Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to US unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, with trader consensus pricing in modest labor market softening despite recent resilience. The March 2026 BLS report revealed a 4.3% unemployment rate—down from 4.4% in February—alongside 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that exceeded forecasts, signaling ongoing strength amid cooling job growth trends. The Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds steady at 4.4% for Q4 2026, while IMF estimates hover near 4%. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked up to 219,000 for the week ended April 4. Key catalysts include the April nonfarm payrolls release on May 2 and the May 6-7 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations if labor data weakens further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$358,383 Vol.
10 gen 2026
5,0%
44%
5,5%
29%
6,0%
18%
7,0%
13%
10,0%
5%
$358,383 Vol.
5,0%
$87,979 Vol.
44%
5,5%
$180,133 Vol.
29%
6,0%
$50,157 Vol.
18%
7,0%
$17,534 Vol.
13%
10,0%
$22,580 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to US unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, with trader consensus pricing in modest labor market softening despite recent resilience. The March 2026 BLS report revealed a 4.3% unemployment rate—down from 4.4% in February—alongside 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that exceeded forecasts, signaling ongoing strength amid cooling job growth trends. The Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds steady at 4.4% for Q4 2026, while IMF estimates hover near 4%. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked up to 219,000 for the week ended April 4. Key catalysts include the April nonfarm payrolls release on May 2 and the May 6-7 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations if labor data weakens further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$358,383Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to US unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, with trader consensus pricing in modest labor market softening despite recent resilience. The March 2026 BLS report revealed a 4.3% unemployment rate—down from 4.4% in February—alongside 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that exceeded forecasts, signaling ongoing strength amid cooling job growth trends. The Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds steady at 4.4% for Q4 2026, while IMF estimates hover near 4%. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked up to 219,000 for the week ended April 4. Key catalysts include the April nonfarm payrolls release on May 2 and the May 6-7 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations if labor data weakens further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$358,383Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to US unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, with trader consensus pricing in modest labor market softening despite recent resilience. The March 2026 BLS report revealed a 4.3% unemployment rate—down from 4.4% in February—alongside 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions that exceeded forecasts, signaling ongoing strength amid cooling job growth trends. The Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds steady at 4.4% for Q4 2026, while IMF estimates hover near 4%. Weekly initial jobless claims ticked up to 219,000 for the week ended April 4. Key catalysts include the April nonfarm payrolls release on May 2 and the May 6-7 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations if labor data weakens further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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