensus forecasts around 4.3-4.5% for the year, though upcoming July employment and CPI releases plus the September FOMC meeting could shift trader views on whether policy restraint or external shocks push the rate higher.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$472,084 Vol.
10 gen 2026
5,0%
10%
5,5%
6%
6,0%
8%
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7%
10,0%
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$472,084 Vol.
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$121,954 Vol.
10%
5,5%
$199,375 Vol.
6%
6,0%
$74,370 Vol.
8%
7,0%
$29,723 Vol.
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$46,663 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate at 4.2% in June 2026, down slightly from 4.3% in May, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs amid a shrinking labor force. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, citing solid economic expansion and productivity gains while inflation remains above the 2% target due to energy price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect expectations for only modest further increases, consistent with consensus forecasts around 4.3-4.5% for the year, though upcoming July employment and CPI releases plus the September FOMC meeting could shift trader views on whether policy restraint or external shocks push the rate higher.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$472,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate at 4.2% in June 2026, down slightly from 4.3% in May, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs amid a shrinking labor force. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, citing solid economic expansion and productivity gains while inflation remains above the 2% target due to energy price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect expectations for only modest further increases, consistent with consensus forecasts around 4.3-4.5% for the year, though upcoming July employment and CPI releases plus the September FOMC meeting could shift trader views on whether policy restraint or external shocks push the rate higher.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$472,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate at 4.2% in June 2026, down slightly from 4.3% in May, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs amid a shrinking labor force. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, citing solid economic expansion and productivity gains while inflation remains above the 2% target due to energy price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect expectations for only modest further increases, consistent with consensus forecasts around 4.3-4.5% for the year, though upcoming July employment and CPI releases plus the September FOMC meeting could shift trader views on whether policy restraint or external shocks push the rate higher.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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