Recent U.S. employment data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% in August 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 amid moderating job gains averaging under 100,000 monthly earlier in the year. Slower labor-force growth, driven by reduced net immigration and demographic shifts, has lowered the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep the rate stable, while policy uncertainty around tariffs, federal spending restraint, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weigh on demand. Forecasts point to a modest rise toward 4.5% by year-end, though low layoff rates continue to support resilience. Key upcoming releases include the September jobs report on October 2 and the September FOMC decision, which could clarify monetary policy impacts on labor demand.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$495,999 Vol.
31 gen 2027
5,0%
9%
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5%
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$495,999 Vol.
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$131,919 Vol.
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$202,388 Vol.
5%
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$77,956 Vol.
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$32,690 Vol.
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$51,046 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. employment data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% in August 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 amid moderating job gains averaging under 100,000 monthly earlier in the year. Slower labor-force growth, driven by reduced net immigration and demographic shifts, has lowered the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep the rate stable, while policy uncertainty around tariffs, federal spending restraint, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weigh on demand. Forecasts point to a modest rise toward 4.5% by year-end, though low layoff rates continue to support resilience. Key upcoming releases include the September jobs report on October 2 and the September FOMC decision, which could clarify monetary policy impacts on labor demand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$495,999Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. employment data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% in August 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 amid moderating job gains averaging under 100,000 monthly earlier in the year. Slower labor-force growth, driven by reduced net immigration and demographic shifts, has lowered the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep the rate stable, while policy uncertainty around tariffs, federal spending restraint, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weigh on demand. Forecasts point to a modest rise toward 4.5% by year-end, though low layoff rates continue to support resilience. Key upcoming releases include the September jobs report on October 2 and the September FOMC decision, which could clarify monetary policy impacts on labor demand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$495,999Data di fine
1 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. employment data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% in August 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 amid moderating job gains averaging under 100,000 monthly earlier in the year. Slower labor-force growth, driven by reduced net immigration and demographic shifts, has lowered the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep the rate stable, while policy uncertainty around tariffs, federal spending restraint, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weigh on demand. Forecasts point to a modest rise toward 4.5% by year-end, though low layoff rates continue to support resilience. Key upcoming releases include the September jobs report on October 2 and the September FOMC decision, which could clarify monetary policy impacts on labor demand.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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